583
FXUS64 KLUB 181130
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
630 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The strong cap in place will again be the main issue for today`s
convective forecast. An upper level ridge extending from the eastern
Pacific into northern Mexico will expand to the northeast today
resulting in rising heights over the region. However, there may be a
few weak short wave troughs moving through the flow as winds back
more to the southwest this morning. Some weak upper level divergence
is noted in the wind fields this afternoon as wind speeds also
increase. Large scale lift will be most prominent in the Texas
Panhandle into the southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South
Plains. Surface cyclogenesis will develop in northeastern New Mexico
today with a front sliding down the Central Plains. A dryline will
again not make much movement eastward and will end up positioned
around the Texas/New Mexico state line. Low level convergence will
be decent along the dryline with the greatest convergence in the
southwestern Texas Panhandle confident with the weak upper level
lift. Despite the rising heights over the area today, mid level
temperatures will remain nearly constant. A strong elevated mixed
layer will continue to exist overhead today with what seems like a
cap made of forged steel. Temperatures at 700mb will continue to
hover around +16C. Very deep boundary layer mixing will again occur
today. A narrow but strong low level theta-e ridge east of the
dryline will be able to pump up mixed layer instability values in
excess of 2500 J/kg this afternoon. It remains unclear on whether
enough heating will occur to break the strong cap. Expected low
stratus later this morning will initially shunt surface heating.
Temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees cooler today which may
make it even more difficult to obtain convective initiation. But the
addition of the background lift may be able to get a few isolated
storms going. Therefore, we have added slight chance of storms for
the area this afternoon favoring the southern Texas Panhandle. If
storms were to develop, they would primarily be capable of producing
strong wind gusts with marginally severe hail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Model agreement is significantly better than last night with regards
to the tropical moisture moving through the area Thursday into
Friday. Although the system may soon become Tropical Storm Alberto,
the QPF values have notably dropped from yesterday, with highest
totals well south of our area. Moisture out ahead of the system will
begin to make its way in on Wednesday afternoon bringing a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, although no severe weather is expected at
this time. Thursday remains to be the main event as the northern
periphery of the moisture fetch moves across the area. Rainfall
totals will increase from northeast to southwest, likely ranging
from 0.25 to 0.75 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible,
particularly within embedded storms. Rain will taper to showers late
Thursday into Friday, ending thereafter. A series of upper troughs
may bring more storm chances to the far southern Panhandle for
portions of this weekend and early next week, however much of the
area looks to remain quiet, with high temperatures returning to the
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

MVFR CIGS were spreading northward into the region this morning
and are expected to make it over the TAF sites shortly. These low
CIGS are anticipated to remain in the region until late this
morning or early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
west of the TAF sites late this afternoon but coverage will be too
isolated to mention in the TAF at the moment. Additional low CIGS
may affect the TAF sites early Wednesday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...01