803
FXUS64 KLUB 231730
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1130 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms today, with possible severe storms
   mainly over the southern Rolling Plains.

 - Quiet conditions from Monday through the remainder of week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A upper cutoff low will track across the Four Corners region today.
This will put portions of our area in the prime PVA region
downstream of its axis. Radar already indicates widespread shower
activity across the area. As a low-level jet increases in magnitude
this afternoon, further lift will potentially lead to the
development of severe thunderstorms, particularly over the southern
Rolling Plains where PWAT values look to exceed one inch. Steering
flow will be relatively fast moving, however given the setup with
mostly unidirectional flow at all levels, a few training
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out and thus heavy rain/localized
flooding are a threat along with quarter-sized hail. Any severe
storms should commence later this afternoon and persist into the
evening. That all said, severe weather should be mostly confined to
this aforementioned area. Otherwise showers and non-severe storms
are expected for the rest of the CWA over the same time period. All
precipitation should be over by around midnight, with skies clearing
west to east overnight. Lows will fall into the 30s to the west
where cloud cover will be less, and in the upper 40s off the Caprock
clouds will be more stubborn to move out before sunrise.

As the upper low tracks into the Rockies, weak lee cyclogenesis will
occur and a surface low will develop to our north on Monday. Nearly
due westerly downsloping winds and abundant sunshine will bring a
return to above-average temperatures, with highs near 70 off the
Caprock and mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A generally uneventful week remains expected. An upper trough will
descend into the northern Great Plains by Tuesday and its associated
surface cold front will move across the area during the day. Winds
will switch to the NE by afternoon, however highs will only be
around 3-5 degrees cooler than Monday. Coolest temperatures will
occur Wednesday with the colder airmass settling in despite surface
winds gradually switching back to a southerly direction. Highs will
only generally reach the mid 50s. Weak ridging and continued
southerly flow Thursday and Friday will bring a return of above-
average temperatures into the mid-to-upper 60s. A trailing trough
may bring a more active pattern next weekend, however long-range
models currently indicate much of the associated precipitation
remaining off to our east at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

MVFR CIGs are expected to persist at all terminals through most of
this afternoon. In the immediate term, TSRA will continue at LBB and
PVW before a break in precipitation arrives in the next hour or two.
An additional round of TS is then expected after about 20z, but
confidence on areal coverage and the timing of impacts to LBB or PVW
is low at this time. Confidence in TS is higher at CDS from mid-
afternoon through evening. Otherwise, expect CIGs to fall to IFR at
all terminals this evening, with IFR persisting through much of the
overnight period. A shift to drier west winds will then result in
improvement to VFR at LBB and PVW during the pre-dawn hours, but at
this time CDS is expected to remain IFR through the end of this TAF
period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30