Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
225 FXUS64 KLUB 271721 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1121 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1118 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 - Near or just below normal temperatures are expected Friday. - Showers are possible across a part of the southern Rolling Plains Friday afternoon and evening. - A cold front Saturday will bring colder temperatures Sunday and Monday. - Flurries or very light snow is possible Monday across the far southern Panhandle and adjacent areas of the northern South Plains. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1118 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Mid to upper flow overhead will back from west-northwest this evening to more zonal on Friday morning ahead of the southern end of a short wave trough moving out onto the High Plains, although the vast majority of the energy associated with this trough will be well to the north of the forecast area over the central and northern High Plains. Low level flow overnight will increase, mainly off the deck as opposed to the surface. This will bring stratus into the forecast area, mainly across western counties initially before more widespread coverage after sunrise Friday when surface flow also begins to pick up. Persistent southerly low level warm and moist advection should allow stratus to hold on tightly through across much of the eastern half of the forecast area while western zones should see some clearing of cloud cover. This will create a scenario where highs will be cooler east and warmer west and have made some adjustments toward MOS values from the warmer NBM. Also, the warm and moist advection off the deck may result in an area of elevated instability pushing northward into the southern Rolling Plains that could be released as the mid/upper trough moving onto the High Plains interacts with said instability. Models are mainly limiting said convective initiation to the east and south of the forecast area, although a few solutions, most notably the WRF-NAM which has the most instability and the weakest cap, do convect in the southeastern part of the forecast area Friday afternoon into evening. NBM has reduced the slight mention, almost eliminating it completely, but will hold onto a solution that keeps a slight mention of showers confined to the far southeastern corner of the forecast area in that time frame. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1118 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 The upper trough over the central and northern High Plains at the beginning of the long term portion of the forecast period on Friday morning will move quickly eastward toward the Great Lakes. This will push a cold front southward down the Great Plains unleashing cold air that is firmly in place from the Dakotas and eastern Montana northward through Alberta and Saskatchewan. That cold air will arrive behind the front that sweeps through the forecast area Saturday afternoon, but moreso Saturday night with Sunday`s high temperatures near 20 degrees below normal. Another shortwave trough will dive southeastward from the Pacific Northwest late Saturday to the Four Corners Sunday night, effectively carving out a broad trough over North America that will reinforce the cool/cold regime heading into Monday. In addition, this trough will cross the southern and central High Plains during the day Monday. The air mass ahead of it will be dry, but moisture and lift associated with the trough may be enough to squeeze out some flurries or light snow. NBM expanded the slight chance of snow mention westward across the far southwestern Panhandle and the northwestern South Plains. Receiving a hundredth of an inch of liquid equivalent may be difficult, but those areas across the northern part of the area would have the highest chance, and a slight chance wording looks fine for now. Accumulations, if any, are expected at this time to be insignificant. Beyond Monday through the end of the period is looking to be generally cool and dry. Yet another shortwave trough is expected to dive out of the Pacific Northwest, but this energy is take a meridional track down the western states before closing and cutting off west of Baja California near the end of next week. In general this broadly cyclonic flow over the CONUS will lead to a continuation of cool, but moderating, temperatures early in the work week, peaking on Wednesday just above normal values for early December ahead of the next cold front. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 VFR conditions are expected through tonight. However, increasing southerly flow off the deck will bring low level moisture streaming northward overnight. MVFR ceilings are expected to move over all terminals between 12Z and 18Z Friday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07