Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
972 FXUS64 KLUB 171756 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1156 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1156 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Chances for rain showers and thunderstorms will increase Wednesday into Thursday. - Swaths of locally heavy rainfall and low threat for severe weather may develop Thursday, especially across the Rolling Plains. - Cool and drier weather returns Friday into Saturday, with rain chances returning early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1156 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 The rest of today will be relatively warm and dry with highs ranging from around 70 across the northwest to around 85 across the southeast. Surface troughing stretching southeastward from an elongated surface low across northeastern Colorado/northwestern Kansas is helping keep breezy winds out of the west today. Despite breezy westerly winds, only elevated fire weather danger is expected today across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Afternoon relative humidity will only drop to 25 percent thanks to dewpoints remaining above 30F. The one caveat is fuels in this area have become dormant and are plentiful. Winds will be light and out of the west tonight as the surface low pushes eastward across the Central Plains ind into Missouri, greatly relaxing the surface pressure gradient over the FA. The westerly component of the wind will still help keep overnight lows rather mild, low 40s to mid 50s. Winds will remain relatively light Tuesday. A passive cold front will remain just north and east of the FA by Tuesday evening. This, along with overhead ridging, will keep afternoon highs on the warm side, mid 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1156 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 There is increasing confidence in the potential for rain showers and thunderstorms to affect W TX mid-week. At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-levels will feature a highly amplified, wavy pattern over the Lower 48 and westward into the northern waters of the Pacific Basin. A shortwave trough, with a closed, mid-level low embedded within, will be digging into Baja California and in the early stages of becoming neutrally-tilted, as a negatively-tilted trough pivoting towards the Pacific Coast undergoes a wave break and modulates the position of the downstream trough. The western periphery of a subtropical ridge will also eclipse the southern Great Plains, as the geopotential height falls associated with the cyclonic flow gradually erode the strong subsidence layer over the region while the ridge shifts east. A 300 mb jet streak approaching 100 kt will continue to translate eastward towards W TX throughout the day Wednesday, with a thickening of the overcast deck expected as high-level, moist, isentropic ascent advects into the southern Great Plains. Smaller-scale perturbations are forecast to propagate through the mean flow aloft, with elevated rain showers possible along the warm-conveyor as low-level theta-e advection begins to intensify. Thunderstorm potential will remain limited Wednesday, as skinny updrafts will struggle against the effects of the strong flow and shear throughout the cloud-bearing layer. However, moistening of the low- and mid-level theta surfaces will aid in lifting parcels past the LFC where the geopotential height falls (mid-level cooling) advect an improving elevated mixed layer over W TX. NBM PoPs were shaved to 30-percent, as coverage of rain showers should remain isolated-to-widely-scattered Wednesday, with the best coverage congruent with the moist/theta-e tongue in the Rolling Plains. At the surface, a weakening cold front that moved into the CWA Tuesday night will have become quasi-stationary and connect to a lee cyclone in the TX/OK PH. A dryline will branch southward from this lee cyclone, with the quasi-stationary front expected to undergo warm-frontogenesis and lift poleward into the central Great Plains before sunset Wednesday. The warm-frontogenesis will have resulted in the moistening of the low- and mid-level theta surfaces, with large-scale moisture return resulting in the advection lower 60 degree dewpoints into the Rolling Plains late Wednesday. Farther west, the primary synoptic cold front of Pacific origin will be moving towards the AZ/NM state line and northern Mexico, and will eventually overtake the dryline by Thursday. Surface flow is forecast to remain veered across most of the CWA Wednesday, with the exception of areas east of the dryline, which will aid in boosting temperatures in the lower-middle 70s on the Caprock despite thick overcast and weak wind speeds. Rapid moistening of the airmass will occur late Wednesday into Thursday as the warm front lifts into central KS and surface winds back in response from cyclogenesis of another cyclone in the TX Big Bend. This should cause the western edge of the large-scale moisture return to encompass the entire CWA by early Thursday morning ahead of the ejecting system. PoPs are set to increase quickly early Thursday morning, and PoPs generated by the NBM have risen slightly from the previous forecast assessments. The trough to the west is forecast to meander over the Desert Southwest during this time, and will become negatively-tilted following the wave break of the northern-stream troughing the previous day. This will cause the southern tranche of the PV ribbon to dive southeastward while becoming closed off due to a poleward displacement of the jet stream, with all global NWP guidance indicating the formation of a cyclonic gyre over the Great Basin and into the Desert Southwest by Thursday. The leading shortwave trough is then forecast to eject over W TX during the morning hours Thursday, with the baroclinic leaf generating a large precipitation shield as it advects into the southern Great Plains. It appears that a widespread rainfall is possible, with rainfall amounts up to a few tenths of an inch being common, especially as high-level flow backs poleward and the 300-200 mb trough becomes open while the mid-level cyclone remains intact. Intense, divergent outflow will contribute to impressive irrotational wind vectors aloft amidst the strong difluence, with PWATs nearing 3-4 standard deviations above the climatological mean. Multiple swaths of locally heavy rainfall are forecast, but where these swaths develop remains a bit nebulous and will be contingent on the exact position of the vorticity lobe as it emerges over the southern Rocky Mountains. As the Pacific cold front arrives Thursday evening, it will overtake the dryline. The strong, frontogenetical forcing may result in the potential development of a squall line given such ample large-scale forcing for ascent. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a risk for severe-caliber storms remains possible, and would be accompanied by the typical hail and wind threats given sufficient cold air aloft and the intensity of the kinematic fields, especially if a squall line evolves in the CWA as the front moves through. The flooding potential will be mitigated by the quick progression of this system, but some localized flooding will be possible due to the potential for training ahead of and along the Pacific cold front. PoPs will wane heading into early Friday morning, and the lingering NBM PoPs for sunrise Friday were removed, as NWP guidance indicates that the negatively-tilted trough will dissolve into an open wave fairly quickly as the cyclonic gyre to the west dissipates. Cool and drier weather is forecast Friday into Saturday following the passage of another cold front from the north, with renewed chances for rain showers and storms returning by early as next week. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 VFR conditions will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...51