637
FXUS64 KLUB 031735
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1135 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

 - Colder with chances of snow Thursday morning, mainly across
   the far southwestern and south-central Texas Panhandle.

 - Generally warmer and dry into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

The short term portion of the forecast period now holds all of the
upcoming winter weather event. The weather maker will primarily be
the upper level trough digging southward over Utah toward the Four
Corners by end of day. This trough is then progged to move eastward
across northern New Mexico. However, this weakening system will
fill/shear/dampen as it moves over the High Plains with weakening
and relatively shallow lift associated with the system. As opposed
to yesterday when it looked like subcloud moisture would initially
be lacking, surface and upper air analyses are showing some low
level moisture advection in the post-frontal air mass with advection
and/or development of a stratus layer across the forecast area later
this evening. Should this be the case subcloud moistening would not
be required, thus increasing the odds of precipitation reaching the
ground and extending the window of said precipitation. That said,
there are still concerns with the weakening system. Looking at a
series of time-height sections from around the region shows initial
lift is mainly in a layer between 800 and 700 mb and is mostly
isentropic in nature with a possible frontogentic component thrown
in. This lift occurs in a warmer band of the column, far too warm
for dendritic growth, rather favoring stratus continuation and
possibly very light precip with any snowfall favoring small ice
crystals and thus having a difficult time accumulating. This lift
then dissipates while synoptic scale lift near the 600 to 500 mb
layer picks up mainly across the far southwestern and south central
Panhandle. There is some potential for a bit of dendritic growth,
but mainly small crystals are the likely form of ice nuclei, and
while the bulk of this lift is expected to be to the north of the
area, locations along and north of a Morton to Plainview line have a
decent shot of a dusting of snow to near 1/2 inch accumulation with
the main period of time for accumulating snow being between midnight
tonight and noon Thursday. Have made a few minor adjustments to the
PoPs during the period, but the main story is keep the NBM`s likely
mention across northwestern counties, tapering downward to the east
and south of that area. Finally, in general temperature profiles
favor snowfall, but early in the period and on the eastern and
southern edges of the precip field may initially have a bit of rain
and/or sleet/freezing rain. Regarding temperatures, increasing cloud
cover this evening and a slow egress of cloud cover Thursday support
a narrow diurnal range with a slight tweak upward to tonight`s lows
and an adjustment downward for Thursday`s highs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

The axis of an upper-level trough continues to sit overhead through
Sunday before pushing off to the east early next week as an upper-
level ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. Quiet weather is
expected this weekend with slightly above average temperatures on
Friday and Saturday as westerly surface flow returns to the area. A
weak shortwave trough may traverse the area Sunday, bringing a weak
cold front through the CWA Sunday morning and cooler high
temperatures mainly in the 50`s.

However, the cool down Sunday will be brief, as the upper-level
ridge begins to move overhead, bringing above average temperatures
to the area as we move into early next week aided by southerly
surface winds and southwesterly 850mb winds. Temperatures could
reach into the 70`s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Post-frontal north to northeast winds will continue mainly in a
range from 10-15 kts this afternoon while VFR conditions persist.
Stratus will move in from the north this evening, mainly in the
MVFR category, although there is some possibility for
intermittent, brief drops into IFR category around and after
sunrise Thursday. An approaching upper level disturbance could
bring some light precipitation between 06Z and 15Z, most likely in
the form of snow. The best chance for said precipitation will be
at KPVW, followed by KCDS. However, chances are too low to insert
a mention in either TAF at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...07