Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
248 FXUS64 KLUB 061731 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1131 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Breezy southwesterly winds with the possibility for patchy blowing dust across the Caprock continues through later this afternoon. - Dry conditions and above seasonal normal temperatures expected next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Southwesterly winds have already ramped up, especially on the Caprock, in response to the development of a lee surface cyclone. Some WTM stations on the Caprock have measured wind speeds above 30 mph and gusts at or just above 40 mph. Breezy southwesterly winds will prevail through later this afternoon, however are expected to remain just below Wind Advisory Criteria. Although, some localized areas could experience Wind Advisory level speeds. With breezy winds comes the possibility for blowing dust. Patchy blowing dust will be possible this afternoon across the Caprock where the strongest winds are expected. WAA from the gusty southwesterly winds and mostly sunny skies will allow current temperatures in the 50s to continue to warm to the 60s to lower 70s across the region. Winds are expected to decrease this evening as the surface low pushes southeast, weakening the pressure gradient. Concurrently, as the low pushes southeast of the CWA, a weak cold front will push southward through the region. Light northerly winds behind the front will prevail overnight and through most of Sunday. Increasing dewpoints behind the front and moderate northerly winds overnight will keep temperatures warmer than previous nights with lows in the upper 20s over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and upper 30s to lower 40s over southern Rolling Plains. Weak CAA will cool temperatures Sunday to seasonal normal with highs in the 50s expected across the CWA. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 No change to the long term forecast with warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions. Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the work week as back-toback troughs translate over the Great Lakes region and upper ridging builds over the Pacific, just off the coast of SoCal. Could see some breezy south- southwesterly winds Tuesday and Wednesday as a lee surface trough is expected to develop, tightening the pressure gradient each afternoon. Prevailing southwesterly winds will allow temperatures to warm to the 60s and 70s for much of the work week. Models indicate a cold front will push through the region sometime Thursday. This should cool temperatures back to seasonal normal with highs in the 50s for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Breezy southwesterly winds are expected to continue through later this afternoon at all TAF sites. Winds will weaken this evening before shifting to the north as a cold front pushes through the region tonight. Moderate northerly winds will prevail overnight through much of Sunday. Patchy blowing dust will be possible at KPVW and KLBB, however do not expect much impact to visibility. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.&& .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...10