813
FXUS64 KLUB 061106
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
506 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 504 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

 - Westerly winds will ramp up today, with blowing dust and wind gusts
   up to 45 mph expected across most of the Caprock.

 - Localized reductions in visibility may occur from blowing dust this
   afternoon.

 - Dry weather will continue Sunday and into next week, along with a
   gradual warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1203 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, longwave troughing persists over the Lower
48, and is reinforced by several series of shortwave impulses and
troughs translating through the large-scale waveguide. The base of
the longwave trough was progressing into the southern Great Plains,
while a southern-stream split in the trough meanders over the far
northeastern Pacific Ocean. The 06/00Z UA charts, particularly at
and above 300 mb, observed a classic subgeostrophic flow pattern
through the base of the longwave trough, with 300 mb jet streaks
approaching 140 kt over the northern Rocky Mountains and farther
east into the Middle TN River Valley. A well-defined, shortwave
impulse was analyzed on water-vapor imagery over the Pacific
Northwest, and will continue to rapidly progress southeastward and
emerge over W TX today. Geopotential height tendencies have, and
will remain, slightly negative throughout the short-term period, as
a high-latitude blocking pattern keeps the longwave trough intact.

At the surface, a lee cyclone was analyzed on WTM data near SNK, and
was slowly rotating southeastward. The respective surface trough(s)
branching out from the cyclone have since undergone meso-beta-scale
frontogenesis, with a well-defined change in dewpoints in wake of
what is now a cold front. Dewpoints were adjusted to match the
current observations, and were lowered for Saturday due to the
expectation of winds backing to the west in response to an inverted,
post-frontal surface trough evolving beneath the arrival of the
shortwave impulse aloft. As stated in the previous discussion, winds
will near advisory-level Saturday; and winds were once again raised
from the NBM, with an 80-percent weight applied from the NBM 90th
percentile, which matches the upper-bounds of the recent statistical
guidance. Sustained, westerly winds between 20-30 mph, with gusts up
to 45 mph, will be common, especially on the Caprock. Farther east
and into the Rolling Plains, winds will diminish somewhat, but
remain breezy while backing to the southwest after crossing the
inverted surface trough.

Boundary-layer heights will be capped beneath 700 mb, or similar to
what was observed by the 06/00Z RAOBs, as theta-e advection will
increase with height from the west-northwesterly flow aloft this
afternoon. Leeward pressure falls will steepen as cyclogenesis
occurs beneath the emerging shortwave impulse, but with 700 mb flow
remaining near 30 kt, surface winds are forecast to remain on the
cusp of advisory threshold. Therefore, the issuance of a Wind
Advisory has been withheld. It is possible that a couple of WTM
sites on the Caprock observe gusts near 50 mph by peak mixing, as
rotors generated by the mountain waves to the west may locally
enhance downward momentum fluxes. High temperatures will also be
about 15 degrees above seasonal norms, with cooler temperatures are
expected Sunday, as the cP airmass in wake of the cold front
modifies highs peaking in the middle-upper 60s. Winds will diminish
near sunset while veering northwestward, as another meso-beta-scale
cold front moves through the CWA ahead of the primary synoptic cold
front that will arrive during the predawn hours Sunday and shift
winds to the north.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1203 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The extended period remains on track, and no changes have been made
to the forecast. Cool and dry conditions are forecast Sunday, with
northerly winds becoming light beneath full insolation. As the cP
airmass in wake of the cold front will be modifying, highs will
range from the lower 50s in the far southern TX PH to the upper 50s
in the southern South and Rolling Plains. NBM highs were left intact
versus the cooler MOS due to the expectation for full insolation,
and as the front will have been weakening upon its passage, thus
resulting in lesser CAA. The longwave pattern will remain amplified
through next week, with the semi-progressive flow shifting poleward
as a subtropical ridge strengthens and moves eastward towards Baja
California by the end of the week. A warming trend continues to be
forecast through most of next week, with highs at least 10 degrees
above seasonal norms Tuesday through Thursday before another cold
front arrives by the end of next week.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

VFR conditions will prevail. There is a possibility for freezing
fog to affect CDS before 14Z. Confidence is too low, however, to
mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...51