Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
861 FXUS64 KLUB 141129 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 529 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 528 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 - Very warm and dry weather continues through the weekend with record high temperatures expected today and Saturday. - Gradually cooling thereafter, with precipitation chances returning mid-to-late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1244 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 The defining feature of the synoptic pattern remains a large- amplitude ridge axis stretching from the TX Gulf Coast all the way northward into the Hudson Bay region, with broad anticyclonic flow aloft in place over a majority of the CONUS. The northern portion of the ridge will begin to flatten today as progressive shortwave troughing shifts eastward over the Canadian Rockies, but this will have little impact on the magnitude of the ridge locally as 500mb heights over West TX remain near 586dam (almost two standard deviations above normal). As a result, we will see another exceptionally warm day for mid November with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees this afternoon. The record highs for the date (85 at Lubbock set in 1933, and 88 at Childress set in 1932) will be easily within reach today. Also of note, the warmest daytime high ever recorded at Lubbock during the month of November was 90 degrees on November 9, 2006. Lubbock Airport is forecast to reach 90 degrees this afternoon, and a new record for all-time warmest November temperature is certainly possible. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected today given the extremely warm temperatures and lack of recent rainfall which according to the Texas A&M Forest Service has resulted in critically dry fuels across portions of the region. Even though west winds will be relatively light this afternoon (around 15 mph), the critical fuel states and humidity values near or just below 10 percent result in some concern for fire spread today and a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for much of the forecast area as a result. West winds should remain near or just above 10 mph tonight, with very mild lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1244 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 An upper ridge will remain in place Saturday and westerly surface winds will continue under mostly sunny skies, allowing well-above average temperatures to persist. Widespread highs in the mid-to- upper 80s are again expected for much of the area. A trough will track into the Mountain West on Sunday, somewhat breaking down the ridge. Heights will fall slightly and temperatures will drop into the mid 70s to low 80s. That said, those numbers are still significantly above average. Another, deeper trough will move onshore over the west coast by Monday and gradually have more influence over our area into mid-week. Temperatures will fall a few degrees each day. The first precipitation chances (mainly off the Caprock) look to occur late Wednesday as the trough orients such that a deeper southerly fetch of Pacific moisture becomes advected into our area. NBM PoPs will be retained thereafter given the continued uncertainty, however based on latest runs, a weak ridge late-week may curtail further precipitation chances thereafter. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 VFR and predominantly west winds will prevail through this TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...30