706
FXUS61 KLWX 021300
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
900 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures and low humidity continue through Friday as
wedging high pressure remains north of the region. Temperatures warm
this weekend into early next week as high pressure pushes off the
Mid-Atlantic coast. High pressure continues to push further off the
coast Tuesday with renewed rain chances Wednesday into Thursday next
week as a cold front pushes through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure center over Quebec will build southward through
Fri morning, settling over the Lehigh Valley of eastern
Pennsylvania. Winds will turn more from the SE today yielding
scatttered stratocumulus clouds.

Mainly clear skies tonight, except for occasional high thin
clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure center will shift more offshore Fri into Sat
allowing for winds to turn more southerly. Continued fair
weather with limited cloud cover. Temperatures warm up several
degrees on Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridging will continue to dominate through Tuesday
with troughing set to return to the region by the middle and end of
next week. Surface high pressure will remain just off the Mid-
Atlantic and New England coasts allowing for south/southwesterly
return flow across the region. The surface high will gradually
push further out to sea Monday and Tuesday allowing an area of
low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and cold front to
approach from the Ohio River Valley. Until the front arrives,
expect a continuation of dry conditions and normal to slightly
above normal temperatures through at least Tuesday. Skies will
trend partly cloudy to mostly sunny as well with a slight uptick
in humidity. Dewpoints Monday and Tuesday next week look to
climb back into the low to mid 60s. High temperatures Sunday
through Tuesday will push into the upper 70s and low 80s east of
the mountains. Overnight lows will warm from the mid to upper
50s Sunday night into the low and mid 60s Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

The next chance of widespread rain doesn`t look to arrive until late
Tuesday and Wednesday next week. This is in association with an
upper level trough and cold front set to cross the region. 18Z/00Z
deterministic/ensemble guidance remain in fairly good agreement
of a frontal passage during the middle part of next week. Any
rain will be welcomed with current drought concerns. Canadian
high pressure looks to return behind the front Thursday into the
latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SE winds below 10 kt today, becoming more southerly on Fri. Sct
stratocu deck during the day, dissipating at night. No sig wx is
expected through 12Z Sun.

VFR conditions are expected with no significant weather to impact
aviation operations through early Tuesday as strong high pressure
sits nearby. Next chance of sub-VFR comes with a cold front late
Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns by the end of next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have diminished considerably across the southern waters,
and even though, there could be a slight uptick late this
afternoon or early this evening, any SCA winds are expected to
be short in duration. Therefore, have dropped the SCA across all
the waters.

No marine hazards are expected through Tuesday morning as high
pressure sits east of the waters.  Sub-SCA level winds will remain
out of the south Sunday before turning south to southwesterly Monday
into Tuesday next week. SCA conditions are possible with cold
frontal passage Wednesday into Wednesday night next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Current anomalies, storm surge models, and different ensembles
indicate moderate coastal flooding at Annapolis will continue
through the next two high tide cycles or Thu night. Therefore,
have extended the Coastal Flood Warning through tonight.
Additionally, Straits Point also has trended upwards this
morning, prompting the issuance of a Coastal Flood Warning
there as well through the next two high tide cycles. Elsewhere,
widespread minor coastal flooding will continue into Friday
morning before water levels begin to drop Friday. However, the
more sensitive sites, especially Annapolis, could continue in
minor flood stage through the Saturday high tide cycles.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for MDZ011.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM EDT Friday for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ016-018.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ017.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for MDZ508.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for VAZ054.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...LFR/EST
MARINE...LFR/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL