765
FXUS64 KLZK 220553
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1153 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Areas of dense fog are expected across central into northeast
  Arkansas this morning along and north of a weak warm front

- Scattered showers and isolated storms are expected through this
  evening

- Additional round of unsettled weather expected Sunday evening
  through Tuesday morning; heavy rainfall is possible

- Below average temperatures are expected to return across
  Arkansas by Wednesday and Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Regional WSR-88D radars depicted widespread stratiform rain
ongoing across Cntrl and Nrn sections of the state early this
Friday morning. Over Srn AR, the atmosphere has been more
favorable for organized convection and the radar has shown just
that with a mixed mode of scattered thunderstorms intermixed with
stratiform rain. Overnight, a couple of storms over Srn sections
of the state could become strong to severe.

Today, the aforementioned complex of showers and thunderstorms
will advance E across the state beneath a passing short wave
trough. Activity should wind down by midday, however new
precipitation could develop just ahead of a weak boundary that
will sweep across the state this evening.

A brief lull in activity is expected through Sunday evening as the
short wave trough moves into the Cntrl Plains before getting caught
up in the mean flow. Compact amplified ridging will precede the
larger parent trough which will bring nice weather conditions to
AR for a short time. Unsettled conditions are anticipated by
Sunday night as large scale forcing for ascent once again
overspreads the region. A strong cold front is expected to sweep
across the state in association with the passing parent trough.
QPF totals could amount to several inches over portions of the
state, however speed of system and location of upscale growth will
ultimately impact how much rainfall is observed, and where,
through Tuesday.

Temperatures through Tuesday will largely remain above
climatology for both highs and lows. Near to below average
temperatures and drier weather are anticipated by Wednesday into
Thursday as high pressure settles into the region in the wake of a
frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A slowly advancing cold front was located over portions of NW AR.
Ahead of this front, patchy to areas FG was in the process of
developing. Given this, MVFR/IFR conds are expected to develop at
most Cntrl/Srn locations overnight. Behind the front, IFR low
stratus will fill in from the N affecting Nrn sites initially,
then affect Cntrl terminals by midday Sat. Winds will be N/NW at
around 10 kts on Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  52  64  44 /  40   0  10   0
Camden AR         76  52  68  47 /  40   0   0   0
Harrison AR       71  49  59  42 /  10  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR    74  50  66  47 /  20   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  75  54  67  48 /  40   0   0   0
Monticello AR     79  58  72  50 /  30  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      75  48  66  45 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  73  50  61  42 /  20   0  10   0
Newport AR        74  55  64  45 /  40   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     77  55  69  48 /  50   0   0   0
Russellville AR   76  50  67  45 /  20   0   0   0
Searcy AR         75  52  67  45 /  30   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      75  56  67  48 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70