Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
815 FXUS64 KLZK 140827 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 227 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 139 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 -Seasonably warm conditions 10-20 degrees above normal, with highs near record levels in the 70s to lower 80s Saturday -A cooling trend anticipated into early next week, but should remain above normal levels into the middle of next week -Wetter weather anticipated starting Monday, with significant accumulations probable for the middle and latter portions of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Quiet weather persists across the Natural State this morning, thanks to surface high pressure and an anomalously strong ridge that is dominating across the central portions of the country. This is resulting in mostly clear skies, with only some scattered mid- level clouds present due to some enhanced lower level moisture lingering across the region. Winds will continue to remain out of the southerly direction over the next couple of days as ridging remains over the Gulf of America. The bigger story over the next couple of days is the abnormally warm temperatures for this time of year, where several locations may see afternoon highs tomorrow reach near record levels. As the aforementioned ridging begins to weaken, expect cooling conditions heading into next week, as a shortwave from a strong Pacific troughing feature eventually ejects east of the Rockies going into early next week. The initial wave will increase rain chances Monday into Tuesday, although moisture profiles would suggest not overly robust accummulations with this initial system. As the amplified trough across western CONUS shifts eastward going into the middle of the week, better dynamics and moisture return from the Gulf will be more robust. This will result in much more favorable shower and thunderstorm conditions across the state starting Wednesday and extending through the rest of the week as multiple shortwaves eject downstream of the longwave trough. Much better agreement amongst the ensemble and deterministic output makes this outlook a sure thing, just some differences in onset and timing of heavier rain periods. While the initial rainfall would be beneficial across the state, a look at NBM QPF amounts would suggest widespread storm totals exceeding 1-2", with a reasonable worst case (90th percentile) of 4-8" Wednesday through Friday. As we draw closer in time, gathering more details about timing and trends of rain amounts will be monitored, as well as severe potential. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 VFR conds are expected through the period. Winds should become light and variable overnight, then SWrly between 10-20 kts on Fri. Scattered high clouds are anticipated tonight and Fri with no aviation related impacts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 79 59 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 79 57 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 76 59 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 79 59 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 79 60 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 80 59 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 80 59 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 78 58 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 79 60 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 79 59 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 80 59 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 80 57 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 78 59 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...70