500
FXUS64 KLZK 201715 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1115 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 130 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Areas of dense fog are expected across north central into
  northeast Arkansas this morning along and north of warm front

- Storm system set to impact Arkansas from the plains today and
  linger into Friday; the system should bring beneficial rainfall

- Additional round of unsettled weather expected Sunday afternoon
  through Tuesday morning; pockets of heavy rainfall is possible

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Regional WSR-88D radars depicted a gradual uptick in shower and
thunderstorm activity over SW and N AR, Ern OK, and NE TX early
this Thursday morning. This trend of increasing convection is
anticipated through Friday as a storm system approaches AR from
the W. Regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
boundary draped over portions of Cntrl AR. This boundary should
meander slowly Nwrd today. Along and ahead of this boundary,
patchy to areas of dense fog are expected as increasing moisture
advection overlaps into cooler locations of N-Cntrl and NE AR.
Given this, a dense fog advisory is in effect for N-Cntrl and NE
AR through late this morning. Today, high temps should range from
the lower/mid 60s over Nrn AR, to near 70/lower 70s across Cntrl,
to the upper 70s/lower 80s over Srn AR. Near record to record
breaking high temps will be possible once again over Srn AR.

Synoptically, large scale ascent will overspread the region
beginning this morning. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are anticipated to increase in coverage from the
W/SW as forcing for ascent, low-level moisture advection, and
favorable low-level jet dynamics all merge overtop the region. A
rather large lobe of energy should eject from the parent trough,
traversing across the Plains, as a short wave trough. Lee
cyclogenesis is anticipated to develop over the plains beneath
said upper level feature. Continued forcing for ascent will
promote precipitation into the first half of the day on Friday
across AR. Greatest PoP chances and highest QPF potential should
be Thursday night into Friday morning

QPF trends through Friday have been trending downward in regards
to deterministic and ensemble data over the last several days.
What has remained consistent within the data set is the preferred
corridor of heavier rainfall. Probabilistic data depicts 20%-60%
chance of >2" rainfall across W and NW AR (centered over W AR
River Valley) and 40% to near 100% chance of >1" rainfall across
roughly the NW 2/3rds of AR. Analyzing current flash flood
guidance which presently sits at 6hr FFG of 3-5", 3hr FFG of 3-4",
and 1hr FFG of 2-3", the threat for widespread flash flooding
appears very low. Deterministic forecast calls for 1-2" of rain
for the aforementioned time span across NW half of AR (possibly up
to 2-3" in places), to 1" or less across the SE half of AR. That
said, a corridor of heavier rainfall could still occur, prompting
smaller scale flash flood concerns.

Brief lull in activity is expected through Sunday evening as the
former parent trough ejects across the Rockies and into the Cntrl
Plains. Compact amplified ridging will precede the trough which will
bring nice weather conditions to AR for 1-2 days. Unsettled
conditions are anticipated by Sunday evening/overnight as large
scale forcing for ascent again overspreads the region. Several
key features remain unclear at this time such as depth/orientation
of trough, location of surface low, and magnitude of low-level
moisture advection into the low. These features/factors will be
monitored over the coming days and will impact overall expected
rainfall amounts. Main takeaway, QPF amounts could be much higher
with this latter system than the former system.

Temps through Tuesday will largely remain above climatology for
both highs and lows. Near to below average temps and drier
weather are anticipated by Wednesday as high pressure settles into
the region from the Nrn Plains in the wake of a potent frontal
boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Area VISBYs have improved from dense fog levels this mrng, w/
lingering light precip sctd acrs the FA moving W to E. Expect
lighter precip activity thru the early aftn hrs, w/ an additional
round of precip/TS developing over Wrn AR b/w 21-00Z Thurs evng.
Otherwise, mixed batch of VFR to IFR conds wl prevail at area
terminals thru the day, w/ better flight categories persisting
acrs Srn AR, and lower categories over Cntrl to Nrn AR. Moderate
Srly winds of 6-10 kts wl be noted as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  59  75  55 / 100  90  40  10
Camden AR         77  63  76  55 /  50  60  30  20
Harrison AR       64  58  73  50 /  90 100  30  10
Hot Springs AR    73  62  75  54 /  90  90  30  10
Little Rock   AR  72  63  75  56 /  90  80  30  10
Monticello AR     79  65  78  60 /  50  50  40  20
Mount Ida AR      74  62  76  52 /  90 100  20  10
Mountain Home AR  62  58  75  51 /  90 100  40  10
Newport AR        66  61  75  57 /  90  90  50  20
Pine Bluff AR     77  63  78  57 /  80  60  40  20
Russellville AR   71  61  77  53 /  90  90  30   0
Searcy AR         70  59  75  54 /  80  90  40  10
Stuttgart AR      75  64  77  58 /  90  60  40  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...56/72