930
FXUS64 KLZK 040735
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
135 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 105 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

-Gusty southwest winds expected Tuesday afternoon across northwest
 Arkansas.

-Moderating temperature trend will persist through the remainder
 of the week.

-Dry and settled weather will prevail through the week, with low
 end rain chances returning by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Recent sfc obs and sat imgry depicted clear skies acrs the FA w/
temps once again cooling into the low to mid 40s at most
locations. In the immediate fcst, a tightening sfc pres gradient
wl be noted acrs the Srn Plains invof lee cyclogenesis. This
should result in gusty and turbulent condns acrs much of NWrn AR
this aftn, w/ sustained winds of 15 to 20 kts, and gusts near 20
to 25 kts.

Thru the week ahead, zonal H500 flow wl prevail, w/ the FA
remaining gridlocked b/w Ern US sfc high pressure, and Great
Plains low pressure. Generally mean Srly low-lvl flow wl drive WAA
and moisture advection, w/ temps and humidity trending upwards
thru the week. For most locations, afternoon high temps wl be
running 7-10 degrees above normal.

By Fri, amplifying H500 troughing over the Cntrl US wl drive
another sfc cyclone acrs the Upper Midwest, w/ a trailing cdfrnt
sweeping thru the Srn Cntrl US. Some lower Chc PoPs wl accompany
this frnt, but blended guidance is not optimistic for widespread
rain chances at the moment.

Thru the weekend and the end of the PD, deterministic guidance
remains indicative of a strong surge of Canadian continental high
pressure during the Sun-Mon timeframe. Ensemble-mean guidance is
also supportive of anomalous H850 and sfc temps w/ this feature.
Assuming trends hold equal, the current fcst would favor another
round of widespread frost to freezing condns for the FA, though,
the impacts of a potential freeze would pertain more to Cntrl to
Srn AR, e.g., where a widespread freeze has not been observed yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

High pressure will continue to dominate through the forecast
period resulting in widespread VFR conditions for all terminals.
Winds be light and variable through the night before becoming
south/southwest on Tuesday and a little bit gusty across the
northern terminals. Winds will once again slack off after sunset
Tuesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  49  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         72  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       71  51  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    72  47  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  71  48  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     73  47  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      73  49  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  72  49  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        72  47  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     72  46  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   75  48  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         72  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      72  46  75  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...56