812
FXUS64 KMAF 091936
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
136 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

- Chilly tonight into Monday morning, with freezing temperatures
  expected across portions of the northern Permian Basin and in
  the higher terrain.

- Warming trend begins Tuesday and lasts through the rest of the
  week. Dry conditions persist until at least the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 133 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows an amplified trough moving across
the Midwest, as well as a ridge developing over the western CONUS.
Our area is on the backside of the departing trough, and yesterday`s
front has cleared the region. Northerly/northeasterly winds have
been breezy this morning, especially from the Davis Mountains
southward towards the Rio Grande (particularly in/around the higher
terrain). These breezy winds will continue to gradually wane this
afternoon and start to veer more easterly to southeasterly.
Continued cold air advection keeps highs today 5-8 degrees below
normal across the region (upper 50s and low 60s generally, 70s along
the Rio Grande). The big story in the short term is lows tonight. We
have high confidence (> 80%) that Gaines, Dawson, and portions of
Lea County will freeze tonight (as well as locations in the Davis
and Guadalupe Mountains). These locations have already experienced
their first freeze of the season. A Freeze Watch was previously in
effect for portions of Culberson County including Van Horn, Southern
Lea, Eddy County, the far eastern Permian Basin, Andrews County, and
Martin County. Based on latest guidance, we have elected to cancel
this watch. While localized freezing temperatures will still be
possible in these zones tonight, confidence in a widespread freeze
was too low to upgrade to a warning (< 30% confidence). The best
chances for localized freezing temperatures within these zones will
be in Eddy, Andrews, and southwestern Culberson counties.

Highs tomorrow look similar to today`s, albeit a degree or two
warmer as return flow redevelops at the surface. Likewise, lows warm
a few degrees tomorrow night. Most locations will bottom out in the
upper 30s and low 40s. Temperatures continue to warm going into the
Long Term...

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 133 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

By Tuesday, a ridge to the west begins to shift eastward and winds
become breezy, taking on a westerly downsloping component. As a
result, temperatures shoot back into the mid-to-upper 70s and low
80s Tuesday. A weak front enters the area Wednesday morning, but
this will do little more than briefly shift winds
northerly/northeasterly. Wednesday`s highs nevertheless end up
similar to Tuesday`s. Highs 10-15 degrees above normal (which is 68-
69 degrees at KMAF this time of year) continue through the rest of
the week as a trough to the west continues to push the ridge over
our area. By Saturday, this trough begins to near the region.
Moisture will increase a bit out ahead of this system, so the NBM
has introduced some low (10-15%) rain chances over much of the area
Saturday into Sunday morning. However, a large amount of uncertainty
still exists within the models as to whether or not we actually see
rain, or if we get dry-slotted and end up just receiving gusty
winds. We will continue to monitor trends with this system. In any
case, a front associated with the trough looks to bring temperatures
down closer to seasonal norms by Sunday.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions and light winds will continue this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               33  64  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 34  67  39  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   39  66  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            38  68  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           36  59  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    31  63  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    26  62  32  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     35  63  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   36  62  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     35  65  38  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...10