207
FXUS64 KMAF 222033
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
233 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 227 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

- An approaching upper-level system brings increasing chances (20-
  70%) of showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning through Sunday
  night.

- Isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing
  quarter size hail, strong wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall
  will be possible over the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Big
  Bend region Sunday afternoon and evening.

- A strong cold front brings near to below average temperatures
  to the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Upper-level ridging continues to extend over much of the state of
Texas this afternoon well in advance of a deep low pressure system
centered off the coast of Baja. Mostly sunny skies and pleasant
weather conditions remain in place across west Texas and southeast
New Mexico this afternoon with temperatures mostly in the 60s across
the region, except lower to mid 70s over portions of the Trans Pecos
and Big Bend.

The upper-level ridge will shift eastward across Oklahoma and
eastern portions of Texas tonight as the closed low off the Baja
coast lifts into Arizona. Southwesterly flow aloft will increase
over west Texas and southeast New Mexico tonight ahead of this
system. Easterly to southeasterly surface flow will allow for a
gradual increase in low level moisture tonight into Sunday morning
with surface dewpoints gradually rising back into the 40s to lower
50s over most areas. Isolated rain showers could develop over
portions of southeast New Mexico overnight into early Sunday morning
as ascent arrives within southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the low
pressure system to our west. Weak isentropic ascent could also aid
in the development of isolated showers over portions of the Lower
Trans Pecos prior to sunrise. More meaningful ascent still looks on
track to spread across our forecast area during the day Sunday,
especially going into the afternoon/evening hours as a shortwave
lifts across our region ahead of the upper-low that will be tracking
into the Four Corners/southern Rockies. We expect scattered to
numerous showers and storms to develop over far southeast New Mexico
and the Trans Pecos and gradually spread into the Permian Basin
Sunday afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage of showers and
storms will be focused over the Permian Basin and eastern portions
of the Trans Pecos, where POPs will range between 50-70% Sunday
afternoon/evening. Strong deep layer shear on the order of 60-80 kt
will spread over our forecast area ahead of the upper-level storm
system Sunday afternoon and evening. A corridor of instability with
MUCAPE values around or slightly above 1000 J/KG also looks to
spread from the Big Bend into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin
Sunday afternoon and evening, though forecast soundings indicate
that much of this instability will be elevated in nature. Shear
and instability profiles will support a threat for hail up to the
size of quarters in some of the stronger storm cells that develop
Sunday afternoon/evening, with a localized wind threat also
possible if surface based instability can be realized. The overall
severe threat remains marginal (level 1 of 5) at this time. Some
storms could produce heavy rainfall, perhaps very locally up to
0.5" to 1" over the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. Rain/storm
chances should shift to the east of our forecast area shortly
after midnight.

Highs on Sunday should once again only reach into the 60s and 70s.
Lows Sunday night range in the 40s and 50s, except for readings
in the mid to upper 30s over higher elevation areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

A dry and windy day kicks off the work week. Guidance has the upper-
level trough ejecting across the Central Plains which sends a
Pacific front to the region late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Winds are forecast to pick up during the morning to afternoon hours
across many portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Sustained winds are expected to reach 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30-
35 mph over the plains, while stronger winds will be prevalent over
the higher terrain. This may result in another potential round of
high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains, though there is
uncertainty of how strong winds will be at this time. Blowing dust
could also be a concern mainly for the western portions of the area
where less rain is forecast to occur from Sunday. Blowing dust is
going to be dependent on how much rain occurs in this short amount
of time. High temperatures climb back to the mid 60s to mid 70s
regionwide as weak cold air advection from the front will be
dominated by westerly downslope winds aloft.

Tuesday, a surface low pressure system across the Northern Plains
sends a strong cold front to the region late Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday. Highs are anticipated to be similar to Monday`s
temperatures as the colder air arrives Wednesday. Temperatures drop
to near/slightly below normal by Wednesday where low temperatures in
most locations span in the upper 20s to upper 30s both Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. Highs struggle to reach the 60s for most on
Wednesday. By Thanksgiving, temperatures rebound back in the 60s
setting up pleasant weather conditions across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico. Upper-level ridging takes shape over the
region by Thanksgiving night which will promote a continued dry and
warming trend heading into next weekend.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions and light winds will remain prevalent across all
terminals this afternoon and evening. Increasing low level
moisture will bring the potential for MVFR ceilings across all
area terminals prior to sunrise Sunday morning. The latest TAFs
reflect the potential for ceilings with bases between 1500-2500
ft AGL by around 11Z. These ceilings may persist over most
terminals through 18Z. Isolated to scattered SHRA and possibly a
few TSRA may develop Sunday morning, but the better potential will
be during the afternoon and evening hours. Confidence was low
enough to keep convective mention out of the latter part of this
TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               48  63  50  71 /  10  60  60   0
Carlsbad                 48  69  44  70 /  20  40   0   0
Dryden                   57  69  56  79 /  20  30  50   0
Fort Stockton            55  76  51  73 /  10  40  40   0
Guadalupe Pass           46  61  41  58 /  10  30   0   0
Hobbs                    46  64  42  66 /  20  60  10   0
Marfa                    44  71  37  64 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     51  64  50  70 /  10  50  50   0
Odessa                   53  64  50  69 /  10  50  40   0
Wink                     53  70  46  70 /  10  40  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...21