254
FXUS64 KMAF 160945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 141 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Near record highs and dry conditions are expected today.

- A weak front Monday yields gusty winds, along with slightly
  cooler temperatures early next week.

- An upper-level system brings increasing rain chances and much
  cooler temperatures by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 141 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

An upper-level ridge will continue to build across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico through Sunday afternoon. A surface trough will
become established across west Texas and southeast New Mexico again
Sunday afternoon, leading to another day of much above normal
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s over most of our region.
There is a chance we could at least tie the record high of 86 at
MAF (set in 1963), but the high could fall a degree or two short of
this number. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift to our east
by Sunday night into Monday as southwesterly flow aloft returns
ahead of an upper-level trough/low that will be lifting over the
Four Corners and into the central Rockies/Plains. A deep layer dry
airmass remains entrenched over our area keeping dry weather
conditions in place through Monday afternoon. Lows Sunday night will
mostly range in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region, while
highs Monday trend a few degrees cooler (but still well above
normal) in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 141 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Tuesday, the secondary trough will dig southeast to SoCal, putting
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under increasingly southwest
flow aloft.  As the trough approaches, thicknesses will continue
decreasing, continuing the downward trend in temperatures throughout
the extended.  Tuesday will be the warmest day of the extended, with
highs averaging ~ 10-15 F above climatology.

Meanwhile, leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of the upper
trough will increase return flow, advecting rich Gulf moisture up
the Pecos River and Rio Grande Valleys, and sharpening up a weak
dryline by midnight Tuesday night.  This will open an increasingly
wet window for convection beginning late Tuesday night over the
eastern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  This activity
looks to reside over the eastern CWA Thursday as the dryline mixes
east, then expand westward beyond our western border Wednesday
night.  This scenario has been fairly consistent the past couple of
nights, only with increasing POPs.  PWATs for KMAF at 06Z Thursday
are a little over an inch, above the 95th percentile.  A peek at the
NAEFS situational awareness tables show a wide swatch of PWATs
approaching 3 std devs above normal extending from the Pecos River
northeast beyond Oklahoma.  With parameters like these, Midland
might get a little rain out of this, with best overall chances
Wednesday night.  Unfortunately, deep-layer shear in excess of 50
kts will be rounding the base of the trough, and long-range models
depicts increasingly steep mid-lvl lapse rates of around 7 C/km.
So, severe potential is increasing, and we`ll continue monitoring
for this.

The trough moves through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
Thursday, arriving with a scouring west wind/Pac front that could
result in a few hours of high winds in the Guadalupes Thursday
afternoon/night.  This will bring much drier air into the mix, with
convection tapering off to the northeast Thursday night.  Friday and
Saturday look dry and cool, with highs Saturday afternoon closing
out the forecast near normal, or a degree or two below.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions will continue next 24 hours, w/a few high clouds.
Surface winds will be out of the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               82  54  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 84  54  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   91  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            86  56  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           71  50  66  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    82  52  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    77  44  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     83  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   83  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     84  52  80  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99