543
FXUS64 KMAF 011133
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
633 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

- A cold front will bring high winds to gap areas in the Guadalupe
  Mountains this morning as well as breezy northerly winds and
  cooler temperatures to the area today.

- A warming trend returns Sunday, with above normal temperatures
  expected through the upcoming week. Dry weather conditions will
  continue through next Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Surface observations indicate that the cold front is pushing
through the northwestern Permian Basin, the southeast NM plains,
and the Guadalupe Mountains as of 445 AM CDT /345 AM MDT/. A tight
MSLP gradient with the frontal surge is resulting in localized
strong winds sustained up to 35-45 mph, with a few gusts around 55
mph at the Carlsbad Caverns NP TTU mesonet site. This gradient
will support strong winds there and perhaps through Guadalupe Pass
for the next several hours, so we have issued a High Wind Warning
mainly for the gap areas in the Guadalupe Mountains through 10 AM
CDT /9 AM MDT/.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Not much has changed over the past 24 hours.  WV imagery this
morning shows the upper ridge off the coast of Mexico, putting West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft.  00Z
KMAF raob came in w/a pwat of just 0.40", or just over the 20th
percentile.  W/this in mind, precipitation still remains out
of the question for the duration of the forecast.

Latest mesoanalysis/observations show a cold front just entering the
northern zones at 06Z.  Unfortunately, this will result in a much
cooler and blustery day than yesterday.  Latest CAMs suggest the
cold front will shave a good 10 F off of yesterday`s highs.  Highs
looks to average ~ 4-6 F below normal, with all but the river
valleys remaining in the 60s at best.

Tonight, surface winds will veer back to return flow, but go light,
combining with mostly clear skies to promote efficient radiational
cooling and allow lows to cool to a couple of degrees below normal.
Only a couple of very isolated spots in the Davis Mountains/Marfa
Plateau look to reach freezing, but temporal and areal coverage are
not enough to warrant a warning attm.

Fortunately, this cool spell will be brief, and temperatures Sunday
look to make an appreciable rebound to ~ 4-6 F above climatology,
putting most locations back in the 70s as thicknesses increase.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A strong upper-level ridge will build across southeast New Mexico
and west Texas Sunday night into Monday. This feature will remain
elongated across central and southern portions of Texas Monday
night and Tuesday. A deep layer dry airmass will remain entrenched
over our region underneath this feature through Tuesday, with
very low precipitable water values averaging between 0.25" and
0.5". Skies will generally remain clear through the early part of
the week, except for perhaps a few high clouds clipping northern
portions of our CWA on Tuesday. A surface trough will take shape
across eastern New Mexico and west Texas Monday and Tuesday,
allowing for southerly/southwesterly winds and a return to above
normal temperatures across our region. Early morning lows will
range in the lower 40s to lower 50s, while high temperatures range
in the upper 70s to mid 80s over most of our forecast area both
days.

The upper level flow pattern will transition more zonal on
Wednesday. W-NW flow aloft looks to generally prevail through the
latter part of the week on the base of and in the wake of a trough
passing from the Rocky Mountains to the central Plains and
Mississippi Valley region. A very dry airmass will remain in place
with precipitable water values continuing to average less than
0.50" through the middle to latter half of the week. Mostly clear
skies and dry conditions will persist Wednesday-Friday. A weak
surface front may enter far northern portions of our forecast area
on Wednesday, but looks to quickly weaken/become diffuse by
Wednesday night. Low level thermal ridging enhances over much of
our area ahead of this boundary, so high temperatures Wednesday
afternoon should average a little over 10 degrees above normal for
early November with highs topping out in the lower to mid 80s
over much of the region, except for readings in the mid 70s to
around 80 degrees over the higher terrain areas and in the upper
80s to lower 90s along the Rio Grande. Another round of above
normal temperatures is anticipated on Thursday as the surface lee
trough takes shape again across the region. Another weak cold
front may push through southeast New Mexico and portions of west
Texas Thursday night. Highs on Friday may be just a few degrees
cooler than Wednesday/Thursday, but still averaging several
degrees above normal with readings in the mid 70s to mid 80s
across the region. Early morning lows will continue to range in
the 40s to lower 50s through the middle to latter part of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Northwesterly to northerly winds will become sustained between
15-25 knots with a few gusts around 30 knots across area terminals
behind a passing cold front this morning. Winds will diminish by
late this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  40  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 68  41  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   74  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            68  43  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           62  44  69  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    67  40  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    65  33  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     67  42  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   66  42  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     69  39  77  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21