036
FXUS64 KMAF 291920
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
120 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

- High winds in the Guadalupe Mountains (breezy conditions
  elsewhere) and a first freeze for many are expected Sunday
  morning as a strong cold front moves through the area this
  evening.

- The coolest day so far this season is expected on Sunday, with
  afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 40s for most.

- Rollercoaster ride of temperatures next week, with warming
  expected through midweek before another front arrives later in
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 114 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Weak ridging overhead will help keep the forecast on track this
afternoon with highs in the 70s for most. However, the mild
temperatures will not last long as a strong cold front is forecast
to begin moving through our area this evening. This will bring
strong northeasterly winds, increasing clouds, and cold temperatures
behind it. Winds are expected to reach high wind criteria in the
Guadalupe Mountains (particularly the Guadalupe Pass) and the
Carlsbad Caverns. As such, we are upgrading the High Wind Watch to a
High Wind Warning, which is in effect from late this evening through
Sunday morning. We have also upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze
Warning for portions of the central/southern Permian Basin, Trans
Pecos, and Stockton Plateau as many spots are still expected to see
their first freeze of the season tonight. Locations further north
can expect to see tempertures below freezing, but are not included
in the warning since those areas have already had their first
freeze. Wind chills will make it feel colder as apparent tempertures
in the teens to low 20s are expected across the northern half of
the area and higher elevations. Sunday looks to be the coolest day
of the season thus far, with afternoon highs forecast to be in
the low- to-mid 40s for most. No precipitation is expected during
the short term period.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 114 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The Long Term forecast remains on track. A rollercoaster ride of
temperatures is expected to commence by the start of the Long Term
period. Highs rebound into the upper 50s and low-to-mid 60s Monday,
which is near normal this time of year. A shortwave trough sends
another reinforcing shot of cold air down Monday night, yielding
lows once again near or below freezing for much of the area (save
for our far southern zones). Nevertheless, highs Tuesday afternoon
end up similar to highs Monday as winds quickly become southerly
again. By Wednesday, compressional warming sends temperatures back
into the upper 60s and low 70s ahead of yet another front Wednesday
night/Thursday morning. Highs Thursday afternoon continue to trend
down behind the front, with most of the area currently forecast to
stay in the 50s (and even low 40s for the northern Permian Basin).
Additionally, a passing shortwave allows for low (10-30%) rain
chances to return to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Thursday.
By the end of the forecast period, temperatures begin to tick up
again, topping out in the 60s for much of the area.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. However, will be close to
MVFR cigs by 08Z Sunday morning through the rest of this period.
Breezy northeasterly winds are expected as a strong cold front
passes through the area this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               29  41  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 31  46  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   39  49  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            35  46  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           31  42  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    26  42  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    26  51  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     32  41  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   33  41  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     31  43  31  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to noon
     CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for Crane-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Ector-Loving-Midland-Pecos-Reagan-
     Reeves County Plains-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Sunday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55