681
FXUS64 KMAF 271103
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
503 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 502 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

- Mild and quiet weather is ahead for the Thanksgiving holiday.

- A disturbance brings low (20-40%) rain chances to the Permian
  Basin and both the Upper and Lower Trans Pecos Friday. Best (30-40%)
  chances will be over the Lower Trans Pecos.

- A strong cold front arrives Saturday evening, bringing much
  colder temperatures to start off a new week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Mid to upper level ridging and surface high pressure retreating
eastward facilitate a transition to south/southeast upslope winds
for Thanksgiving Day. VIS/IR imagery early this morning displays
thin high clouds in northwest flow aloft while weak ridging persists
over the Desert SW. Troughing developing in the mid to upper pattern
over the Great Basin into Pacific SW today induces a weak stationary
front over the Permian Basin to retrograde west. This motion prompts
a low-level mass response characterized by a shift from light
west/southwest winds to the west of the boundary and light southerly
winds east of the boundary to south/southeast winds areawide.
Resulting moisture advection drives dew point temperatures from the
30s F into the 40s F across the Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and
Rio Grande basins. Weak ridging today supports highs at least 10F to
15F warmer than yesterday, mid to upper 60s F, upper 50s to lower
60s F higher elevations of Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau, and 70s F
Rio Grande basins into Terrell County. Continued increases in dew
point temperature on persistent southeast winds tonight result in
lows at least 5F to 10F warmer than last night. Lows tonight range
from the mid 30s F higher terrain and northern SE NM plains into
northwest Permian Basin, to mid to upper 40s F elsewhere.

Lee cyclogenesis intensifying east of the northern and central
Rockies from CO into MT Friday morning forces a deepening low-level
pressure gradient and increasing breezy to gusty southeast winds
over central and eastern portions of the area by early Friday
morning. Quasi-zonal flow downstream of weak troughing over the
Great Basin into Pacific SW allows subtle short waves to ripple
overhead accompanied by increased lift, moisture, and
instability. Low to moderate (25% to 40%) rain probabilities are
present over Terrell County into southern and eastern Permian
Basin Friday morning through early afternoon. However, rainfall
intensities and coverage are expected to stay small since forecast
soundings display drier air at mid to upper levels constraining
vertical convective development. Clearer skies to the west of this
region of increased cloud cover and PoPs allows highs Friday to
rise into the 60s and 70s F, whereas persistent cloud cover and
PoPs to the east keep highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s F. The
upper storm system develops farther southeast into the northern
and central High Plains Friday evening. Winds shift
south/southwest in response, and lower dew point temperatures in
the 30s F are advected back into western higher terrain while dew
point temperatures continue increasing into the upper 40s to mid
50s F over central and eastern parts of the area beneath
persistent cloud cover. All of this in addition to continued WAA
keeps lows similar to tonight west of the central into eastern
Stockton Plateau, but warmer and in the lower to mid 50s F over
the central and eastern Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and
Terrell County. Gusty winds continue into the early weekend, but
the precipitation chances persist after then. The return to milder
temperatures that begins today is also expected to be short-
lived. Read the long term discussion for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Rain chances taper down Friday evening as an upper-level
disturbance departs to our east. Lows Friday night mainly cool
into the 40s across the region. The aforementioned trough swings
from the Rockies into the Plains Saturday. The resultant surface
lee trough sends a strong cold front down into the Panhandle
Saturday afternoon. Temperatures ahead of the front are currently
forecast to top out in the upper 60s to low 70s Saturday, though
this is dependent on the exact time of arrival of the cold front.
At the moment, FROPA at MAF looks to be around sunset Saturday.
In either case, expect gusty northerly winds as the cold front
pushes in. By Sunday morning, temperatures will be in the 20s in
our northern counties, 30s for almost everyone else, and low 40s
along the Rio Grande. MAF looks to finally see its first freeze of
the season Sunday morning. In stark contrast to Saturday,
temperatures Sunday afternoon will only warm into the mid 40s to
low 50s. Temperatures Sunday night cool a few degrees more than
the previous night, then rebound into the low 50s to low 60s
Monday.

Another upper trough looks to digs into the Desert Southwest early
Monday before swinging into our region late Monday into Tuesday.
Winds in the Guadalupes may become strong as the system arrives. The
approaching system also looks to potentially draw in some moisture
along with it Monday into early Tuesday afternoon. Depending on the
exact track of this system, as well as coinciding temperature and
moisture profiles, there may be a chance of precipitation
(potentially frozen in our northern counties). However, models are
trending toward a northern track, which would lead to drier
conditions for our region. Likewise, the NBM has also continued to
trend downward in PoPs during this time frame. As of now,
precipitation looks unlikely. Details will become clearer as the
system materializes.

Potential precipitation aside, temperatures continue an upward trend
Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of yet another trough developing near
Baja. Highs in the 50s are forecast for most of the region Tuesday,
with 60s growing in coverage west of the Pecos River as compared to
Monday. Wednesday, highs in the mid 60s to low 70s return to the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions forecast at all terminals until 08Z-11Z Friday
when MVFR or lower CIGs develop for terminals from eastern into
central Permian Basin. Uncertainty is present regarding how far
west MVFR or lower CIGs develop, but highest probability of MVFR
or lower CIGs at this time is moderate (45% to 60%) for terminals
from the central Permian Basin into easternmost Stockton Plateau
at the end of the period. For terminals in this region, low to
moderate (25% to 40%) probability of showers but VIS remaining VFR
are indicated. Northwest winds veer to southeast by 17Z-23Z,
becoming breezy 06Z-11Z up to or just above 15 knots for terminals
over Stockton Plateau into southern and central Permian Basin and
Lea County in SE NM thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  45  62  52 /   0   0  30  10
Carlsbad                 65  41  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   69  50  65  51 /   0   0  40   0
Fort Stockton            68  49  72  50 /   0  10  40   0
Guadalupe Pass           60  44  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    65  40  66  42 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                    68  37  67  38 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     65  46  63  50 /   0   0  30   0
Odessa                   65  47  63  50 /   0   0  30   0
Wink                     65  46  68  44 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...94