228
FXUS64 KMAF 011825
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
125 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

- A warming trend returns Sunday, with above normal temperatures
  expected through the upcoming week. Dry weather conditions will
  persist through next Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The cold front that entered the region this morning continues to
move south and has now cleared the Rio Grande. Temperatures have
remained mostly in the 60s behind the front with gusty northerly
winds slowly starting to diminish. Surface high pressure will settle
over the S. Plain overnight allowing lows to drop into the 30s/40s
areawide. Southerly winds return Sunday as mid level ridging builds
back in from the west. Dry air and plenty of sunshine will allow
temperatures to climb back into the 70s, with even some 80s along
the river valleys. Southerly winds stay elevated Sunday night
keeping temperatures mostly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The warming trend continues in the long-term period. Monday and
Tuesday, the upper-level ridge parks over west Texas further
increasing temperatures due to more subsidence. A surface high
pressure system is also expected to be centered over the Lower
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, veering warm winds from
the south. As a result, highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s
to mid 80s for most locations both days. Quasi zonal flow takes
shape in the upper levels by Wednesday shifting to westerly flow
aloft. Guidance also shows a prevalent low-level thermal ridge
developing over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Wednesday
afternoon as a weak boundary approaches from the Texas Panhandle.
This will push highs into the low to upper 80s for most locations
which looks to be the warmest day next week. Lows throughout next
week are not going to differ much being in the 40s to mid 50s
each morning. By late next week, long range guidance is becoming
in more agreement with a shortwave trough moving through portions
of the Central Plains which will send a weak cold front to the
region. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with the
exact timing and positioning of the trough. Latest trends show the
cold front arriving later than previously predicted (late
Friday/early Saturday) due to the slower progression of the
trough. Nevertheless, dry conditions are anticipated to persist
along with temperatures staying above normal for this time of
year.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Gusty north winds continue behind the cold front before
diminishing around sunset. Winds will return to the south late in
the period with VFR prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               41  74  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 40  80  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   45  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            43  79  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           43  69  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    39  74  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    32  71  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     43  74  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   43  73  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     40  76  42  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...29