420
FXUS64 KMAF 081123
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
523 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

- Above-normal temperatures through much of this week before a
  front arrives towards the weekend.

- Precipitation chances remain near-zero through the forecast
  period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 130 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The Short Term forecast remains on track. Northwesterly flow aloft
is evident over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning.
Skies are clear, and winds have generally shifted back to a
southeasterly or southerly direction areawide. These factors will
help temperatures tick up a couple of degrees today relative to
yesterday. Highs in the mid-to-upper 60s will be prevalent across
the region this afternoon. Meanwhile, clear skies and light winds
help lows bottom out in the 30s for most locations, with
temperatures near freezing in the northern Permian Basin and closer
to 40F along the Rio Grande. Winds take on more of a downsloping
component Tuesday as thicknesses increase over the area. As a
result, highs Tuesday end up in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s,
which is about 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year.
Rain chances are nil through the Short Term.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 130 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The forecast remains on track with dry conditions and a roller
coaster ride in temperatures throughout the extended (though
temperatures still remain above normal). Afternoon highs on
Wednesday cools 3-6 degrees relative to Tuesday`s highs for many as
a cold front pushes through our northern counties before becoming
diffuse. Highs on Thursday climb back into the mid-to-upper 70s for
most as winds veer back to the west, creating a downsloping effect.
However, ensemble guidance shows a shortwave moving over the Central
Rockies during the late Thursday evening/early Friday morning time
frame, potentially sending another cold front our way. If this were
to verify, temperatures could once again drop into the 60s for most
Friday afternoon. The NBM now continues to show temperatures cooling
into the upper 50s to low 60s for many behind the front by the
weekend. However, ensembles show a lot of spread in the temperature
data. For example, the LREF 25th percentile shows highs only in the
upper 40s to low 50s on Saturday while the 75th percentile shows
highs in the mid 60s. With that said, temperatures are trending near
the ensemble mean at this time. What ends up becoming reality all
really depends on frontal timing and strength. We will continue to
monitor trends in the data and make adjustments in future forecast
packages as needed.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Southeasterly/southerly winds gradually
become more southwesterly tonight and through the end of the period.
Some gusts between 18-22 kts are expected at MAF and HOB this
afternoon, but winds otherwise remain light (sustained between 5-10
kts).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  35  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 66  33  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   65  37  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            69  38  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           57  37  60  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    63  33  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    63  29  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     64  36  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   63  36  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     64  31  71  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13