552
FXUS64 KMAF 141943
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
143 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

- Near record highs and dry conditions are expected through the
  weekend.

- A weak front Monday yields gusty winds, along with slightly
  cooler temperatures early next week.

- An upper-level system brings more seasonable temperatures and
  low rain chances (20-40%) by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 139 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Temperatures remain above normal and near record territory within
the short term period courtesy of upper-level ridging. Lows tonight
and tomorrow bottom out in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday is on
track to break another daily record high. The temperature to beat is
84 degrees, set back in 1963 and tied in 2021. Currently, the
forecast high for Saturday is 86 degrees, under sunny to mostly
sunny skies. Saturday`s highs shall generally range within the 80s
areawide. While the ridge hovers overhead through much of the
weekend, a cut-off low lingers near SoCal. This feature will
eventually push the ridge eastward and play a role in our weather
heading into the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 139 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

By Sunday, the ridge begins to move off to the east of West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico. Nevertheless, its influence, coupled with
westerly downsloping winds, keep temperatures near record territory.
However, confidence is at least lower (< 40%) that we actually hit
the record of 86 this day at KMAF. In any case, unseasonably warm
temperatures persist, with highs once again topping out in the low-
to-mid 80s for much of the region. By Monday, a shortwave trough
moving to the north of our area sends a Pacific front our way.
Temperatures will remain well above normal behind this front, though
at least a couple of degrees cooler (upper 70s and low 80s for
most). The front will, however, usher in some rather breezy winds
Monday.

Temperatures Tuesday look similar to those of Monday. However, by
Tuesday cloud cover begins to increase across the area as a large
upper-level system approaches from the west. Increasing moisture,
paired with lift from this system yields increasing rain chances by
midweek. Details regarding system timing are still uncertain, so at
this point low (20-40%) rain chances are maintained Wednesday
through early Friday morning. Meanwhile, temperatures gradually
decrease through the remainder of the extended. By Thursday and
Friday, highs in the upper 60s and low 70s can be expected areawide
(which is still slightly above normal for this time of year, but
overall much closer to seasonal norms than we have been recently).
Trends in temperatures, rain chances, and winds will be closely
monitored over the next few days. Stay tuned!

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions prevail along with generally light winds out of the
south and southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               55  87  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 49  86  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   52  84  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            56  89  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           55  76  53  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    49  85  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    46  83  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     55  86  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   56  85  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     50  86  52  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...95