230
FXUS64 KMAF 031722
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1122 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1120 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Warming trend continues today ahead of another strong cold front
  bringing temperatures down well below normal Thursday.

- Low (10-20%) precipitation chances tonight into early Thursday.
  Snow flurries possible across southeast New Mexico and Guadalupe
  Mountains Thursday morning. Little to no accumulation along with
  no travel impacts expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A quiet night is underway with temperatures much more mild than last
night, mostly in the 40s. Strong winds across the Guadalupe
Mountains have subsided and will move forward with canceling the
High Wind Warning.

A cold front will move into the region today, but not before
stalling across the Northern Permian Basin. This will allow
temperatures to warm mostly into the 70s south of the front. Once we
get to sunset the front will get a strong push south. Expected gusty
northeast winds across the area with temperatures falling quickly
into the 40s. A weak upper level storm system over the Four Corners
will move across the region Thursday. Ahead of this system, enhanced
lift will help develop a band of precipitation Thursday morning
across the TX PH west into E NM. This precipitation could clip
northern Lea County with flurries or some very light snow as
temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s at that
time. Very dry air at the mid level of the atmosphere will limit
precip extent and no impacts are expected at this time. This could
change if a band of snow were to set up over a particular area so we
will keep an eye on this moving forward. Elsewhere, expect dry
conditions although chilly. Temperatures will stay in the 40s for
most locations Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1226 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A big warming trend takes us to the end of the week with no cold air
in sight for a while. Westerly, downslope flow returns Friday into
the weekend allowing highs to climb back above normal into the 60s.
Winds will be on the increase, especially Saturday as mid level flow
increases. High winds will be possible across the Guadalupe
Mountains within this flow regime. A weak front arrives Sunday, but
you`ll hardly notice as temperatures remain above normal.
Northwesterly flow remains intact through much of next week keeping
the region dry and warm.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Light
northeasterly winds persist behind a front. Gusts pick up to
around 20-25kts late tonight and decrease by tomorrow morning.
MVFR CIGs approach KMAF tomorrow morning, but uncertainty remains
regarding impact to terminal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  32  42  33 /   0  10  10  10
Carlsbad                 68  33  46  31 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                   70  42  52  40 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Stockton            75  36  47  38 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           59  31  43  36 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                    64  28  44  29 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                    68  31  53  32 /   0   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     70  33  44  35 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                   70  33  44  35 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                     70  34  46  33 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...93