968
FXUS64 KMAF 131103
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
503 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 502 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

- Near record warmth and dry weather conditions expected through
  the weekend.

- An upper-level storm system late this weekend brings cooler
  temperatures and gusty winds early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 158 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VIS/IR satellite imagery early this morning again repeats the story
of the past few weeks: little in the way of any clouds as mid to
upper ridging in the upper air pattern and accompanying large scale
sinking motion holds. What has changed notably from past forecasts
is a much slower track of an upper storm system over the Pacific
Coast. This will prolong the warm and dry weather we have been
experiencing.Light and variable winds early this morning will renew
a more westerly trajectory as west/southwest winds throughout the
lower atmosphere ahead of a storm system over the Pacific Coast
increase. The westerly downsloping winds and resulting adiabatic
compressional warming allow highs everywhere to rise a few degrees
warmer than yesterday, translating to mid to upper 80s F, mid to
upper 70s F higher elevations, and upper 80s to 90s F along Rio
Grande from Presidio Valley into Big Bend. With warmer daytime
temperatures but dew point temperatures remaining in the 20s and
30s F west of Big Bend into central Permian Basin despite dew
point temperatures rising into the 40s F for points east,
overnight cooling will continue to allow lows to be 25 to 30
degrees lower than highs. This will translate to lower to mid 50s
F, mid to upper 40s F Davis Mountains, basins of Culberson County,
Upper Trans Pecos into SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin.
By Friday, further establishment of a pre-frontal trough as the
upper storm system develops closer to the area over the Great
Basin and Desert SW will increase west/southwest flow, with breezy
to gusty conditions by afternoon over most of the Permian Basin
into Stockton Plateau. Clouds will increase due to slower
approach of the upper storm system and associated increased
moisture, evidenced by forecast dew point temperatures remaining
largely below 45F. Cooler temperatures and non-zero rain chances
will have to wait until possibly next week. More on that in the
long term discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Upper-level ridging continues to stay over the region through the
weekend. This will promote downslope winds creating more days of
near-record to record-breaking warmth and persistent dry conditions
across the forecast area. High temperatures range in the low to
upper 80s for most on both days. The KMAF record high on Saturday is
84F (set back in 2021) with the current forecast high being 86F,
meanwhile the record high on Sunday is 86F (set back in 1963) with
forecast high being 85F.

Sunday night, guidance has the upper-level ridge weakening as an
upper-level storm system ejects across the Rockies and Central
Plains. This will send a Pacific front to the region bringing the
near-record warmth to an end while winds increase across the region
on Monday. There remains uncertainty about the timing of the
frontal passage, however, long-range guidance is coming in more
agreement with a late Sunday to Monday timeframe arrival. Monday and
Tuesday highs are forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower 80s for
most locations with Tuesday having slightly cooler temperatures. Dry
weather is expected to persist early next week due to the most
amount of upper-level ascent and moisture staying north of the
region. By the middle of next week, guidance signals another upper-
level storm system developing to our west ushering in rain chances.
Cluster analysis has various solutions of the positioning, timing,
and strength of the storm system hinting at high uncertainty.
Details of this secondary system should be ironed out as we get
closer to next week. Stay up to date with the latest forecast!

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions forecast throughout TAF period. Light northerly
winds give way to south/west winds by 01Z-6Z Friday at terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               84  52  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 85  48  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   83  51  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            87  54  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           75  54  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    83  47  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    81  44  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     83  53  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   83  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     85  46  84  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94