


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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909 FXUS64 KMAF 180755 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 255 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 153 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - Low (30% to 40%) chance of showers/storms this morning in the eastern Permian Basin. - Dry conditions with up and down temperatures expected from the latter part of this weekend through the rest of the extended. - High temperatures yo-yo up and down the next seven days from the mid 70s to the lower 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Radar this morning shows scattered showers developing in southeastern New Mexico and the western Permian Basin. It is always nice to get some rainfall though totals will mostly be less than a tenth of an inch and not provide much relief. This activity will move across the Permian Basin quickly this morning due to a rapidly moving upper trough and should exit our CWA by this afternoon. The passage of the trough brings drier air in today, then a cold front tonight dropping lows down into the lower 50s and even some mid to upper 40s in southeastern New Mexico and the northern basin. Sunday morning will be the coldest morning since the spring and a reminder that yes, fall has arrived. Highs Sunday reach the upper 70s to lower 80s making a very pleasant day for outdoor activities. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 The upper pattern next week will be progressive with several upper troughs transiting the central United States. These troughs sent cold fronts into West Texas and eastern New Mexico causing temperatures to fluctuate up and down with highs ranging from the 70s to the low 90s. After the cold front on Sunday, another arrives on Tuesday with a third moving in on Friday. The intervening days will see periods of above normal temps. None of the systems the next seven days will generate enough lift for rainfall so there are no rain chances after today. Hennig && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across far southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and portions of the Upper Trans Pecos region overnight into early Saturday morning. We did keep PROB30 mention for TSRA in at all terminals except KCNM and KFST (where confidence was lower) between 07-14Z. A brief period of MVFR conditions with gusty winds and brief heavy rain may occur with any shower/storm activity. Skies will clear Saturday morning with winds shifting W/NW at 15-20 knots with gusts over 25 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 84 51 78 57 / 40 0 0 0 Carlsbad 84 50 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 93 56 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 85 53 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 72 50 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 81 46 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 76 45 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 85 52 79 57 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 83 52 78 57 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 85 50 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...21