610
FXUS64 KMAF 262045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

- Chilly weather today is replaced by mild and quiet weather for
  Thanksgiving.

- There is a slight chance (<22%) chance or rain and snow showers
  Monday morning in far northern Lea County north of Tatum, with
  no accumulations expected.

- High winds are possible for a few hours in the Guadalupe and
  Delaware Mountains Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

The front that moved through last night has now cleared our area and
is pushing into northern Mexico. Behind it, temperatures are quite a
bit cooler than yesterday`s. Highs are still forecast to top out in
the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the region (70s along the
Rio Grande). For reference, these temperatures are about 2-4 degrees
below normal for this time of year. Lows tonight stay chilly (mid
30s to low 40s, with temperatures near/below freezing in the far
northern Permian Basin) under mostly clear skies. Nevertheless,
southerly winds are redeveloping at the surface this afternoon as
post-frontal high pressure shifts off to the east/southeast.
Meanwhile, upper-level winds become more northwesterly as a ridge
starts to move our direction from the west. By tomorrow, heights
increase as weak ridging moves overhead, setting up a mild and quiet
Thanksgiving Day! High temperatures rebound back into the mid-to-
upper 60s, right around/a couple of degrees above seasonal norms.
Lows Friday morning bottom out in the 40s for most (upper 30s in the
higher terrain and far northern Basin) as southerly/southeasterly
winds bring some moisture back into the eastern half of the area.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Friday, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are forecast to be under
zonal flow aloft, w/models advertising subtle shortwaves moving
through the region.  This could kick off a few -SHRA during the day
and evening, mainly in the better moisture to the east. Temperatures
will remain cool, within a couple of degrees of normal most
locations.

Saturday, flow aloft trend northwest as the next trough approaches.
Westerly surface winds will add a downslope warming component to the
mix, along with compressional warming ahead of a cold front.  The
will yield the "warmest" day of the forecast as highs top out a
whopping ~ 7-9 F above climatology.

Unfortunately, the aforementioned cold front arrives Saturday
afternoon/night, w/latest GFS buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around sundown.  This looks to be the strongest front so far this
fall, w/CAA along bringing perhaps the first freeze to parts of the
Permian Basin and Texas upper Trans Pecos.  Sunday looks equally
disconsolate, with highs struggling to top out ~ 12-14 F below
normal.

Monday, temperatures begin a slow recovery, but a secondary trough
is forecast to approach the area kicking off a few showers over the
northern zones Monday morning.  Forecast soundings suggest a mix of
rain/snow showers or just snow showers in far northern Lea County
north of Tatum, but chances have come down considerably from 24
hours ago, and no accumulations are anticipated.  Obviously, this
bears watching.

The trough arrives Monday night, the trajectory of which may result
in a few hours of high winds in the Guadalupes.  Tuesday, return
flow resumes, and the warmup continues under dry, northwesterly flow
aloft.  This will transition to southwest on Wednesday as a tertiary
trough begins digging through California.  High Wednesday afternoon
should round out the extended a degree or so above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions prevail as low clouds from this morning start to mix
out. Southeasterly/southerly winds generally remain light (7-11 kts)
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               37  64  44  61 /   0   0   0  30
Carlsbad                 34  65  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   44  69  49  64 /   0   0   0  30
Fort Stockton            41  68  47  70 /   0   0   0  30
Guadalupe Pass           40  60  44  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    33  64  39  64 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    32  68  37  66 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     39  65  47  61 /   0   0   0  20
Odessa                   40  65  47  61 /   0   0   0  20
Wink                     36  65  45  68 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...13