833
FXUS64 KMAF 240440
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1040 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1036 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- A few severe storms capable of producing quarter size hail or
  larger and strong winds will be possible over the Permian
  Basin, Trans Pecos, and eastern Big Bend region this afternoon
  and evening.

- Heavy rainfall could lead to an instance or two of flash
  flooding over the eastern Permian Basin late this afternoon
  through late this evening.

- A strong cold front brings near to below average temperatures
  to the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 154 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A mid to upper-level low continues to lift from Arizona toward the
Four Corners early this afternoon, with southwesterly flow aloft
spreading across southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas in
advance of this feature. Surface winds continue to veer
southeasterly to southerly across areas along and east of the
Pecos River, where surface dewpoints are rising into the 50s.
Isolated to scattered showers/storms have already developed late
this morning/early this afternoon over the northeast Permian
Basin as a shortwave trough embedded within the southwesterly flow
aloft moved from northern portions of our CWA into the South
Plains/Texas Panhandle. Additional shortwave perturbations will
lift into our forecast area this afternoon and evening as the
upper-level storm system translates into the southern Rockies. A
dryline will become established over far southeast New Mexico into
the Trans Pecos and Big Bend region this afternoon and we expect
storms to initiate along this feature as the shortwave perturbations
move overhead. CAMs have been pretty consistent with initial storm
development over the Upper Trans Pecos/western Permian Basin by
2-3 PM CST. Storms should gradually become organized as they
spread eastward through much of the Permian Basin this afternoon
and evening. Other isolated storms may develop into the Lower
Trans Pecos and eastern Big Bend this afternoon. Strong deep-
layer shear (60-80 kt) will be in place over areas within the
moist sector of our CWA this afternoon, while the atmosphere
continues to de-stabilize with afternoon/early evening MLCAPE
values ranging up to 1000-1500 J/KG per forecast soundings. Shear
and instability profiles will mainly support a large hail threat
(up to at least quarter to ping pong ball size) with supercells
that develop across the Permian Basin and into the Lower Trans
Pecos this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds up to 60 mph will
also be possible. Forecast soundings/hodographs do show some
slight curvature in the low levels over the Permian Basin this
afternoon/evening with effective storm relative helicity values
up to 100-200 m2/s2. While the overall tornado threat appears to
be very low, a tornado cannot be entirely ruled out with
supercells that develop within this environment.

CAMs have also been relatively consistent with the development of an
additional line of showers/thunderstorms over the eastern and
southeastern Permian Basin and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos
and I-10 corridor along the advancing dryline by late this evening
(9 PM to 11 PM time frame). These storms may impact areas along
and east of a Snyder-Big Lake-Bakersfield line through around 1-3
AM before finally exiting east of our area. There may be a
continued severe threat with these storms. In addition to the
severe threat, we are also watching for the potential of heavy
rainfall/flash flooding over the eastern Permian Basin late this
afternoon through late this evening as storms will have the
potential to produce a quick one half to one inch of rain in a
short period of time, especially with the developing line later
this evening. While the threat of heavier rainfall may remain to
the east of our forecast area, we will be watching our eastern
counties for a heavy rain/flood threat until shortly after
midnight. Dry conditions and mild temperatures are expected behind
the departing system Monday and Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 154 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A calm and pleasant day is in store on Tuesday. The upper low that
will bring storms on Sunday and windy conditions on Monday, moves
northeast of the region. Westerly flow aloft keeps temperatures
above normal (highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s) Tuesday afternoon.
Guidance has a surface low pressure system moving across the
Northern Plains which is going to send a strong cold front to the
region Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Breezy northeasterly
winds and colder air behind the front drops temperatures near to
slightly below normal on Wednesday where many locations are forecast
to be in the low 50s to low 60s. Warmer weather returns on
Thanksgiving as highs rebound in the low 60s and low 70s regionwide,
thanks to subtle upper-level ridging building in from the west. By
Friday into next weekend, cluster analysis depicts an upper-level
storm system developing near the California Coast to Desert
Southwest region. Solutions are varied with the strength and
positioning of this system which will be something to monitor
over the next couple of days. Rain chances during this period
remains very low (<= 10%).

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Latest observations/satellite imagery shows stratus has developed
across the Permian Basin, resulting in IFR cigs at KMAF. Over the
next few hours, surface flow is forecast to veer to west,
advecting in drier air and scattering cigs/vsbys out to VFR.
Elsewhere, VFR will prevail next 24 hours in westerly flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               49  71  40  71 /  50   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 44  70  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   57  80  47  77 /  40   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            50  73  45  74 /  30   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           41  58  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    40  67  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    36  64  31  68 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     49  71  43  71 /  30   0   0   0
Odessa                   49  70  43  70 /  30   0   0   0
Wink                     44  70  38  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...99