756
FXUS64 KMAF 250810
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
210 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 210 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

- Drier weather and mild temperatures continue early this week.

- A cold front will move into the area Tuesday night and will
  bring near to below average temperatures on Wednesday.

- Pleasant conditions and mild temperatures are expected
  Thanksgiving Day through Saturday before cooler temperatures
  return late this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 210 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Warm, chillier, and then milder as strong troughing over the central
CONUS assists in rapid development of a strong cold front followed
by mid to upper ridging building back by Thanksgiving Day. A mostly
clear early morning view is apparent on VIS/IR satellite imagery,
indicating surface high pressure and mid to upper ridging remains in
control. Another day of westerly downsloping winds and mostly sunny
skies yields temperatures similar to yesterday but a few degrees
warmer, with upper 60s to lower 70s F, upper 50s to lower 60s F
higher elevations, and mid 70s to lower 80s F along the Rio Grande
into Terrell County. However, winds shift to northwesterly and then
northeasterly later this afternoon through this evening as a strong
cold front moves through. As a result of the cold front passage,
occasional gusty winds are forecast during this time period, mainly
for the SE NM plains into the Upper Trans Pecos. With advection of
colder and drier air and dew point temperatures in the 20s F
building southwest of the Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau as
well as over northern Lea County and northern Permian Basin tonight,
overnight cooling will be enhanced. This will lead to lows falling
near to below freezing for Davis Mountains and surrounding foothills
as well as Guadalupes and northern Lea County into northwest Permian
Basin. However, continued gusty northeast winds are likely to reduce
efficiency of cool air drainage.

CAA continues tomorrow for the day before Thanksgiving, providing
one more chilly period before ridging in the mid to upper air
pattern leads to resumed moderating temperatures. There is a high
probability in ensembles (70% to 90%) and forecast grids that highs
struggle to climb above 60 F for much of Lea County and the Permian
Basin, and above 65 F for locations north of the Rio Grande basins.
For the Rio Grande basins and along the Rio Grande, highs only in
the mid 60s to lower 70s F are forecast in forecast grids, but
ensemble probabilities indicate a moderate (40% to 50%) chance of
highs remaining in the lower to mid 60s F even that far south.
Higher elevations of the Guadalupes and Delawares have a moderate to
high probability (45% to 65%) of not rising above 50F. Dew point
temperatures remain in the 30s F tomorrow night despite rising a few
degrees as light southerly winds resume under renewed ridging. Highs
similar to tonight but a few degrees cooler and falling farther into
the mid 30s F as far south as the Upper Trans Pecos and southeast
Permian Basin are forecast. These low but not extremely low dew
point temperatures will continue to maintain a 20F to 25F diurnal
range as temperatures moderate through the Thanksgiving Holiday.
Still, models are converging on troughing over the western and
central CONUS later in the week reinforcing another push of colder
air. For more details, see the long term discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The upper low that initially brought Tuesday night`s strong cold
front tracks from the Great Lakes toward the northeast into Canada
Thursday. Flow aloft remains out of the northwest over our region
through Thanksgiving evening, as a ridge builds in from the west.
At the surface, the high behind the cold front translates from
north Texas eastward Thursday afternoon, bringing the return of
southerly and southeasterly winds. Temperatures Thanksgiving
morning start off in the 30s to mid 40s, then warm into the mid
60s to low 70s (mid 70s near the Rio Grande).

Upper-ridging begins to flatten out Friday, eventually merging with
a long-wave trough that looks to span across most of the CONUS over
the weekend. As a result, flow aloft becomes zonal Friday and
temperatures both Friday and Saturday top out in the 60s and 70s. A
short-wave disturbance introduces the chance for some isolated
shower/storm development Friday afternoon over the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos. Of course, this depends on whether the
disturbance can coincide with sufficient moisture. Saturday, models
indicate another storm system taking shape near the west coast,
eventually developing into an upper low that digs into the Desert
Southwest early next week. The developing system steers upper flow
out of the southwest as early as Saturday evening. Surface lee
troughing brings a cold front down into our CWA late Saturday
afternoon into Sunday morning, dropping highs back into the 60s for
most Sunday afternoon. Moisture ahead of the aforementioned system
may combine with lift to bring about some rain chances across the
region Sunday night into Monday. Again, this depends on the system`s
setup and characteristics, which have been quite uncertain within
model data lately. In any case, temperatures heading into
December look to trend much cooler than what we`ve seen recently.
Keep posted for additional information in the coming days!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR continues with light west winds. Cold front arrives late in
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  39  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 71  38  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   78  47  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            74  42  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           61  37  55  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    69  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    68  33  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     72  40  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   71  41  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     72  40  59  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...29