183
FXUS64 KMAF 201751
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1151 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Widespread showers and storms today bringing locally heavy
  rainfall and isolated areas of flash flooding.

- Strong winds over Guadalupe Mountains today and tonight.

- Another storm system brings high rain chances back to the region
  Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

An active 12-18 hours continues today as an upper level storm system
lifts over the region. Area radar shows rain to our west and another
band to our east over the Concho Valley. Hi-res models continue to
indicate additional showers and thunderstorms will develop across SE
NM as well as the eastern Permian Basin toward sunrise. The threat
for any severe storms will be low, but we can`t rule out some small
hail and gusty winds with any storm. PWATs remain high so heavy rain
and isolated areas of flash flooding will be the main threat. Fast
moving storms should help mitigate this concern, but if any training
were to occur low water crossings and poor drainage areas could
quickly become overwhelmed. Additional storms are expected through
the afternoon ahead of an eastward moving Pacific front that should
clear our region by sunset. Temperatures remain similar to yesterday
with highs mostly in the 70s except for the higher terrain (50s)
where the front will pass first. Gusty west winds will develop
behind the front especially across the Guadalupe Mountains where
gusts near 60 mph look likely. For this reason have issued a High
Wind Warning for this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures finally cool back toward normal overnight with lows in
the 30s and 40s. High pressure settling overhead Friday will make
for a beautiful day with light winds, plenty of sun, and highs in
the 60s/70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1251 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Our active pattern continues with another storm system set to affect
the region this weekend. Attention turns west as another upper
trough dives south over Baja Saturday. Southwesterly flow will
quickly increase overhead helping to spread high clouds back over
the region Saturday afternoon. This will keep high temperatures in
check and mostly in the 60s. Gulf of America moisture gets drawn
back west early next week as the upper trough approaches. Increased
lift will lead to more showers and thunderstorms developing during
the day Sunday. The threat for severe storms and flash flooding
appear low at this time as this system looks to move through rather
quickly. This could change so continue to monitor the forecast for
updates. Yet another Pacific front will follow behind the upper
trough keeping temperatures above normal, but not as significant as
what we saw last week. Highs in the 60s/70s with lows in the 30s/40s
are expected into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Light to moderate showers are currently ongoing near FST and CNM
terminals. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to expand
in coverage early this afternoon lasting through the early evening
hours. Therefore, -TSRA PROB30s and TEMPOs were implemented at
most sites where brief periods of MVFR VIS is anticipated. Gusty
southwesterly winds will shift westerly early in the afternoon.
Occasional gusts up to 30-35 kts is in store, before winds
significantly decrease early this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  44  71  41 /  50  20   0   0
Carlsbad                 69  42  69  38 /  60   0   0   0
Dryden                   79  50  78  51 /  70  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            79  46  73  45 /  30  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           58  39  57  42 /  70   0   0   0
Hobbs                    68  39  67  37 /  50   0   0   0
Marfa                    68  33  67  37 /  30   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     73  45  69  43 /  60  10   0   0
Odessa                   72  44  68  43 /  60  10   0   0
Wink                     72  41  69  39 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...11