854
FXUS64 KMAF 040800
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

- Very warm temperatures and dry weather conditions can be
  expected through the week.

- A dry cold front may bring cooler temperatures by late next
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Upper-level ridging will extend from southern portions of Texas to
the Gulf Coast states today while surface lee troughing takes
shape over eastern New Mexico and parts of west Texas. A deep
layer dry airmass will remain in place over our region today
allowing for continued sunny skies and dry weather conditions.
Temperatures will trend just a little warmer today with highs
forecast to reach into the 80s over most of the area, except for a
few readings in the mid to upper 70s in the higher terrain and
along portions of the southern Basin/Lower Trans Pecos. Lows
tonight will continue to range in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

The upper-level ridge over south Texas will break down and
retrograde westward on Wednesday as westerly to northwesterly flow
aloft develops Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. There may
be a slight increase in high level cloudiness with this pattern
but dry weather will otherwise continue. A weak cold front may
push into east central New Mexico and the South Plains region to
our north by Wednesday afternoon. Low level thermal ridging still
looks to enhance along surface troughing over our forecast area
ahead of this boundary on Wednesday, so temperatures will continue
to trend warmer. Highs on Wednesday afternoon are forecast to
reach into the mid to upper 80s over much of our CWA, with a few
locations along the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande reach near or just
above 90 degrees. Highs at Midland will approach record territory
Wednesday, but may fall just shy of the record high of 89 last
set in 2017.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Surface lee troughing will become reorganized across eastern New
Mexico and west Texas again on Thursday, so another very warm and
dry day can be expected with highs once again averaging well above
normal in the mid to upper 80s over much of the region (with a few
readings in the lower 90s along portions of the Trans Pecos and
Rio Grande). A shortwave trough passing across the central Plains
still looks to send a weak cold front into our forecast area by
Friday, knocking high temperature readings back down into the 70s
to lower 80s over much of the region. Temperatures trend back up
into the 80s again for most locations by Saturday. The upper air
pattern will amplify across the CONUS Saturday into Saturday night
and a stronger shortwave trough digging from the northern Rockies
into the central Plains will send a stronger cold front southward
into our forecast area by Saturday night. Highs on Sunday finally
look to trend much cooler with highs in the 60s over much of the
area except for 70s over the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend
region. Surface high pressure may build from the central Plains
into the Red River Valley/ArkLaTex region by Monday, which would
allow for a return southerly flow over our forecast area. Highs
still look to be relatively cool in the upper 60s to lower 70s by
next Monday. Lows each morning should range in the 40s and 50s
over most locations through the end of the week and into the
weekend, but may trend colder in the 30s and 40s by next Monday
morning. No precipitation is in sight through the extended
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions and light southeast winds continue this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               82  51  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 87  49  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   80  50  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            87  56  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           76  55  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    84  50  85  45 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    81  44  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     82  52  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   81  52  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     84  47  87  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...10