288
FXUS64 KMAF 011926
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
126 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Warming trend through midweek before another front knocks
  Thursday`s temperatures down well below normal again.

- Low (10-30%) precipitation chances Thursday. Cannot rule out
  snow flurries and a few light snow showers across portions of
  southeast New Mexico and Guadalupe Mountains Thursday morning.
  Little to no accumulation along with no travel impacts are
  expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 117 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Upper-level flow becomes zonal to northwesterly tonight as a trough
departs to our northeast. An area of surface high pressure develops
north of our region tonight, resulting in light winds and clear
skies. This allows for better radiational cooling that brings
tonight`s lows plummeting into the 20s over much of the Permian
Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the Upper Trans Pecos. Areas
elsewhere should expect to dip into the 30s.

Tuesday, an upper-level trough swings from the Pacific Northwest
toward the Desert Southwest. A lee trough helps develop a surface
low near the Panhandle, steering a breezy, southwesterly wind over
much of our region Tuesday afternoon. Conditions will be a touch
windy over the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains late Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening, but currently look to remain below
High Wind criteria, if not reaching criteria briefly. Temperatures
are forecast to top out in the 60s, with the exception of low 70s in
portions of the Trans Pecos. The surface low`s associated cold front
begins to drop down into the Panhandle Tuesday night, knocking on
our doorstep by Wednesday morning. Temperatures Tuesday night dip
into the 30s and 40s ahead of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 117 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A cold front is set to arrive in the region sometime on Wednesday.
Guidance has been trending at a later arrival favoring warmer high
temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s for most locations. If the
cold front comes in earlier before peak daytime heating,
temperatures are going to be much cooler than forecasted especially
for areas across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Given
latest trends, confidence is increasing for a warmer Wednesday.
Colder air and brisk winds (15-20 kt sustained) settles in behind
the front Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Gap winds during
this timeframe are also anticipated at Guadalupe Pass, though these
winds are not forecast to remain below high wind criteria at this
time. Low temperatures dip in the mid 20s to mid 30s for areas north
of the I-10 corridor, while areas south of the corridor span in the
mid 30s to upper 40s.

Cold weather is in store on Thursday as a surface high pressure
spanning from the Central to Southern Plains ushers more cold air
into the region. Broken to overcast cloud coverage throughout the
day will also mitigate temperatures from warming up. Highs are
forecast to be in the low to mid 40s for areas north of I-10, while
warmer highs in the 50s and 60s are forecast for areas south of the
I-10 corridor. Guidance has subtle mid-level shortwave troughing
Thursday morning into the afternoon, prompting low (10-30%)
precipitation chances across southeast New Mexico, Davis/Guadalupe
Mountains, and Big Bend region. Cannot rule out some scattered snow
flurries and a couple of light snow showers during the morning hours
across portions of southeast New Mexico and Guadalupe Mountains
given the cold temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest the main
precipitation type will be snow, though there could be intermittent
periods of light sleet later in the morning as temperatures rise.
This is all based upon if there will be enough moisture for this to
occur. Little to no accumulation along with no travel impacts are
expected.

Friday into the weekend, westerly flow aloft returns which increases
temperatures back into the 60s and low 70s. Breezy conditions are
expected to occur, especially over the Guadalupe Mountains. High
winds are possible due to guidance showing an upper-level trough
swinging across the region with a jet maximum near the Guadalupes
Friday night into Saturday morning. There is uncertainty with the
high wind potential during this time; stay up to date with the
latest forecast!

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions prevail at most sites. An area of surface high
pressure sets up to our north later today, bringing light winds
with a northerly component and clear skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               27  63  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 27  68  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   38  62  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            34  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           34  59  43  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    24  63  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    27  65  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     28  63  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   27  63  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     28  65  39  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...95