044
FXUS64 KMAF 081125
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
525 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

- High winds over the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains will accompany
  a strong cold front Saturday night through Sunday. These winds
  will pose a threat for travel and unsecured objects.

- The strong cold front will bring below normal temperatures to
  the region Sunday and Monday. Near freezing temperatures are
  forecast for western, northern, and eastern portions of the area
  Sunday night/Monday morning.

- Warming trend beginning after winds again become less northerly/easterly
  by Monday and ridging builds aloft by midweek. Dry throughout
  the weekend into most of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 101 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Current satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into
the northern and central Plains region. This will send a strong
cold front to the northern half of the forecast area this
afternoon. High resolution guidance is in agreement with the front
entering portions of the northern Permian Basin early this
afternoon. Enhanced low- level thermal ridging will also be
evident ahead of the front over portions of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico. As a result, high temperatures are forecast
to be warmer than Friday spanning in the upper 70s to upper 80s
for many locations. Locations in the northern Permian Basin have
the potential in reaching the mid 70s due to the front arriving
quicker than anticipated. Winds are going to be breezy to strong
out of the northeast upon and just after frontal passage. As the
front progresses further southward tonight, strong northeasterly
gap winds are expected to persist over the Guadalupe Mountains
lasting through early Sunday afternoon. Sustained winds up to 45
mph with occasional gusts up to 60 mph are forecast to occur.
Travel will be difficult especially for high profile vehicles such
as campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Be sure to also secure
any loose objects for these winds!

Much cooler temperatures are in store for Sunday as the cold air
behind the front enters the region. High temperatures are forecast
to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s with breezy winds for most
locations. Strong surface high pressure builds in behind the
front, pushing more cold air advection to the region. This will
set up a cold Monday morning for early November. See the long-term
discussion for details!

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 101 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

The story for the end of this weekend into most of next week is
remaining dry with dew point temperatures staying below 45 F
areawide and largely in the 20s and 30s F. However, a warming
trend continues to be apparent as troughing in the upper air
pattern from Eastern Canada into Central Great Plains and
Southeast US eases and ridging in the upper air pattern expands
east from the Desert SW by midweek. The end of the weekend ends on
a cold note behind the strong cold front that clears the area by
Sunday. NBM has trended colder by a few degrees for lows Sunday
night/Monday morning, allowing near to below freezing temperatures
to be reached for a larger portion of southern Culberson County,
the northern and eastern Permian Basin, as well as northern Eddy
County and a small portion of southern Lea County. A Freeze Watch
has been issued for this time period for these regions, and more
counties may be added later on depending on temperature trends.
For locations that have experienced freezing temperatures
previously this autumn such as Lower Marfa Plateau, southern
Culberson County, northern and central Lea County into northwest
Permian Basin, lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s F can be
expected. A small portion of Brewster County and southwest Pecos
County where Lower Trans Pecos are located will also experience
near to below freezing temperatures. However, this region
encompassing Lower Trans Pecos is not large enough in area to
warrant inclusion of Brewster and Pecos Counties in the Freeze
Watch at this time. Elsewhere, lows in mid 30s to upper 30s F
north of Rio Grande basins, and upper 30s to lower 40s F along Rio
Grande are anticipated. The troughing in the upper air pattern
will not be quick to let up on Monday, and it will take some time
for surface high pressure to develop east of the area. As a
result, southerly winds advecting in warmer air from northern MX
are only expected to begin later in the day Monday. While highs
have trended up a few degrees for Monday, highs Monday are still
only a few degrees warmer than Sunday, characterized by lower to
mid 60s F, upper 50s F higher elevations, and upper 60s F to lower
70s F Stockton Plateau and along Rio Grande.

Following less northeasterly/easterly winds, lows only fall into
mid 30s F to lower 40s F range Monday night, with highs Tuesday
onward recovering back into the 70s and 80s F, 60s F higher
elevations. Breezy west/southwest downsloping winds are
anticipated Tuesday as high pressure redevelops farther to the
east and pressures fall as lee troughing struggles to re-
establish. Tuesday night, lows fall into mid 40s F to lower 50s F
range, lower 40s F in usual cooler spots of Davis Mountains,
basins of Culberson County, and northern Lea County. Wednesday,
lee troughing from CO Front Range into SE NM redevelops, with
winds briefly shifting to northerly Wednesday and lows again
falling into the mid 40s F to lower 50s F range Wednesday night.
By Thursday, westerly downsloping winds and lee troughing become
established ahead of a storm system over the Pacific SW. The
increased westerly downsloping flow throughout the lower to mid
levels of the atmosphere and continued ridging result in highs
solidly in the 70s and 80s F even for higher elevations.
Similarly, lows Thursday night largely settle into the mid to
upper 40s F higher elevations to lower to mid 50s F range
elsewhere. Similar highs again show up for the end of the week,
but by Friday night, very low but nonetheless nonzero rain chances
appear. These low but not zero rain chances reappear as lift and
moisture with an approaching storm system get closer to the area,
with even warmer overnight lows largely in the upper 40s to mid
50s F range and lower 40s F range. Rain chances stay low but not
zero to start next weekend as most of the lift and moisture
bypasses the area to the north and east, so unfortunately no
reduction in drought conditions is expected any time soon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light
southwesterly winds shift northwesterly later this morning.
Stronger winds are expected early this afternoon as a cold front
passes through the region. Occasional gusts up to 30 kts with
sustained winds up to 20 kts may occur, especially at HOB, INK,
and MAF terminals this afternoon and early evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               80  43  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 82  41  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   91  51  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            84  45  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           73  41  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    78  38  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    79  38  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     82  45  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   82  45  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     83  43  62  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to 6 PM
     CST /5 PM MST/ Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     Andrews-Borden-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Reagan-
     Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Sunday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     Eddy County Plains-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11