013
FXUS64 KMAF 021958
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
158 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 141 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Warming trend continues Wednesday before another front knocks Thursday`s
  temperatures down well below normal again.

- Low (10-30%) precipitation chances Wednesday night into early Thursday.
  Snow flurries possible across southeast New Mexico and
  Guadalupe Mountains Thursday morning. Little to no accumulation
  along with no travel impacts are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 141 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

An uneventful start to the short term for today. VIS IR/Satellite
imagery depicts mostly clear skies after another chilly morning.
Amidst breezy south/southwest winds today and mostly clear skies,
highs today rise 5F to 10F warmer northeast of Davis Mountains into
Lower Trans Pecos, and to similar values seen yesterday south of
that region from most of Culberson County into the Marfa Plateau,
Rio Grande basins, and Terrell County. This translates to lower to
mid 60s F Lea County into Permian Basin, eastern Stockton Plateau
and Terrell County as well as foothills of Guadalupes and Marfa
Plateau, mid to upper 60s F Eddy County Plains into Culberson County
and central Presidio and Brewster Counties, mid to upper 50s F
higher elevations of Guadalupes and Davis Mountains, and lower to
mid 70s F Reeves County Plains, Stockton Plateau, and Presidio
Valley into Big Bend. Tonight, sustained south/southwest winds and
increased high cloud cover limiting diurnal heating and drawing dew
point temperatures/boundary layer moisture from the 20s F back into
the 30s F limits overnight cooling. As a result, lows 10F to 15F
warmer north of Rio Grande basins and Terrell County are forecast.
This means that compared to this morning, lows by Wednesday morning
fail to fall below freezing everywhere except for northern SE NM
plains, northern Permian Basin, and foothills of Davis Mountains,
with mid 30s to mid 50s F elsewhere.

A continued warming trend is soon interrupted as troughing in the
upper air pattern from eastern Canada into the Southern Great Plains
continues to allow periodic surges of cold air. Highs Wednesday
feature temperatures rising into the mid to upper 70s F from the Rio
Grande basins into Stockton Plateau, Upper Trans Pecos, and southern
Permian Basin, again around 5F to 10F warmer. However, a weak cold
front progressing south knocks highs back into the 50s and 60s F
range behind the front, with lower to mid 60s F ahead of the front.
Timing of front remains uncertain, but behind the front, CAA
balanced with falling dew point temperatures into the 20s F north of
Rio Grande basins once again allows lows by Thursday morning to fall
near to below freezing for that region, with below freezing
temperatures most likely over peaks of Davis Mountains and
Guadalupes, northern Lea County into northwest Permian Basin. Low
(10% to 30%) precipitation chances also develop over Lea County
through the overnight hours, which combined with below freezing
temperatures may result in a few flurries. However, forecast
soundings show dry air at mid and upper levels, limiting vertical
extent and growth of any precipitation, and ensembles and even
higher percentile ensembles are not showing any accumulation, so
we are not expecting anything apart from a trace to dusting on
grassy surfaces where "heavier" snow showers occur. The push of
cold air behind the front lingers before another warmup. More on
that in the long term discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The long term period begins an upper-level shortwave transversing
over the Rockies and into the Texas Panhandle. As mentioned in the
short term discussion, the colder air ushered in by Wednesday
night`s front brings cloudy skies, a couple of light snow
showers, and possibly a wintry mix over northern Lea County
Wednesday night into early Thursday. Hi-res models show snow
showers coming to an end around mid-moring Thursday. As of now,
there`s a low (20-30%) chance of some light snow accumulations on
grassy surfaces. As such, confidence is high that road impacts
will be minimal to none. This system also brings a low (10-30%)
chance of rain over the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region
Thursday. In general, clouds will help keep chilly conditions,
with highs topping out in the 40s for most of the region.
Temperatures in our southernmost counties will reach into the 50s
and 60s (along the Rio Grande).

The shortwave departs eastward Thursday night and upper-level flow
remains westerly/southwesterly as another, larger trough lingers
near Baja. Westerly surface winds allow temperatures to rebound
mainly into the 60s Friday, then 60s and 70s (south of the Pecos
River) Saturday. Lows Friday and Saturday nights are forecast to
settle into the 30s and 40s. Sunday is on tap to be one of our
warmest days within the forecast ahead of a weak cold front arriving
Sunday night. Highs Sunday afternoon will again reach into the 60s
and 70s, with 70s expanding in coverage compared to Saturday.
Temperatures primarily warm into the 60s Monday and Tuesday
afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions forecast throughout TAF period. Breezy
south/southwest winds for terminals over SE NM plains into Permian
Basin develop from beginning of TAF period and continuing into
02Z- 07Z. Winds shift to west/northwest 12Z-16Z Wednesday as a
cold front passage occurs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               40  68  32  44 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                 41  68  34  48 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                   39  70  43  53 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton            48  75  37  48 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           44  59  33  44 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                    38  64  28  47 /   0   0  20  10
Marfa                    34  68  31  54 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     41  70  33  45 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   41  69  34  45 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     40  70  35  47 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...94