868
ACUS11 KWNS 082011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082011
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-082215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2200
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeast Georgia...northern and
central South Carolina into far southern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 082011Z - 082215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible along a
broad frontal zone from northern GA into the Carolinas this
afternoon/evening. Increasingly strong vertical shear could support
a few supercells with damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two. A
WW is possible though very uncertain.

DISCUSSION...As of 2005 UTC, afternoon satellite and radar imagery
showed a few showers and initial thunderstorms slowly developing
near the broad frontal zone across northern GA and far western SC.
South of the front, a moist and fairly warm air mass was supporting
moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear profiles favorable for some
storm organization. While so far, development has been slow, owing
to modest mid-level lapse rates and forcing, continued low-level
convergence ahead of a weak frontal wave should allow for gradual
storm intensification of this convection over the next few hours.

With cold temperatures aloft and sufficient CAPE/shear for organized
storms, a few clusters and perhaps supercells are possible. Hail and
some damaging gusts would be the most likely threats, especially
with any stronger rotating storms. Any tornado risk is likely to be
maximized along an advancing warm front where weak pressure falls
and backed low-level flow are helping to enhance low-level
hodographs.

Farther east, low-level warm air advection near the warm front was
supporting additional isolated storms over eastern SC. While overall
forcing for ascent is rather nebulous, buoyant and uncapped profiles
may continue to support isolated storm development this afternoon
and evening. Backed low-level flow near the front could allow for
some storm organization, though confidence in sustained stronger
storms is low.

Confidence in the overall convective evolution is low. A conditional
risk for more intense supercells is apparent given the background
kinematic fields overlapped with fairly robust moisture/buoyancy for
November. However, the lack of stronger forcing and slow evolution
casts some uncertainty on peak intensity. Observational trends will
be watched closely this afternoon to evaluate the need for a small
WW should more intense supercells evolve.

..Lyons/Smith.. 11/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   34758378 35108252 35138104 34977972 34627901 33727903
            33307942 33238027 33498097 33588385 33708472 33878456
            34208438 34758378

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN