399
ACUS11 KWNS 020311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020310
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-020915-

Mesoscale Discussion 2243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Areas affected...western/northern Kentucky and adjacent portions of
the Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 020310Z - 020915Z

SUMMARY...A narrow developing corridor of heavy snow rates around or
in excess of 1 inch per hour appears possible, spreading across
western through northern Kentucky between Midnight-4 AM EST (11 PM-3
AM CST).

DISCUSSION...Multiple speed maxima are embedded within a broad belt
of strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow now overspreading the
southern Great Plains through Atlantic Seaboard.  Around 500 mb, the
strongest of these is nosing east-northeast of the Ozark Plateau
through the lower Ohio Valley, accompanied by a focused area of
increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow which is forecast to
overspread much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley
late this evening into the overnight hours.

It appears that large-scale forcing for ascent will be aided by
lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which Rapid Refresh forecast
soundings indicate will contribute to a period of strong lift
maximizing in mid-levels, within a corridor near the Ohio River.
This is forecast to include a layer near/below 500 mb, where
saturating profiles with temperatures around -15 C will be most
conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth.

Although lower-level temperatures across portions of western through
northern Kentucky are fluctuating a bit, from just above to below
freezing, cold advection to the northwest of a developing frontal
wave is expected to support snow or a transition to snow as heavier
precipitation commences.  As precipitable water content increases to
0.6 to 0.7 + inches along the frontal zone, guidance suggests at
least a couple hour period of heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2
inches per hour is possible, developing near or to the west/north of
Hopkinsville and Bowling Green before spreading toward areas
around/north/northeast of Lexington between 05-09Z.

..Kerr.. 12/02/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   39068358 38618257 37878387 37028611 36468814 36448918
            37308815 38238585 39068358