Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
401 FXUS64 KMEG 061718 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Rain has returned today and will last through Tuesday night. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding along and north of I-40 through tomorrow morning. - A cold front will pass Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures into next weekend. Highs are expected to be in the mid 70s to the low 80s. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Rain has returned to the Mid-South today as a weak tropical low traverses the region. Moisture advection last night associated with this system has allowed for PWATs to climb to around 2", which is above the 97th percentile for this time of year. Within this theta e advection regime, widespread shower development has occurred with multiple bands of heavier rainfall across the Mid- South and down to the Gulf Coast. Upper air profiles will support heavier bands of convection, especially into this afternoon as MUCAPE increases. Rain rates of up to 2-3" per hour are possible within these bands which could cause some localized flooding concerns through this afternoon and into tonight as these rates are on the cusp of RFC 1-hour flash flood guidance. The severe threat will be quite limited thanks to weak effective shear values and low DCAPE. Rain will continue tonight, primarily along and north of I-40, as this moist air mass remains throughout the region with ample southerly theta e advection. Convective showers/bands should decrease in coverage as MUCAPE falls overnight, but localized heavy rain may still cause some minor flooding. By Tuesday morning, a front will have developed and started moving east throughout the region, bringing more shower development along with it. 12z HREF guidance paints a large swath of QPF that follows the front through Western Tennessee throughout Tuesday afternoon with a diurnal uptick in convection. The front will continue through the region overnight into Wednesday with scattered showers with rain chances ceasing by 00z Thursday. When all is said and done, areas along and north of I-40 will see anywhere from 2"-4" of rain with locally higher amounts. Areas south will still receive up to 1"-2". The rest of the forecast will see the upper pattern push the ridge to our east back west into the Southwestern CONUS. This will allow the jet stream to take a northwesterly orientation over the Mid- South, keeping the cooler air behind the cold front across the region. Therefore, starting Thursday, the forecast dries out with highs in the mid to upper 70s across the majority of the area. Additionally, drier air will allow for overnight lows to cool into the mid to low 50s, with our northern tier of counties potentially dropping into the 40s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 A tropical low moving across the Midsouth will result in MVFR or lower cigs through the 24/30 hour TAF cycle. Removed the mention of thunder at all sites, but confidence is not high that we will not see any lightning in the area. East to southeast winds 4-8kts will prevail. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Fire weather concerns will be low through the period as wetting rains soak fuels and keep minimum relative humidity values above 50% through Wednesday. A cold front will sweep through Wednesday afternoon, drying the region through at least this weekend. Rainfall totals will be 2 to 4 inches along and north of I-40 and up to 1 to 2 inches for locations to the south. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...JDS