240
FXUS64 KMEG 281832
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1232 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1213 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Below-normal temperatures will persist over the next seven days.

- Rain will return to the Mid-South Saturday through Sunday
  morning. We could see a few snowflakes, mainly north of I-40,
  Saturday morning though impacts are not expected.

- Significant uncertainty exists regarding a low-pressure system
  next Monday and into Tuesday morning that could bring heavy rain
  or a mixed precipitation regime to the region. Stay tuned for
  updated forecasts in the coming days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1213 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

We had a pretty chilly start to our Friday as below freezing
temperatures occurred across much of the Mid-South leading to
widespread frost across much of the area. We`re still pretty chilly
at this hour with current temperatures in the lower 40s to lower
50s under clear skies and light and variable winds at the surface.
As surface high pressure slides to the east and quasi- zonal flow
aloft prevail over the next 12 hours or so, we will see chilly,
benign weather.

A pattern shift will occur tomorrow morning as a deepening
surface low begins to emerge from the Central Plains. Ahead of
this deepening low, a shortwave will materialize over the Middle
Mississippi Valley tomorrow morning with decent swath of warm air
advection brought in with it. Ample moisture transport aided by
the aforementioned lifting mechanisms will bring precipitation,
northwest to southeast, tomorrow morning. A small window will open
up for a rain and snow mix, mainly along the Tennessee Kentucky
border, early tomorrow morning where temperatures will be below
freezing. However, there are a few caveats with a wintry mix.
Precipitation may not begin early enough when temperatures are
below freezing, leading to no wintry precipitation and just rain.
Either way, impacts are not expected tomorrow morning. The main
story through the rest of tomorrow will be widespread showers as
forecast PWATs begin to increase to around 1.2", nearing the 80th
percentile for this time of the year.

An attendant cold front will begin moving across the Mid-South
Sunday morning, pushing precipitation southeast of our area by
afternoon. There is pretty good model agreement that this cold
front will stall just south of the I-40 corridor. As such, we will
see a pretty decent temperature contrast, highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s north of this boundary and in the mid 40s to lower 50s
south of this boundary Sunday. This stalled front will largely
impact precipitation type come Monday. A Gulf low will materialize
and begin pushing into the Lower Mississippi Valley Monday
morning. One thing we know, moisture will be present as the upper-
level pattern transitions from zonal to northwest flow and this
surface low begins to bring precipitation chances back to the Mid-
South. Another swath of warm air advection will also act as a
lifting mechanism for precipitation Monday afternoon into evening.
Depending on how quickly this Gulf low begins to influence the
weather here in to Mid-South Monday morning, precipitation could
interact with at or below freezing temperatures in northeast
central Arkansas leading to a light freezing rain and rain mix. As
warm air advection infiltrates in, by late Monday morning, any
precipitation over areas really south of I-40 will quickly
transition to all showers.

North of I-40, however, is a different story. As the gulf low
continues to push east/northeast across the Mississippi Valley,
precipitation chances will increase across all of the Mid-South.
Areas mainly along the Tennessee and Kentucky border will likely
have below freezing temperatures interacting with precipitation.
As such, we will likely see some sort of a wintry mix. Now as far
as what precipitation type will be mixed with rainfall is
debatably the biggest question. Depending on what ensemble
solution you look at, this could be predominantly snow, freezing
rain, or even sleet mix. Air temperatures aloft will likely be
above freezing given high temperatures Monday afternoon likely
reaching above freezing limits, in the mid 30s to lower 40s. As
such the predominant precipitation type will likely not be snow.
Bottom line, we will more than likely see a wintry mix mainly
north of I-40 Monday afternoon and extending through Tuesday
morning.

Precipitation chances will begin to diminish Tuesday afternoon as
a negatively tilted trough pushes into the Upper Mississippi
Valley from the southern Rockies region. High pressure will
quickly build in behind this trough, increasing Wednesday`s
temperatures back into the 40s, comparative to the 30s for
Tuesday`s highs. The weather does look a bit unsettled in the
latter part of next work-week as cluster analysis is hinting
another Gulf low bringing shower chances back to the Mid-South
Thursday into Friday. However we are still a ways out to pinpoint
exact impacts from this next system.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Light and variable winds are anticipated through the remainder of
Friday, but aviation impacts return on Saturday as an upper level
trough impacts the Mid-South.

As this feature moves into the airspace, FL020 winds will
increase to around 45 kts by mid-morning. This will necessitate a
LLWS mention at MEM and JBR through the end of the period. Mid
level cloud coverage will increase as well, but ceilings will
remain VFR. Rain showers are anticipated after sunrise at JBR,
increasing in coverage throughout Saturday.

ANS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1213 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

No significant fire weather concerns will exist through the
forecast period. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to
remain above 30 percent across the area with light winds. Wetting
rain chances will increase Saturday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...ANS