437
FXUS64 KMEG 220521
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1121 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Rain chances will decrease on Saturday, leaving the remainder of
  the weekend dry with highs in the 60s and 70s.

- Showers and thunderstorms return Monday and Tuesday.

- Much cooler temperatures round out the end of next week with
  highs on Thanksgiving in the 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

As of 10PM, a line of showers and thunderstorms continues to push
across the TN/KY border. The latest mesoanalysis places about
500 J/kg of MLCAPE in this region, along with 60 kts of bulk
shear. However, these storms are struggling to gain strength due
to lackluster lapse rates and increasing CIN. The eastern half of
the forecast area remains in a Marginal risk for severe storms.
If a storm or two can tap into areas of increased lift, a few
damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. However, the likelihood
of this occurring is on the decline. Rain chances will slowly
taper off overnight, leaving the region dry by midmorning. A slow
moving cold front will bring slightly cooler afternoon
temperatures with highs in the 60s and 70s. Cool and dry
conditions will persist on Sunday with highs in the 60s.

A fairly active synoptic pattern emerges on Monday as a large
upper level low ejects out of the Desert Southwest. A leading
shortwave will increase dewpoints locally and provide enough lift
to initiate showers and thunderstorms by midday. The overall
severe weather parameter space will be hampered by low 50s
dewpoints and lack luster lapse rates. Showers and thunderstorms
will persist into the overnight hours. At this time, dewpoints
will surge to the low 60s. Guidance continues to paint a narrow
corridor of about 300 J/kg of MLCAPE overlapping with 40 kts of
bulk shear by midday Tuesday. If storms are able to overcome weak
forcing, this could be just enough to support a few damaging wind
gusts. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly dissipate Tuesday
evening.

The Thanksgiving holiday will be much cooler as an upper level
trough ejects from the Intermountain West. This system will bring
a Continental Polar air mass to the Mid-South on Wednesday. As a
result, temperatures will be much cooler as highs struggle to
reach 50 degrees. For Thanksgiving Day, the LREF places a 50-70%
probability of high temperatures below 50 degrees for areas north
of the MS/TN border. Nighttime radiational cooling will allow
temperatures to fall below freezing across most of the area
Thursday and Friday. The end of next week will remain cool and
dry.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A few showers are possible near TUP this evening but otherwise
rain free conditions will prevail. Wind around 5 kts should be
enough to preclude fog development. MVFR/VFR conditions expected
tonight and much of tomorrow as a surface low and weak trough
shifts to the east. VFR cigs should return to all sites tomorrow
night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1047 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain minimal this period as MinRH
values remain above 50 percent. Wetting rain chances return
Monday and will persist into Tuesday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS