917
FXUS64 KMEG 070001
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
601 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Patchy dense fog is likely (over 80% chance) again tonight
across the  Midsouth. Visibility less than  mile is expected.

- Temperatures will moderate through the weekend, warming to near
normal highs in the 50s on Sunday.

- A cold front will pass through the Midsouth late Sunday,
returning temperatures to below normal Monday. By Wednesday,
we`ll be back to the 50s for high temperatures, ahead of a cold
front late Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Another round of fog and low clouds/stratus is expected
overnight.  As a result, NBM guidance is likely a bit too warm.
High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 40s to middle
50s tomorrow.  Fog will likely linger through midday due to light
winds/limited atmospheric mixing.

Zonal to weak northwest flow will persist across the middle and
lower Mississippi River Valley through the weekend.  A ridge will
build across the western US early next week  resulting in a
stronger northwest flow pattern over the Midsouth.  A shortwave
will approach the Mississippi River Sunday evening resulting in
our highest chance of rain(still less than 30%) over the next
seven days.  Temperatures Sunday night will dip into the low to
middle 30s across northeast Arkansas, northwest Tennessee and the
Missouri Bootheel. There will be a brief period before sunrise
early Monday when temperatures will be cool enough for a  few
snowflakes, in northwest Tennessee, but the latest model trends
indicate that moisture will become limited as the near or sub-
freezing air arrives.  As a result, the chance of any impactful
wintry weather is very low(less than 10%).

A cold front associated with the aforementioned shortwave will
move across the region late Sunday.  High temperatures Monday
will struggle to reach 40 degrees along and north of the I-
40 corridor.  Temperatures will rebound quickly.  By Wednesday
thicknesses support high temperatures in the middle 50s to near
60 degrees.  Another weak shortwave will enhance the chance of
rain across west Tennessee and northeast Mississippi Thursday
afternoon, but at this time coverage is expected to remain
low(less than 30%) and rainfall accumulation is expected to be
less than one tenth of an inch.  Most of the Midsouth will remain
dry.  Colder temperatures return Friday.  Low temperatures are
expected to be in the middle 20s to middle 30s and highs will be
in the middle 30s to near 50 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Another challenging forecast as IFR/LIFR impacts from several
sources are possible tonight at all terminals. Currently, IFR
CIGs exist across northeastern AR and to the northeast along the
TN/KY state border, impacting JBR over the past 12 hours. These
CIGs are not anticipated to erode throughout the night, but
gradually expand back south, per NBM/HREF guidance, eventually
reaching MKL again around 04z-05z.

MEM and TUP will remain SKC/FEW250 longer into the night, but a
marine layer is forecast to advect in from the south, eventually
bringing IFR/LIFR CIGs anywhere from 06z-08z at both sites.
Towards 10z-12z, fog concerns begin to rise considerably. HREF
members continue to bring heavily reduced visibility in the form
of 1SM mist or fog to all terminals. Have opted towards the
median solution between the HREF and NBM, which is less
impactful, and the aforementioned HREF. This only brings fog to
JBR/TUP with 1SM at MEM/MKL. However, trends will be monitored
closely throughout the night with changes to this aspect of the
TAF forecast likely.

Visibility and CIG restrictions are expected to remain well past
12z, only beginning to improve around 16z-17z. IFR/MVFR CIGs are
then expected through the rest of the period at all sites. Rain
could occur towards 00z at MEM/TUP, but confidence is too low to
include in this TAF issuance.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Patchy dense fog will affect much of the Midsouth again tonight.
No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH
values remaining above 40%. Other than isolated to scattered
showers on Sunday, dry conditions are expected through midweek.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JAB