Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
558 FXUS64 KMEG 042353 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 653 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 635 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Above normal temperatures will persist through this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s. - Rain chances will return to the region early next week. - The end of next week features a cold front that will bring seasonable temperatures back to the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Outside of some clouds over the center of the region, dry and pleasant weather is expected to continue today as high pressure remains across the eastern CONUS. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s this afternoon with lows in the upper 60s. This configuration of the upper and surface patterns will remain through tomorrow with similar weather to today. Guidance brings a weak trough up from the Gulf Monday the surface high moves east. Forecast upper air profiles display deep moisture and PWATs of 1.8"-2.0", a sharp contrast to our current dry airmass. Although CAPE will be somewhat low due to the moist- adiabatic shape of the atmospheric temperature profile, enough instability will be present Monday afternoon to bring scattered showers and storms to the region. A similar setup will exist on Tuesday, but with more of a focus for precipitation development along a theta e gradient through the center of the region. The current forecast calls for up to 1.25" through Wednesday, centered along a this gradient which currently sits from Forrest City, AR to around Paris, TN. Some areas could see locally higher amounts, especially with 90th+ percentile PWATs and supportive vertical temperature profiles. On Wednesday, the upper ridge to our east will be suppressed, retrograding to the western CONUS by Thursday. This will leave the region in a northwesterly flow regime with several, low- amplitude shortwaves and a cold front passing over the region. Behind the front, guidance keeps dew points in the low to mid 60s through the end of the week where there is support for a low (20%-30%) chance of afternoon showers Wednesday and Thursday. 850 mb moisture will then gradually decrease with time into next weekend, decreasing our precipitation chances. At the same time, high temperatures will decrease from the upper 80s to the upper 70s and low 80s Wednesday through the end of the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Another night of VFR and light winds. Unlike previous nights, SE winds just above the nocturnal inversion will increase to as much as 25KT. This will likely be sufficient to mitigate BR/FG potential at MKL. Increased moisture will accompany the SE flow on Sunday, likely resulting in SCT/BKN cumulus field in the afternoon. At this time, it doesn`t appear likely that an early morning MVFR cloud deck will materialize, but this will bear another look in the forthcoming 00Z guidance. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Fire weather concerns will be low through the period as 20 ft winds remain low and minimum relative humidity vales stay around 40 percent. Wetting rain chances (50%-70%) will increase Monday and Tuesday with lower chances (20%-30%) Wednesday and Thursday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...PWB