821
FXUS64 KMEG 022353
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
553 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 552 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Rain chances return Thursday with a 15% chance of wintry
  precipitation along the TN/KY border Thursday night into
  Friday.

- Below normal temperatures will persist through the weekend with
  temperatures returning to the 40s and 50s early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Light radar returns this afternoon suggest a few flurries are
impacting areas near the MS/TN border. No accumulations are
anticipated with any flakes that do fall. Cold temperatures will
persist overnight with lows falling into the 20s areawide. There
is potential for patchy freezing fog tonight, mainly in areas of
west TN and north MS. A Freezing Fog Advisory may be needed if
visibilities drop below a quarter of a mile.

High pressure will build into the Mid-South on Wednesday,
allowing WAA to dominate with afternoon highs returning to the
40s and 50s. Unfortunately, warmer temperatures will not last
long as a large upper level trough ejects a weak front towards
the Mid-South. Highs on Thursday will vary widely with areas near
the TN/KY border remaining in the 30s. Further south into
Mississippi, highs will reach the upper 40s. Elsewhere in CONUS
on Thursday, a weak shortwave will eject from the Rockies. This
feature will continue to weaken as it approaches the Mid-South,
but will provide enough lift to encourage precipitation
development Thursday and Friday.

At this time, a complex forecast emerges as temperatures fall
below freezing Thursday evening. Forecast soundings depict a
shallow warm nose present over the region at this time. Given the
skinny nature of this warm nose, a few flakes may be able to
overcome any warm air and reach the surface. The more plausible
scenario would be a changeover from rain to freezing rain, with
the SREF placing a 15% chance of this happening for areas near
the TN/KY border. Some guidance does erode the aforementioned
warm nose overnight, which would encourage more snow showers in
the region. A few slick spots on roadways and bridges will emerge
on Friday should any wintry mix fall the night before. Otherwise,
expect minimal impacts.

The upcoming weekend will be defined by a messy synoptic pattern
and increased rain chances on Sunday. The good news is that
temperatures look to return to near normal next week with highs
in the 40s and 50s by Tuesday.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Confidence is high that the thick stratus deck will stick around
the entire overnight period. Ceilings are currently sitting at
MVFR across the airspace and will most likely drop to IFR by 06Z
tonight. Guidance is very slow to improve these low ceilings and
the trends have pushed back to at least 18Z tomorrow for
scattering out. The HRRR is an outlier that wants to keep low
stratus socked in through hour 30, but opted to err on the side
of the majority with scattering out tomorrow afternoon. Winds will
be light and variable through the period.

CAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with
minRH values remaining above 40% and light 20ft winds.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CAD