761
FXUS64 KMEG 221543
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
943 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 940 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

- A dry weekend is expected across the Mid-South with high
  temperatures in the 60s to 70s.

- Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast on
  Monday, lasting into Tuesday.

- Much cooler temperatures round out the end of next week with
  highs on Thanksgiving in the 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 940 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

A gloomy morning continues across the Mid-South after widespread
fog impacted most of the area this morning. Weak surface boundary
remains draped over the area with cloudy conditions continuing to
plague the area likely through the majority of today. Those to
the northwest of the area will experience cooler temperatures
behind this frontal boundary, with high temperatures generally in
the low to mid 60s whereas those to the southeast of the area
will jump into the mid 70s again by the afternoon. Into the
overnight period tonight, dew point depressions will once again
be rather low with light winds. While fog will likely not be as
widespread, do expect at least some patchy to locally dense fog
near to after midnight. Any fog that develops will quickly mix
out following sunrise, with skies slowly clearing through the
day. A weak ridging pattern will slowly drift eastward into
tomorrow, leaving behind another dry day to finish the weekend
with high temperatures in the 60s.

By Monday, an upper-level trough will move off the Rocky
Mountains, ushering in our next chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the area. There is pretty decent agreement
within the ensemble space of the bulk of this precipitation
moving through the Mid-South in the overnight period Monday into
Tuesday. With this timing, instability will likely be lacking
even with a favorable shear profile, leading to some uncertainty
with regards to any strong to severe thunderstorms. LREF joint
probabilities for conditions that would be favorable for severe
weather currently are less than 20% Monday evening, and even
these low probabilities only extend across north MS. These same
probabilities tick upwards to about 40-50% across northeast MS on
Tuesday, so more favorable conditions could arise by that point.
Given the uncertainty, very low confidence in any severe weather
threat at this time, but is something to keep an eye on with the
upper-level setup. Total rainfall amounts will likely be in the
1 to 2 inch range across the Mid-South, so some isolated flooding
in flood-prone / poorly draining areas cannot be ruled out.

Any lingering showers and thunderstorms will quickly exit the
area by Wednesday, leaving behind a dry weather pattern to end
the holiday week. High temperatures will likely fall back into
the 50s by Wednesday, with overnight lows in the 30s by
Thanksgiving morning. For those with any outdoor plans for the
holiday, plan for dry conditions with temperatures just a few
degrees below normal. This pattern will continue into next
weekend, with a high pressure in place across the Mid-South.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Fog and low stratus has developed again at TAF sites resulting in
IFR to VLIFR conditions. Expect a slow improvement of ceilings
and visibilities today. Conditions will gradually improve to
IFR/MVFR later this morning and VFR conditions at all sites
except MKL towards late afternoon and early evening. Latest HREF
and deterministic guidance indicating additional development of low
stratus and perhaps some fog again late tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 940 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future, with
minRH values remaining above 40% through at least the middle of
next week. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area
Monday and into Tuesday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CJC