Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
837 FXUS64 KMEG 301819 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1219 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1219 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Below-normal temperatures will persist over the next seven days.. - A Winter Weather Advisory will go into effect Monday evening for areas north of I-40, with expected minor impacts to roadways and bridges. - Dry conditions resume by midweek before another round of precipitation occurs by the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1219 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 The Mid-South sits under mostly clear skies this afternoon with a lingering cloud deck situated over northern Mississippi. Afternoon highs will vary from north to south today, with areas near Kentucky remaining in the upper 30s. Further south, temperatures will approach 50 degrees. A complex forecast emerges on Monday as a Gulf low tracks over southern Mississippi and Alabama. This system will advect elevated moisture into the Mid-South, with Precipitable Water values approaching the 90th percentile by the afternoon hours. A few models depict moisture arriving earlier, which suggests a brief window of a wintry mix Monday morning. However, probabilities for this are low (<15%). Instead, expect freezing precipitation chances to increase Monday evening as temperatures fall below 32 degrees. One major change from yesterday`s forecast is the presence of a weaker warm nose on the latest forecast soundings. A few flakes may be able to overcome this feature, resulting in greater potential for snow fall. However, the latest thinking is that the predominant winter precipitation mode will be freezing rain. Snow and ice accumulations will be minimal, but slick roadways and bridges are anticipated for areas north of I- 40. A Winter Weather Advisory will go into effect at 6PM Monday for this region. Below normal temperatures will persist through the end of the work week. On Thursday, a long wave trough will eject out of the Rockies and trek across Kansas. Ahead of this system, moisture will once again increase for the Mid-South. Precipitation chances will increase on Friday with some guidance depicting yet another wintry mix occurring north of I-40. Large model spread and run-to- run inconsistencies keep confidence in any precipitation low (<20%). We will continue to monitor this system over the coming days. ANS && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Lower ceilings are beginning to clear out of TUP. Otherwise, expect VFR conds through tonight with north/northeast winds around 10 kts. A few higher gusts are likely this afternoon. Clouds will thicken from the southwest later tonight into Monday as the next system approaches. There is a low probability of a brief period of PL during the onset of precipitation on Monday due to a layer of dry air below 700 mb. Steady rain will develop at MEM by mid-afternoon with a high confidence that cigs will lower to at least MVFR. There is a low confidence of IFR cigs at MEM by 00z Monday. No LLWS or TSRAs are expected during this forecast period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1219 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 No fire weather concerns are expected through the foreseeable future as minRH values stay above 40% and 20ft winds remain light. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...SJM