946
FXUS64 KMEG 081058
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
458 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 456 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

- A pattern change will bring the first hard freeze (temperatures
  at or below 28 degrees) of the season Monday and Tuesday
  mornings.

- Temperatures return to near normal by mid week as dry conditions
  continue.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Visibilities are deteriorating quickly across nearly the entire
Mid-South due to dense fog. There is some uncertainty with respect
to widespread dense fog, as a deck of cirrus continues to move
into the region from the west. Confidence still remains high
enough to warrant an expansion of the advisory.

Went ahead and expanded the Dense Fog Advisory to cover a large
portion of eastern Arkansas, the entire Missouri Bootheel, and
the rest of west Tennessee along the Mississippi River. Be weary
of rapidly changing visibilities, if you are traveling overnight
and tomorrow morning. The rest of the forecast is on track.

AC3

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1106 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A weak cold front is slowly traversing its way across the region
and was near Dunklin, MO at 9 PM. Plentiful moisture from rain
and southerly flow ahead of this front will enhance the potential
for fog development. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through
9 AM Saturday morning generally for areas along and south of the
I-40 corridor. Conditions have already begun to deteriorate, but
uncertainty lies on the southern reach of the aforementioned
front. If the front stalls a bit further south than anticipated,
adjustments to the advisory may be needed. Nonetheless, use extra
caution when traveling tonight and early tomorrow morning.

Given the weak nature of this front, very little precipitation is
expected tomorrow once it starts moving again. Some models are
trying to depict this front retreating north to bring showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a reinforcing cold front. However, this
scenario is unlikely due to the location of the parent trough and
a much stronger front approaching. While some drizzle is possible
tomorrow, no significant precipitation is anticipated.

The reinforcing front will bring winter-like temperatures to the
area with our first hard freeze of the season occurring Sunday
night into Monday morning. The incoming polar air mass will bring
very cold and very dry conditions to the region to start the work
week.. Dewpoints and morning lows will be in the 20s and low 30s.
The high on Monday is unlikely to exceed 50 degrees, but
temperatures will slowly begin to rebound back to normal by
midweek. Despite a known cold bias by the NBM for very dry air
masses, temperatures are expected to rebound into the 70s by the
weekend Our next chance of rain is not on the horizon which could
raise some fire danger concerns and the ongoing drought across
Mississippi.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 456 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Widespread dense fog will likely linger for a few hours after
sunrise this morning. Winds will vary considerably during the TAF
cycle. Southerly flow will shift from the north again tonight as
another cold front moves across the region. Overnight wind speeds
will increase to 10-15kts with gusts near 25kts. No precipitation
is expected with the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1106 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Cold and dry conditions move in this weekend behind a cold front.
Monday and Tuesday afternoons look the driest by far with MinRHs
falling below 35% both days, but cold temperatures and light
winds should mitigate fire danger. Humidity and temperatures

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JDS