Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
195 FXUS64 KMEG 301052 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 552 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 550 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 - High pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather through next weekend. - Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025 High pressure continues to dominate our forecast as a large 590 dm ridge axis spans from the northern Gulf to the Midwest. Troughing to our east has failed to consolidate enough to bring meaningful changes in our weather and this pattern is expected to hold through the coming days as the ridge expands. Therefore, highs will remain in the mid to upper 80s through next weekend with overnight temperatures dropping into the low 60s and upper 50s. Additionally, precipitation chances will be low to non-existant during this time as moisture-starved profiles persist. The next chance for a change up in the forecast is expected to arrive later next weekend as the main ridge axis is pushed east. Along the southern periphery of the trough, longer range guidance (ECMWF/GFS) have consistently developed an inverted trough over the northern Gulf coast Sunday. Higher dew points would exist under the trough as Gulf air is pulled northward with it Sunday and into Monday, which could offer our next best chance at some precipitation. However, ensembles have not definitively caught on to this feature yet, meaning that there is uncertainty within the evolution or presence of this feature. Therefore, this forecast could change in the coming days. Regardless of any trough next week, rainfall chances will be scattered at best. So, although we got some rainfall in the last two weeks, much of the region is still in an Extreme (D3) drought. With little to no appreciable rainfall in the forecast, it is reasonable to conclude that drought conditions should be expected to continue worsening through the foreseeable future. Fire danger will also worsen as fuels dry out again. Luckily, light winds will keep more serious fire dangers out of the forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 VFR conditions continue through the current TAF period. Northeasterly winds will increase to 5 to 10 kts in the afternoon and will drop back below 5 kts after 00Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025 Fire weather danger will remain low as minimum relative humidity values remain between 35 and 45 percent through the rest of the week. Additionally, light 20 ft winds are expected to persist through next weekend. No wetting rains are in the forecast through at least this upcoming weekend, which will allow fuels to dry and fire danger to steadily creep up over the next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...CMA