453
FXUS64 KMEG 070525
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1125 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Dense fog is expected early Sunday morning across the Midsouth.
Visibility less than one-quarter mile will accompany any fog.

- Temperatures will moderate through the weekend, warming to near
normal highs in the 50s on Sunday.

- A cold front will pass through the Midsouth late Sunday,
returning temperatures to below normal Monday. By Wednesday,
temperatures will moderate back into the 50s, ahead of a cold
front Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Evening upper air analysis shows a longwave trough axis
stretching from the Great Lakes Region back through West Texas
with an upper-level ridge along the U.S. West Coast. GOES
nighttime fog product and regional METAR observations show an
area of low stratus along the I-20 corridor in Mississippi and
another area mostly along and north of I-40 in western and
central Arkansas. Evening surface observations show near
saturation across most sites as of 11 PM with localized reduced
visibility scattered across the forecast area. Latest short-term
and ensemble guidance indicates dense fog and low stratus are
expected to develop overnight especially south of I-40. A Dense
Fog Advisory has been issued for portions of east Arkansas and
all of North Mississippi through 10 AM CST. Conditions will be
monitored overnight for any potential expansion into West
Tennessee.

Short-term model trends continue to indicate a surface low over
West Texas moving along the Gulf Coast while a cold front north
of I-70 in Missouri and Kansas will move south into the region on
Sunday. There is a low chance (20-30%) of rain showers Sunday
afternoon and evening with most areas remaining dry due to
limited moisture accompanying the front. Wintry precipitation
remains very low (10% or less) across northwest Tennessee Sunday
night as colder air is expected to lag behind the precipitation
that will be exiting into middle Kentucky and Tennessee. Cold
high pressure will build in on Monday with highs expected to
surpass the 40s.

Temperatures are expected to moderate for the middle of next week
back into the 50s as high pressure moves east as southerly return
flow develops over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Another cold
front will bring a low chance (20-30%) for rain showers to areas
east of the Mississippi River late next week. Colder arctic air
behind this latter system will result in highs in the 30s with
lows in the teens to lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

IFR, and potentially LIFR, impacts expected at all terminals
through this morning. A stratus deck has lifted north and west of
the region, while another is advecting north across central MS.
CIGs from the south will eventually bring IFR or LIFR
restrictions to MEM/MKL/TUP tonight. In the meantime,
visibilities are anticipated to steadily drop throughout the
night, eventually bringing heavy mist or fog to all terminals.
The onset of any visibility restrictions is still somewhat
uncertain, but the most likely time is around 09z-10z. Regardless
of any fog, CIGs are likely to remain well into Sunday morning
with clouds only lifting into MVFR after 18z, lasting through the
end of the period. Some erosion to MVFR is possible around TUP
around 00z, but MVFR should prevail before some light rain
showers move in during the final 6 hours of the TUP TAF.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Patchy dense fog will affect much of the Midsouth again early
Sunday. No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with
MinRH values remaining above 40%. Other than isolated to scattered
showers on Sunday, dry conditions are expected through midweek.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for ARZ026-027-035-036-
     048-049-058.
MO...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JAB