Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
381 FXUS64 KMEG 152333 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 533 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1224 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 - Sub-freezing morning temperatures in the 20s are expected across the area on Tuesday before a rapid warm-up begins. - Widespread rain showers are expected on Thursday as a cold front moves through. A few isolated thunderstorms will occur, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. - Temperatures will climb to well above normal early next week, with near-record warmth expected by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1224 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Arctic air remains over the Mid-South this morning, evidenced by single digit dewpoint temperatures and air temperatures only in the mid to upper 20s. High temperatures will climb above the freezing mark by late afternoon. With significant dry air still in place tonight, subfreezing temperatures in the 20s will occur areawide by Tuesday morning. The Arctic airmass will quickly modify on Tuesday as return flow strengthens across the region. High temperatures will rebound to near normal with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s. By Wednesday, a robust PAC-NW trough will eject across the Cascades and deepen as it moves into the Northern Plains on Thursday. Gulf maritime air will surge north ahead of a deep surface low with PWAT values approaching 1 inch or near the 90th percentile for this time of year. Prefrontal showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop in the warm sector, but lack the necessary instability for severe weather. Joint probabilities of MUCAPE > 250 J/kg, MUCIN >-25, and 0-500 mb Bulk Wind Shear > 30 knots are only pinging in the 20 to 30% range and only for portions of extreme SE Arkansas and NW Mississippi. QPF totals will range from a quarter to half an inch as the cold front moves across the region. The cold front will quickly exit the area late Thursday night with cool Canadian air settling into the Mid-South for about 24 hours. Lows will fall below freezing Friday morning and climb only into the 40s during the day. Surface high pressure will quickly slide east by Friday night. Another quick moving cold front will push across the region late Saturday night into Sunday. The parent low is expected to orphan the front, which will stall and eventually lift back north. A 10 to 20% chance of rain will continue into early next week as weak shortwaves pivot through northwest flow aloft. The middle of the next week looks particularly warm as the subtropical ridge builds north and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. ECMWF ESAT climatology percentiles are maxed out for 500mb heights by next Wednesday along with 2 meter temperatures, suggesting near-record warmth for late December. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 532 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 VFR conditions continue for at least the next 30 hours as high pressure remains over the region. SKC with southerly winds between 5-10 kts are expected through tomorrow evening. A high cirrus shield will move in at the end of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Humidity values will climb back into the 30-40% range on Tuesday as the dry airmass modifies. Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise by midweek as another cold front brings an 80-90% chance of wetting rains on Thursday. Above normal temperatures will return this weekend along with increasing humidity. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...CAD