Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
631 FXUS64 KMEG 040426 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1126 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1124 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s. - A chance for showers will return to the region early next week. - The end of next week features a cold front that will bring seasonable temperatures back to the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 High pressure will linger over the Mid-South this weekend before eventually drifting into the Mid-Atlantic early next week. Ridging aloft will keep above normal temperatures in place with daily highs ranging from the mid to upper 80s. A weak low pressure system is forecast to develop over the Gulf this weekend and slowly push inland, allowing increased moisture to funnel into the Mid-South. Isolated showers return on Monday with greater widespread rainfall chances existing on Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the Central Plains. Eventual FROPA is slated for Wednesday morning with showers and storms tapering off through the afternoon. Overall, the current forecast keeps rainfall totals less than 0.75 inches. However, given PWATs near the 90th percentile, wouldn`t be surprised to see this total increase over the next few forecast runs. The backside of the cold front will feature near normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Long term forecast models hint at another cold front approaching next weekend as an upper level trough pushes across the Great Lakes Region. It remains too early to tell the precise impacts, but this system may bring the next round of rain to the Mid-South. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Lower 60s surface dewpoints have edged into the TN River Valley late this evening. Latest HRRR run and the 00Z HREF suggest that this slight increase in moisture could result in patchy radiational fog between MKL and the TN River toward 12Z. Otherwise, a persistence forecast over the next 30 hours, with VFR and light easterly winds. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Fire weather concerns will remain low this weekend as 20ft winds remain less than 10 mph and MinRH hovers around 40 percent. Wetting rains return next week, keeping fire weather potential to a minimum. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...PWB