920
FXUS64 KMEG 190414
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1114 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1114 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

- Hot and humid conditions will continue today. Heat indices will
  range between 105 and 109 this afternoon west of the Mississippi
  River.

- Triple digit heat indices will persist through the weekend,
  though scattered showers and thunderstorms will provide
  localized relief from the oppressive heat.

- The heat will return and intensify throughout the workweek,
  with dangerous heat indices in excess of 110 expected over much
  of the Mid- south by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

A muggy night is underway with temperatures currently in the upper
70s to low 80s. Temperatures will not stray too far from where they
are as morning lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s
Saturday morning. Elevated southerly winds through the night will
continue to transport Gulf moisture to the Mid-South from what was
once a tropical disturbance. This moisture transport is largely on a
southeast path across northeast Mississippi as a stalled frontal
boundary hangs around southern Illinois. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop along this moisture transport and storm initiation
could be as early as 6 AM. Typical summer (pulse-like) convection is
expected with low confidence in severe thunderstorms.

The aforementioned northeast moisture flow will enhance cloud
coverage in addition to rain cooled surfaces, will eliminate heat
headlines east of the Mississippi River. Unfortunately, areas to the
west of the river do not get relief and will have heat indices
between 105-109. A Heat Advisory will go into effect at 11 AM until
9 PM for this area. Probabilities of heat indices exceeding 105
degrees east of the Mississippi River are 20% or less, so confidence
is too low at this time to expand in coverage the advisory.

Sunday is generally a rinse and repeat of Saturday as that stalled
frontal boundary remains parked to our north. No heat headlines have
been planned for Sunday at this time, but given the lack of a
synoptic pattern change, a Heat Advisory for along and west of the
Mississippi River could be warranted.

Precipitation chances will wean as we enter the work week and high
heat and humidity return with vengeance. The Mid-South is in a
moderate to high risk of extreme heat from July 26 through August
1. A 594 dam ridge will dominate the forecast and heat advisories
and possibly extreme heat warnings are likely. Heat advisories
appear more probable as the ridge will squash the slightest of
moisture and decrease dew points slightly, but typical hot spots
like the Delta Region may not be sparred. Plan now for ways to keep
cool as a heat dome looks to set up.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Typical summer conditions over the next 24-30 hours. VFR outside
of any thunderstorm activity. South to southwest winds generally
6kts or less during nighttime hours, 6-12kt during the day.
Highest confidence for thunderstorms tomorrow is at TUP, lowest at
JBR. As such, will carry PROB30`s at MKL and MEM, and TEMPO at
TUP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Benign fire weather conditions will persist through the weekend as
wetting rain chances are on the rise. Hot and humid conditions
will persist with dry conditions returning early into the work
week.


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JDS