452
FXUS64 KMEG 230521
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1121 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 648 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Cooler and dry conditions will wrap up our weekend. High
  temperatures will be in the low 60s to low 70s on Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast on
  Monday, lasting into Tuesday.

- Much cooler temperatures round out the end of next week with
  highs on Thanksgiving in the 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 648 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Low clouds and patchy fog are expected across the Midsouth Sunday
morning as a weak trough shifts east across the Appalachians.
Wind speeds should remain around 3-5 mph tonight limiting the
threat of widespread fog. Surface high pressure and a ridge aloft
will shift over the Mississippi River Valley over the next 24
hours resulting dry and cooler conditions to wrap up our weekend.

Rain and thunderstorms return to the region late Monday as an
upper-level trough shifts into the Plains setting up
southwesterly flow across the middle and lower Mississippi River
Valley. Timing of the trough will be a limiting factor for the
severe potential, but shear profiles and LREF joint probabilities
indicate a low end chance of strong to severe storm from east-
central Arkansas into north Mississippi. A midlevel jet streak
around 50kts should help storms maintain healthy updrafts well
after peak heating. SPC`s Monday outlook includes a Marginal
Risk (level 1/5) for Monday mainly across the MS Delta.
Conditions should favor storm clusters capable of producing large
hail and damaging wind.

A cold front will move across the region Tuesday bringing an end
to the showers and thunderstorms although some storms could
linger in northeast Mississippi through sunset. Storm total
precipitation should be highest in northeast Mississippi and east
central Arkansas (up to 1.5 inches). Most of the region can
expect around 1-1.25 inches.

A dry and cooler weather pattern is expected Wednesday through
Friday. High temperatures will dip into the 50s Wednesday, with
overnight lows in the 30s by Thanksgiving morning. For those with
any outdoor plans for the holiday, plan for dry conditions and
chilly temperatures. This pattern will continue into next
weekend, with a high pressure in place across the region.

Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Satellite shows a pretty expansive stratus deck across west
Tennessee and east Arkansas sinking south. Guidance is in good
agreement that CIGs will be socked in between MVFR/IFR through the
overnight period. Ceilings should improve quickly after sunrise
as surface high pressure nudges east across the Mississippi River
Valley. VFR conditions and light NE winds will return no later
than 18Z Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 648 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future, with
minRH values remaining above 40% through at least the middle of
next week. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area
Monday and into Tuesday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CAD