306
FXUS64 KMEG 041800
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

* A medium chance (40 to 60%) of a light wintry mix is expected
Thursday afternoon and evening across portions of eastern
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. Rain,
sleet, and snow are all anticipated.

* Impacts will be limited to slick bridges, overpasses, and
elevated surfaces, which typically freeze first.

* Below normal temperatures will persist into next week with
highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The upper pattern today reveals mostly zonal flow across the
CONUS with a low-amplitude shortwave translating east across the
Southern Plains. Ahead of this feature, a cold front extends
across the Ohio River Valley into the Appalachian Mountains,
slowly travelling south. Temperatures across the Mid-South are
generally in the mid to upper 30s. Through tonight, the wave to
our west will pass through the region, along with the cold front,
producing our next round of precipitation.

The main mechanism for precipitation will be a combination of jet
dynamics in the right entrance region of a 300 mb jet streak and
weak isentropic ascent near the surface. The overlap of these
features will be short-lived, as the upper jet races to the east
overnight. Therefore, precipitation is expected to only last for
a few hours. However, impacts from wintry precipitation are
possible as a sub-freezing wet bulb profile exists from the
surface to around 700 mb as seen on most guidance and MEM ACARS
profiles. Precipitation, which has already begun, will grow in
coverage throughout this afternoon and last until just after
midnight Friday.

Now, let`s get into the specifics of impacts regarding the
potential winter weather. Model guidance and upper air
observations show a well defined cold layer below 700 mb. So,
although temperatures may be above freezing right at the surface,
enough of the temperature profile is expected to wet bulb below
freezing to allow sleet and snow to develop this afternoon. Most
model guidance produces sleet and snow along and north of I-40,
which has already started to fall per mPing reports across
eastern AR. The exact position of all snow versus wintery mix is
still a bit uncertain at this time but areas along and north of a
line between Dyersburg and Paris TN are most likely to see
accumulating snow. The exact amount of accumulation will depend
on where this interface sets up, but areas that see mostly snow
can expect anywhere from .1" to .3" of snow accumulation. The
HRRR has been consistently throwing up to 1" of snow in this
area, but is definitely the high-end scenario. If it were to
verify, a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed later this
afternoon. Sleet accumulations will be light to non-existent as
most surfaces are above 32 F still, but some sleet/snow could
accumulate on overpasses, bridges, and other elevated surfaces
that cool much easier. Areas to the south of this sleet/snow line
are expected to see only rain, and with temperatures remaining
above freezing, are not expected to experience any freezing rain.

Precipitation will leave the region shortly after midnight as the
upper wave lifts off to our east. There is potential for some
patchy fog, especially in areas that see rain today. Overnight
temperatures will decrease below freezing as far south and east
as Oxford MS, which could increase the chances of patchy freezing
fog. However, models struggle to keep enough moisture to bring
our confidence to high enough to include within the forecast at
this time. Regardless, lows will bottom out in the low 30s and
mid to upper 20s Friday morning. Dry weather will then prevail
through at least Sunday, where a few rain showers are possible as
a weak surface low passes to our north. A cold front behind this
system will suppress temperatures again Monday, before warming
into the middle of next week with highs reaching into the 40s and
50s. The upper pattern will by this point be locked into
northwesterly flow with good ensemble agreement on this regime
lasting from Tuesday through the end of the period. Therefore,
the forecast will remain mostly dry into the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

At 18Z, A corridor of RAPL was noted on radar from around DRP to
NQA and points northward. To the south, an additional area of
RAPL near PBF may lift to near MEM after 19Z. Air temps will
remain above freezing through 00Z at all TAF sites.

Back edge of RAPL will likely exit MEM by the start of the
inbound push, though patchy light DZ or flurries cannot be ruled
out through 06Z. Post-frontal IFR CIGs should prevail overnight
at all but perhaps JBR. Drier air should mix in post-sunrise,
followed by improving flight conditions.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with minRH
values remaining above 40%.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB