Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
505 FXUS64 KMEG 191147 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 547 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 547 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 - Dry and mild weather is expected on Wednesday with highs from the upper 60s along the Kentucky and Missouri borders to around 80 across parts of north Mississippi. - Wet and unsettled weather will return for Thursday and Friday with the potential for 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall through Friday night. - Weekend looks mostly dry and a little cooler, though still above normal. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 A weak cold front has dropped into northern parts of the Mid-South this evening. A severe storm produced large hail earlier this evening near the KY border. Storms have generally been on a weakening trend over the last 90 mins as the airmass gradually stabilizes. There is enough instability to support some strong storms with small hail and gusty winds over the next couple of hours. Storms will gradually sag south and weaken and eventually push east of the area well after midnight. The cold front will stall across the area on Wednesday as broad upper ridging strengthens over the region in advance of the system ejecting from the SW US. This will result in a dry and mild day with a good deal of clouds. Temps will be cooler north of the boundary with highs in the upper 60s along the KY/MO borders. Near record highs are likely south of the boundary, especially across north MS. Moist, SW flow aloft will start to increase later Wednesday and continue into Thursday as a system enters the Southern Plains. Overrunning will develop along the stalled frontal boundary resulting in numerous showers and thunderstorms spreading ENE into the Mid-South. Best chances of rain through Thursday evening will be along and north of the boundary, or roughly north of the TN/MS state line. A cold front will push into the region on Friday and Friday night with higher rain chances spreading over the entire Mid-South. Severe chances look pretty meager at this point. The upper support is rapidly weakening as it pushes into the region and instability fields are unimpressive. The front will push east of the region Friday night. Rainfall amounts will be lucky to reach one inch south of the TN/MS line. Higher amounts, up to perhaps 2 inches, will be confined to areas north of I-40. Models continue to favor a break in activity this weekend with the next system of the SW US/northern Mexico moving slowly and some upper ridging building toward the Mid-South. Saturday will probably be cloudy and damp to start. Sunday is looking decent as the upper ridging arrives. The system over the SW US will probably push into the region later Monday into Tuesday with more rain chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Multiple areas of MVFR CIGs are currently draped across the Mid- South this morning and will be the primary impact to aviation with this TAF issuance. Current expectations are for these clouds to persist this morning alongside the arrival of an additional area of MVFR/IFR CIGs from the north. Some diurnal lifting and/or erosion is possible by early afternoon, which could bring VFR conditions back to the region. However, this aspect of the forecast is still quite uncertain and will depend on observations later this morning to sort out. Therefore, have allowed for MVFR at MEM/JBR/MKL this morning with a gradual rise into VFR by mid afternoon. Regardless of how the forecast evolves this afternoon, guidance brings CIGs back over the region tonight. CIGs are expected to eventually drop into MVFR at MEM/JBR/MKL and remain that way until tomorrow morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 No fire weather concerns are anticipated over the next seven days. A wet and unsettled pattern will prevail over the Mid-South during the end of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...JAB