766
FXUS64 KMEG 171732
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1132 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Above-normal temperatures will continue through the week.

- Wet and unsettled weather, including periods of showers and
  thunderstorms, will return this week, with the potential for 1
  to 3 inches of total rainfall. Most rain will fall after
  midweek.

- Cooler conditions are anticipated next weekend with highs in
  the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Cooler conditions have arrived in the Midsouth behind a weak cold
front that is currently located along the Gulf Coast. High
temperatures this afternoon will be in the middle 60s to low 70s.
A few echoes are showing up on radar over east Arkansas, but with
dew-point depressions of 20 to 30 degrees it will take some time
for any rainfall to make it to the ground. Additionally, weak
instability and a capping inversion should limit the threat of any
significant rain or thunderstorms this afternoon or early this
evening.

The front along the Gulf Coast will quickly return north as a
warm front this evening and overnight, pushing north of the
Midsouth before midday tomorrow. Return flow behind the front will
usher in a moister and warmer airmass across the region and
result in a higher chance of rainfall, along with the potential
for a few thunderstorms. The chance for thunderstorms will
increase toward sunrise tomorrow as a surface low tracks across
central Missouri. Additionally, behind the warm front, winds will
strengthen significantly. NBM probabilistic guidance shows a low
to medium (10-40%) chance of wind gusts above 40 mph, with the
highest chance north of Memphis oriented along the Mississippi
River Valley. Strong WWA will result in near record high
temperatures, around 80 degrees, in northeast Mississippi tomorrow
afternoon.

In the upper levels, a Colorado low and a weak trough will track
from the Central Rockies into northern Illinois by Midday
tomorrow. Meanwhile, a 40-45 kt LLJ oriented from northwest
Arkansas into southern Illinois will help to provide lift,
primarily across northern portions of the Midsouth. As these
ingredients come together late tonight into early tomorrow,
elevated thunderstorms could pose a minimal risk (less than 5%)
for small hail.

A transient ridge will limit the chance of rain and thunderstorms
late Tuesday night into Wednesday and result in warmer
temperatures across the Midsouth. Near record highs (around 80
degrees) are possible again across north Mississippi. NBM
probabilistic output even shows about a 10% chance that portions
of northeast Mississippi could reach 85 degrees Wednesday
afternoon. While the chance of getting that warm is very low, record
highs are only in the low 80s.

After midweek, the ridge will shift east and a deepening cutoff
low over the Desert Southwest will result in strengthening
southwest flow from south Texas across the middle and lower
Mississippi River Valley. Our highest rain chance over the next
seven days looks to be late Thursday through late Friday.
Generally 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rain is expected, highest in
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. At this time the
threat of severe storms looks low. Guidance varies a bit for next
weekend, but in general trends toward a cooler and drier
solution.

Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Winds will remain the primary aviation weather impact over the
next 30 hours, as low level pressure gradient responds to an
approaching midlevel trough. Greatest TS chances will remain
focused north of the Mid-South TAF sites.

A southwesterly low level jet (FL020 winds) of 35-40KT and
surface will provide a low end LLWS potential after 06Z. These
elevated winds will veer 30-40 degrees from the surface, before
mixing down after sunrise Tuesday.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 933 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Minimum RH`s this afternoon will dip into the low to middle 20s in
west Tennessee and northeast Mississippi. An increasingly wet
and unsettled pattern will settle over the Mid-South this week.
Fire weather concerns will be minimal through the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...PWB