692
FXUS64 KMEG 262317
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
517 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1248 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

- Chilly weather will continue as below-normal temperatures
persist
  Thanksgiving through the Holiday weekend.

- Rain will return to the Mid-South late Saturday through Sunday
morning.

- Significant uncertainty exists regarding a low-pressure system
next
  Tuesday that could bring heavy rain or a mixed precipitation
  regime to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1248 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Temperatures are running about 10 degrees below normal in the
wake of a frontal passage that occurred last night. The latest
surface analysis places a 991mb low over Lake Superior with a
cold front extending southeast into Appalachia. A secondary low
was analyzed over Virginia with a cold front draped south through
the Carolinas and into the Panhandle of Florida. Gusty northwest
winds will continue through late afternoon with moderate CAA.
Highs will only rise a degree or two warmer this afternoon,
topping out around 50 degrees.

Optimal radiational cooling will occur tonight and again on
Friday as broad surface high pressure remains over the region.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for Thanksgiving with
highs in the upper 40s. There is a high probability of
subfreezing temperatures Friday morning mainly outside of the
Mississippi Delta region.

Operational models are in good agreement with upper level zonal
flow dominating the Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday
with continued below normal temperatures. A mid-level trough will
swing through the Rockies early Saturday and deepen across the
Central Plains Saturday into Sunday. A leading shortwave will
impinge on the region late Saturday night and spread showers
across the Mid-South through late Sunday morning. With limited
moisture returning ahead of the system, no thunder is expected.
The system will quickly eject with dry air moving into the region
Sunday.

The forecast becomes quite uncertain early next week as models
differ on strength and timing of a west coast trough moving
across the southern CONUS. Both the GFS and ECMWF are consistent
with a surface low ejecting out of the Gulf on Tuesday, but the
track and timing still remain markedly different. The ECMWF takes
a more NE track through Alabama, keeping us in a WAA regime with
mainly cold and moderate to heavy rainfall. In contrast, the GFS
keeps the low track through Georgia, introducing a mixed
precipitation regime to the region. Uncertainty remains high
enough to preclude the mention of winter weather impacts on Day
6, but does necessitate the need to message the potential of an
impactful weather system next week. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

High confidence in VFR conditions as high pressure dominates our
weather pattern over the next 24-30 hours. Northwest winds 3-
7 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1248 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

No significant fire weather concerns through the end of the week.
Minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above 30%
across most locations. There is a high probability of freezing
temperatures Friday morning. The next chance of wetting rain will
arrive on Saturday.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JDS