Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
985 FXUS64 KMEG 041119 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 519 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 518 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 - Near-normal temperatures through midweek will give way to a brief warm-up, pushing highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal for Thursday and Friday. - Two subsequent systems will bring periods of light rainfall Friday and again Saturday into Sunday. - Confidence in the exact timing and placement of the weekend rain system remains low due to model differences. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1112 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 High pressure currently resides directly over the Mid Mississippi River Valley and an upper ridge over TX. Light winds and cooler weather continue to prevail within this airmass. A warming trend will occur throughout the week as the upper ridge to our west travels east and southerlies return to the region. Highs will already approach or reach 70 F Tuesday, plateauing in the mid 70s through the rest of the week. A cold front will attempt to pass through the region Wednesday, but is expected to only shortly graze our northern tier of counties. Flow to the north of the southern upper ridge will be mostly zonal through the end of the week. By Friday, a zone of slightly more amplified flow and troughing will approach the region, bringing rain chances along with it. The past few forecast cycles have seen a decent amount of variation between guidance on the timing of this system which has had an impact on surface features. However, within the latest suite of ensemble guidance has started converging on a solution that would allow for sufficient surface moisture for some thunderstorms to develop. The overlap of sufficient CAPE/CIN/SHEAR for severe hazards in this model suite has climbed to around 30% across the southern two-thirds of the region, approaching 50% across north Mississippi. So, thunderstorms are possible (20%-30% chance) the potential for a low-end severe threat depending on future guidance. A front associated with Friday`s precipitation will pass as we move into Saturday. In tandem, the upper pattern will undergo significant amplification with a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS by Sunday. Both the ECMWF/GFS show another shortwave orbiting this larger troughing, passing through the Mid-South sometime Saturday with timing differences. Regardless of the timing, another front will accompany this wave, bringing another shot of cooler air into Sunday and scattered rain showers. Cooler weather will then take over through the end of the forecast period. Temperatures are still slightly uncertain with growing uncertainty in the upper pattern, but highs are expected to be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 VFR. Surface high pressure is slowly shifting to our east. As a result, winds will be generally from the south 8-10kts today and tomorrow, 4-7kts overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 918 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 Low fire weather danger expected through the forecast period with minimum relative humidity values above 40 percent and light 20 ft winds. Expect a warm up over the coming days with a chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday alongside a cold front. Another front will pass shortly after Saturday with an additional batch of rain showers. Cooler weather will then prevail after Sunday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...JDS