Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
848 FXUS64 KMEG 101612 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 - A hard freeze (temperatures below 28 degrees) will impact the Mid-South Tuesday morning with blustery conditions making it feel even colder. - Temperatures will return to near normal by mid-week with continued dry conditions. - Rain chances return this weekend with a warmup to the mid 70s. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 After morning lows in the upper 20s, temperatures are slowly warming under strong CAA. Cold air stratocu is redeveloping across West TN and north MS with a few flurries, mainly along the TN River. Temps will struggle to reach 40 in many areas this afternoon which is pushing 25 degrees below normal for this time of year. We could see a couple record record low max temperatures this afternoon. Another very cold night is on tap with better radiational cooling conditions than last night. High pressure will settle over the region with light winds and clear skies. Temps will bottom out especially east of the MS River where winds will be lightest. Expect near record lows with readings ranging from the lower 20s across most of the West TN and north MS to the mid to upper 20s west of the MS River. The deep upper trough over the eastern U.S. will move off the Atlantic Coast as broad upper level high pressure builds in from the west. Milder southwest flow will return on Tuesday as the arctic high pushes southeast. Expect gusty southwest winds on Tuesday afternoon especially across NE AR and the MO Bootheel where we could get somewhat close to advisory criteria. This translates into a steady warming trend through the week with continued dry weather. Temps return to normal by Wednesday with highs in the 60s then climb above normal by the end of the week with highs in the 70s by Friday. A deep upper trough will move onto the west coast by the end of the week. This trough will quickly move across the country with a cold front pushing into the MS Valley probably by late in the weekend. Once the system pushes through the Rockies models tend to diverge. Some model runs cut off the southern part of the trough into an upper low, while some are much more progressive. It will take a couple of days to sort out the details but the general take right now is that rain chances will be on the increase by Sunday, continuing into early next week. Not seeing much of a severe weather threat attm. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 VFR, just a wind forecast over the next 24-30 hours or longer. Northwest winds will strengthen again shortly after sunrise with gusts generally 18-22kts through the early afternoon hours. As a surface low pulls away from the Midsouth and high pressure builds along the Gulf Coast, winds will weaken tonight into early tomorrow as they shift from the west then southwest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Dry and cold air has settled over the the Mid-South behind a cold front. Today and Tuesday afternoon look the driest with minimum RH values falling below 40 percent both days. In combination with gusty winds, minor fire danger will be present through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise mid week as southerly flow returns, but dry conditions will continue. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...JDS