Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
416 FXUS64 KMEG 151701 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1201 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - A warming trend will continue through late week, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s on Friday. - A cold front will pass through the Mid-South Saturday night, bringing the threat of strong to severe storms. Damaging winds, small hail, and localized flash flooding are the primary concerns. - Temperatures will cool significantly Sunday and into the beginning of next week with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tuesday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Warmer than average weather will continue today through the end of the work week as an amplified ridge persists across the central CONUS. Weather will remain dry as deep moisture stays out of the region with surface dew points only reaching into the upper 50s each day. This will allow for large swings in temperatures throughout the day with lows in the 50s quickly climbing into the mid to upper 80s throughout each afternoon. By Friday night, large scale troughing will begin to exit the Rockies and into the central Plains. Guidance is in agreement that a positively-tilted trough will advance towards the Mid-South Saturday ahead of a stronger zone of flow further upstream. Southerlies, in response to the approaching trough, will advect higher moisture into the region through Saturday. Instability will then rise as a consequence with 500 - 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE by Saturday afternoon underneath 30+ kts of effective shear; more than enough for severe thunderstorms. There is still uncertainty regarding the quality of moisture, the timing of the trough, and the evolution of a surface cold front. Regardless, LREF joint probabilities of 500 J/kg MUCAPE and 30+ kts of effective shear remain above 60% through Saturday evening and into Sunday morning. As such, SPC has retained the 15% outlook Saturday, even extending it eastward overnight. Storm mode is also in question still and will be heavily dependent on the evolution of surface features, which as mentioned before are still uncertain. Even with those uncertainties, the main severe hazards still appear to be damaging winds and hail. Weak low level thermodynamics and meager low level shear is currently expected to keep the tornado threat low. Storms will move out of the area Sunday as a cold front passes through the region. Upper troughing will continue to amplify as the area of stronger flow quickly matures the upper cyclone over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Confluence behind this trough will allow for the strengthening of surface high pressure, keeping cooler temperatures across the region. Throughout this time frame, highs will be in the low to mid 70s with lows dropping into the 40s and 50s. Weather will gradually warm the region up through mid-week as ridging amplifies ahead of more troughing to the west. The evolution of this next trough is still muddy with ensembles struggling with a cutoff low off the West Coast, but another strong trough ejection is certainly still on the table sometime next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure remains over the region. Northeast winds below 10 kts will continue over the next 30 hours or so. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Fire danger is expected to remain low through the forecast period. Minimum relative humidity values will be above 30 percent with light 20ft winds. Wetting rain chances will increase this weekend ahead of a cold front with the potential for severe weather Saturday evening and Sunday morning. Weather will then be significantly cooler, and drier, moving into the beginning of next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...AEH