858
FXUS62 KMFL 151710
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
110 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

It`s a very un-June like day across South FL today, with cooler
conditions and light stratiform rain falling over the southern half
of the area due to a weak low/surface trough over the eastern Gulf.
12Z sounding and ACARS data shows plenty of dry air up through about
700 mb and then saturated at the mid and upper levels. Forecast
soundings show the low levels trying to moisten up this afternoon
south of Alligator Alley, but there`s plenty of uncertainty on how
well that will occur. Not enough confidence at this point to
eliminate the remaining Flood Watch over the Broward/Miami-Dade
metro, especially with some convection trying to drift northward
from the FL Straits, but if the fairly stable conditions hold it`s
likely the Watch will be cancelled early.

Mainly dry conditions overnight with most shower activity remaining
over the Atlantic and Gulf waters. It`ll be another mild evening
across the metro areas with lows in the upper 70s to around 80, but
low to mid 70s over interior South FL.

On Sunday the mid/upper level high moves over the southeast US,
which will help bring some drier air into the region. While there
will still be plenty of cloud cover, expect some more peaks of sun
during the day and overall lower PoPs, with the best chances for
scattered showers and storms being over the interior and SW FL with
the E/NE flow. Much warmer temps expected, with afternoon highs in
the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

To start the new work week, the aforementioned surface high
will continue to build across south Florida into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. This will bring us back into a more typical
summertime weather regime of afternoon sea breeze activity.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will favor interior and
southwest areas as the east coast sea breezes develop early
in the afternoon and quickly push inland. But still can`t rule
out a few strong storms affecting any of the east coast metro
areas at times. For now, keeping POPs around 50% for this time
period.

Highs temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s to low
90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s or even triple digits
towards the middle to end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Mainly VFR conditions expected today with BKN to OVC mid level
clouds. Light rain across the area through early this evening
should have little aviation impact. Light westerly winds 5-10 kts will
become light and variable overnight and then become easterly 5-10
kts on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A gentle to moderate south to southwest flow early today will become
north to northeasterly late today as mid/upper level high pressure
starts to build in to our north. Scattered thunderstorms are
possible this weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds
and seas. Outside of thunderstorms, seas will be generally 2 ft or
less this weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible beginning Sunday along
the east coast beaches as onshore flow returns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  88  79  88 /  30  30  20  30
West Kendall     75  89  77  90 /  30  30  10  30
Opa-Locka        77  89  79  90 /  30  30  20  30
Homestead        77  88  79  88 /  30  30  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  79  87  80  87 /  30  40  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  78  88  79  88 /  30  40  20  30
Pembroke Pines   79  91  80  90 /  30  40  20  30
West Palm Beach  77  88  78  88 /  30  40  20  40
Boca Raton       77  89  79  88 /  30  40  20  40
Naples           77  91  76  93 /  40  50  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ072-074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...CMF