409
FXUS62 KMFL 152256
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
656 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Precipitation trends over land have diminished with some activity
still continuing in the Gulf. Cancelled the Flood Watch a bit
early since the east coast metro is looking to remain generally
dry for the rest of the evening. No major changes other than to
adjust the hourly grids to account for observed temperature and
dewpoint trends. Have a wonderful Saturday evening!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

It`s a very un-June like day across South FL today, with cooler
conditions and light stratiform rain falling over the southern half
of the area due to a weak low/surface trough over the eastern Gulf.
12Z sounding and ACARS data shows plenty of dry air up through about
700 mb and then saturated at the mid and upper levels. Forecast
soundings show the low levels trying to moisten up this afternoon
south of Alligator Alley, but there`s plenty of uncertainty on how
well that will occur. Not enough confidence at this point to
eliminate the remaining Flood Watch over the Broward/Miami-Dade
metro, especially with some convection trying to drift northward
from the FL Straits, but if the fairly stable conditions hold it`s
likely the Watch will be cancelled early.

Mainly dry conditions overnight with most shower activity remaining
over the Atlantic and Gulf waters. It`ll be another mild evening
across the metro areas with lows in the upper 70s to around 80, but
low to mid 70s over interior South FL.

On Sunday the mid/upper level high moves over the southeast US,
which will help bring some drier air into the region. While there
will still be plenty of cloud cover, expect some more peaks of sun
during the day and overall lower PoPs, with the best chances for
scattered showers and storms being over the interior and SW FL with
the E/NE flow. Much warmer temps expected, with afternoon highs in
the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Models show fair agreement in pushing a mid level trough/low complex
northeastward across the E CONUS, and into the west Atlantic to
start the long term. This will result in a gradual shift of winds
over SoFlo to a more easterly/northeasterly, which will signal a
return to a more closer-to-normal weather pattern for this time of
the year.

For the first half of the work week, model solutions suggest a sfc
high pressure building across the peninsula from the west Atlantic
and into the E GOMEX, bringing back the aforementioned more normal
summertime weather regime of afternoon seabreeze activity. The
prevailing easterly wind direction should favor better chances for
showers and thunderstorms over interior areas as the east coast
seabreezes should early in the afternoon and quickly push inland.
However, a few strong storms could still affect some of the east
coast metro areas, especially on days with a weak start of the sea
breeze circulations.

Highs temperatures are expected to warm up into the upper 80s to low
90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s or even triple digits
towards the middle and latter portions of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Generally VFR with a mid to upper level cloud deck remaining. Wind
will lighten and become variable overnight before becoming
easterly on Sunday. Morning Atlantic showers and storms cannot be
ruled out and they should transition inland in the afternoon
before pushing into SWFL and the Gulf waters by the evening.
Short-fused AMDs may be needed for sub-VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A gentle to moderate south to southwest flow early today will become
north to northeasterly late today as mid/upper level high pressure
starts to build in to our north. Scattered thunderstorms are
possible this weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds
and seas. Outside of thunderstorms, seas will be generally 2 ft or
less this weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible beginning Sunday along
the east coast beaches as onshore flow returns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  88  80  88 /  20  30  20  50
West Kendall     75  89  77  89 /  20  30  20  40
Opa-Locka        77  89  79  89 /  20  30  20  40
Homestead        77  88  79  88 /  20  30  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  87  80  87 /  20  40  30  40
N Ft Lauderdale  78  88  80  87 /  20  40  20  40
Pembroke Pines   79  91  80  90 /  20  40  20  40
West Palm Beach  77  88  78  88 /  20  40  20  40
Boca Raton       77  89  79  88 /  20  40  30  40
Naples           77  91  77  92 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...RAG