550
FXUS62 KMFL 150542
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1242 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

  - Dry and seasonable conditions will remain in place across
    South Florida through the weekend.

  - Above normal temperatures may return to portions of South
    Florida towards the middle and the end of the week as mid
    level ridging strengthens over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

A couple of weak mid level shortwaves will pass through the region
today into tonight before the mid level flow gradually becomes
more zonal on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will remain
parked over the Florida Peninsula through the entire weekend. This
overall synoptic setup with allow for north to northwesterly
winds aloft today and tonight to become more westerly heading into
Sunday. At the surface, winds will veer and become more easterly
as today progresses. These winds will then diminish and become
light out of the west southwest on Sunday as a weakening frontal
boundary stalls out well to the north. With high pressure holding
strong combined with plenty of dry air throughout the mid to upper
levels, this will allow for the the dry conditions to remain in
place through the weekend as PWATs hover between 0.7 and 0.9
inches during this time frame. High temperatures will remain right
around climatological normals for today and Sunday as they will
rise into the lower 80s across most areas each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

For the early portion of next week, mid level zonal flow will
generally remain in place on Monday. Heading into Tuesday, a mid
level ridge centered off in the Southwestern Gulf will start to
expand northeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. The latest
global and ensemble guidance remains in good agreement with having
this ridge significantly building and intensify over the region
heading into the middle to latter portion of the week.

At the surface, high pressure will generally remain the dominate
synoptic weather feature that will influence the sensible weather
across the region throughout most of the week. A rather light and
variable wind flow on Monday will gradually become easterly on
Tuesday and will slowly start to increase heading towards the
middle to end of the week. This increasing easterly wind flow will
gradually allow for some lower level moisture advection to take
place during this time frame, however it will be taking place at
a rather slow rate. While most areas will remain dry through a
good majority of the week, this moisture advection may introduce
the possibility of a brief isolated shower or two on Tuesday or
Wednesday along the breeze. However, with a strong cap remaining
in place due to the abundance of dry air across the mid to upper
levels, any shower activity will be low topped and short lived.

With easterly wind flow strengthening, high temperatures will
generally remain in the lower 80s across the east coast metro
areas throughout most of the week. However, temperatures will be
on a warming trend elsewhere as mid to upper 80s will be possible
especially across the interior portions of Southwest Florida from
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light
and variable winds overnight will increase out of the ENE after
16z and will remain around 10 kts through the afternoon. At KAPF,
winds will shift and become WNW after 18z as a Gulf breeze
develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

A gentle to moderate east northeasterly breeze will remain in place
across most of the local waters today. The exception to this will be
across the Gulf waters, where winds may become northwesterly in the
afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Winds gradually subside on
Sunday and become gentle out of the west to southwest across most of
the local waters. These winds may once again shift and become
northwesterly in the afternoon across the Gulf waters. Seas across
the Atlantic waters will remain at 2 to 4 feet today before
gradually become 2 feet or less on Sunday. Seas across the Gulf
waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the entire weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue mainly for the Palm
Beaches today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  65  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     81  61  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        81  64  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        80  63  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  79  64  81  64 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  80  65  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   83  64  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  81  64  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       81  64  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           82  63  80  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC