899
FXUS62 KMHX 041355
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
955 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Minor coastal impacts continue for Hatteras Island today. High
pressure will continue building in from the north this weekend
then push offshore early next week allowing for return flow to
finally set up once again. This will bring very warm temperatures
and generally dry conditions to ENC into the beginning of next
week. Cold front approaches during the middle of next week
increasing chances at unsettled weather. High pressure builds in
behind the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 955 AM Sat...Left over fog and low clouds have since
dissipated across ENC as of this update with partly cloudy
skies now noted. Temps have already risen into the 60s this
morning and expect continued warming with temps getting near 80
today inland.

Prev disc... As of 3 AM Sat...A dry albeit seasonably warm day
in store today. Surface high begins to slide east and offshore
keeping NE-E`rly winds light at about 5-10 mph. Dry airmass
aloft will preclude any precip chances for Sat with the area
under partly cloudy skies, with mainly high clouds skirting
through ENC today. Temps wont change much from Fri as low level
thicknesses remain about the same generally ranging from 75-80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sat...With dry airmass in place, in tandem with mo
clear skies and light/calm winds, temps will be cool and
pleasant overnight. Have dropped temps some 3-5 degrees from
prev fcst, and good radiational cooling will allow for lows in
the mid 50s interior, to near 60 mainland coastal areas. A nerly
breeze on the OBX will keep temps warmer with readings in the
mid 60s here.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...Sfc high pressure will be centered off
the Mid- Atlantic coast while upper ridging builds across the
Eastern CONUS into early next week. NE winds continue into
Saturday, then veer to Ely as the sfc high migrates off the Mid-
Atlantic coast. Temps warm to near normal over the weekend and
early next week with highs around 80/lower 80s.

By the middle of next week, the upper ridge breaks down as a strong
northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest
with sfc high pressure migrating farther offshore and a sfc
cold front approaching from the NW bringing increasing chances
of showers and maybe even some thunderstorms across the region.
Instability is lacking, but the strong forcing may be enough to
overcome the lack of instability for thunderstorm formation.

Behind this cold front, high pressure builds in and strong
pressure gradient sets up. This will result in gusty NE winds,
highest over coastal zones. This, paired with king tides, would
bring coastal flooding concerns. See Coastal Flooding section
for more information.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 7 AM Sat...Mainly VFR through the TAF cycle. However,
some tempo MVFR/IFR conditions for several hours are possible at
KPGV through sunrise today. Otherwise, just some passing cirrus
expected through today and into tonight. Winds light nerly
today expected to veer erly later this afternoon, then become
calm tonight. Another chc for fog/low stratus overnight tonight
into early Sun morning, esp for Coastal Plain TAF sites.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term with high pressure building in from the northeast. NE
to E will be less than 15 kt through the period. Cannot rule out
patchy late night fog over the weekend and early next week when
winds will be weaker and low levels decouple overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Sat...Elevated seas cont today into tonight as 5-7
ft seas with 12-13 seconds expected to persist. Winds will be
fairly benign, in the 5-15 kt range, with gusts as high as 20 kt
out of the NE. Winds veer a bit tonight, becoming mainly erly
and remaining in the 5-15 kt range.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...High pressure migrates offshore over
the weekend with easterly winds around 15 kt or less through
Monday, then veers to SE on Tuesday. Seas around 3-6 ft on
Saturday will slowly subside through the long term, although 5-6
footers will linger near the Gulf Stream through Monday. Tuesday
onwards we should be below 6ft across all coastal waters as
boating conditions become much more pleasant than the past
couple days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Lingering swell from ex-Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda:

While we continue to trim ongoing coastal flood warnings and
advisories, continued long period swell and a steady NE`rly wind
will bring minor coastal flooding impacts to Hatteras Island
into today.

Oceanside...Lingering powerful long period swell from the
combination of ex-hurricanes Humberto and Imelda will persist
across ENC beaches into Saturday, bringing dangerous rip
currents, large breaking waves, ocean overwash, coastal
flooding, and wave runup impacts. While impacts continue to
wane as waves gradually lower, there still is the threat for 1
to 2 ft AGL of inundation around times of high tide.

King Tides and potential for strong NE flow mid to late next
week:

Next week we enter a king tide cycle, with astronomically high
tides. The highest tides are expected from Tuesday (10/7) to
Saturday (10/11). By themselves, minor coastal flooding is
expected for typical vulnerable low lying locales. However,
there is potential for strong NE wind gusts behind a cold front
Thursday and Friday. This would help waves build along the
coast, and may also help push some water towards the southern
Pamlico Sound and Neuse river. There is still decent uncertainty
on the strength of the winds, but should they materialize as
forecast, or greater, the compounding effects of strong winds,
higher seas, and king tides could cause greater impacts for
areas with vulnerable dune structures along OBX Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX