464
FXUS62 KMHX 080559
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1259 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through on Monday with low pressure
developing along it, bringing a wintry mix to portions of the area.
High pressure will build back over the area mid week. Another low
and cold front move in late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Sun...Biggest change was to add areas of fog into
the forecast across our coastal plain tonight as recent obs show
fairly widespread visibilities of less than 1 mile with some
patchy visibility reductions of less than 1/2 mile. A special
weather statement is out for Lenoir/Greene/Pitt/Martin counties
to account for the more widespread fog and additional counties
may be needed in the coming hours if trends persist. Given the
current trends wouldn`t be surprised if a Dense Fog Advisory
would be needed later tonight but will monitor trends before
making that decision. Otherwise little else has changed with the
forecast for tonight. No freezing fog is forecast tonight as
temps look to remain above freezing this evening.

Prev Disc...For tonight, partial clearing occurs, leading to
patchy to areas of fog, locally dense at times, esp nwrn
counties. No freezing fog expected, as temps will be warmer than
last night. Lows range from 32-36 inland, to the 40s along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Key messages...

- Wintry mix expected Monday afternoon to evening northwest
  counties.

- Black ice formation Mon night to Tue AM as temperatures fall
  into the 20s. Wet roads from rain and snow Monday become icy
  later Mon night, impacting the Tuesday morning commute.

As of 645 PM Sun...Tricky fcst upcoming with p-type and snow
amount challenges for your Monday. Shortwave trough will swing
through swings through the Southeast states, while sfc
cyclogenesis occurs off the Carolina Coast. A combination of
lowering thicknesses through the day, along with column cooling
through inc lift/uvv and precip loading will lead to rain
changing to a ra/sn mix, possibly mostly snow for our nwrn
counties. Model differences abound however, with some of the
guidance (NAM/FV3/GFS) indicating a colder column and more rapid
changeover to snow, while the Euro, AIFS, CMC, HRRR are warmer
aloft and retain snow the far northwest. Have based the forecast
and snow amts on the ECM, which as been quite consistent, with
any accums relegated to the far nwrn counties. Probabilities for
1" of snow are ~30-60% along the Hwy 64 corridor from Plymouth
to wrn Martin county, ~10-30% for the Hwy 264 corridor from
Washington to Farmville in Pitt County. This makes the most
sense, as temps will be well above freezing through the day Mon,
making it difficult for snow to accumulate. The NAM/GFS are too
bullish on snow amounts given the warmer initial conditions. By
the time temps fall to freezing and below Mon evening, snow
should be tapering off quickly from w to e. For the eastern and
southern counties, predominantly rain is fcst.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...

Key messages...

- Black ice formation Mon night to Tue AM as temperatures fall
  into the 20s. Wet roads from rain and snow Monday become icy
  later Mon night, impacting the Tuesday morning commute.

Dry and seasonably cold mid week. Another weather maker
possible by week`s end, turning much colder next weekend.

Monday night through Tuesday...Biggest impacts from the snow
and precipitation will be the development of black ice, as
temperatures fall through the 20s during the overnight period.
Any rain or snow that falls during the day will freeze up
overnight, esp on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses,
leading to hazardous conditions for the Tue morning commute.

Wednesday through Thursday...Dry conditions expected as high
pressure builds back in at the surface. Highs in the 40s Tue
warming back into the 50s to near 60 Wed and Thu as winds
become Sw. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into the 20s
for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and OBX Tue
night/Wed morning.

Friday through Saturday...Next chc for precip arrives by week`s
end, as next shortwave trough swings through the Ern CONUS.
Latest 07/12Z model suite has trended drier however, so pops
have not been raised, and remain at 20-30%. At this time, ptype
looks to remain all liquid. Much colder air expected behind the
front for next weekend with highs back into the 40s and lows
in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1 AM Monday...

Key Messages...

- IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities continue through dawn
  Monday morning

- IFR conditions will largely persist through most of tomorrow
  as rain/snow moves into the area

Conditions have quickly deteriorated over the past couple of
hours as dense fog has developed across much of ENC, with all
TAF sites except ISO noting VIS at or under 1/2 mile. Guidance
has handled the onset timing and density of fog poorly thus far
tonight. Current expectation is for fog to persist for another
few hours before beginning to mix out around dawn as winds
increase as a low begins to develop offshore. While this will
likely lead to improving VIS in the morning, IFR ceilings are
expected to persist through the morning, with only a low chance
(20-30%) of seeing temporary improvements to MVFR ceilings
Monday morning. With temperatures hovering at or slightly below
freezing across the northwestern portions of the forecast area
(across Pitt, Martin, and Greene Counties, and including PGV),
freezing fog is also possible tonight.

Rain is then forecast to track into the area starting late
morning into the early afternoon from west to east. A
changeover to a mix of rain and snow and then all snow is
forecast late afternoon/early evening with the greatest risk
for this to occur being across PGV/ISO and the northwestern
portions of the forecast area. There remains potential for a
more widespread changeover to snow (or rain/snow mix) across
additional terminals as far south as OAJ/EWN but have opted to
only include mention of -SNRA within a PROB30 group for these
terminals as of this cycle. Northerly winds increase today,
peaking in the afternoon hours with gusts to around 20 kts
expected, before decreasing overnight. IFR conditions are
likely to continue at least into the evening hours.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions may persist into Tuesday morning
before VFR conditions return through at least midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Sun...

Key Messages

- Strong winds and dangerous seas expected Monday and Monday
  night.

Tonight...Generally light nrly flow cont with speeds of 5-15 kt
and seas of 2-4 ft.

Mon through Tue...Backdoor front passes through and strong
north to northeast winds develop. Latest 07/12Z guidance has inc
winds, and have expanded gales to all marine zones except for
inland rivers, with winds speeds of 20-30 kt, gusting to 35 kt
expected. Higher gusts up to 40 kt poss on the warmer well mixed
outer waters. Seas will quickly increase to 6-10 ft Monday and
continue into early Tue, subsiding below 6 ft late Tue.

Wed...The break in strong winds and high seas is short-lived,
as a swrly gradient inc later Wed through Wed night, with speeds
of 15-25 kt expected, and 25-35 kt over the warm Gulf waters
south of Oregon Inlet. Seas build back up to 6-10 ft south of
Oregon Inlet.

Thu through Fri...Winds and seas relax as high pres builds back
into the region, with NW winds generally 5-15 kt and seas of 2-4
ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044-
     045-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight
     EST tonight for NCZ029-044-045.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this
     evening for AMZ131-135-150-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight EST
     tonight for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight
     for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...TL