217
FXUS62 KMHX 170549
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1249 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front shifts offshore tonight. Cooler high pressure
then builds back in from the northwest early this week, with
another quick moving front pushing through the area by mid-week.
Behind this system, a warming trend will bring increasing
temperatures through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 640 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Brief cooldown tonight into Monday night

A cold front is progressing through ENC, about to shift
offshore. Behind the front, strong CAA will send temperatures
falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s, which is right around, or
slightly below, normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

High pressure will build in from the west through the day
Monday, which will eventually lead to much lighter winds.
However, continued CAA and enhanced mixing during the morning
and early afternoon hours will combine with a residually modest
pressure gradient to support several hours of breezy winds from
just after sunrise through around 1-2pm. The continued CAA
behind the front will also help to keep temps down much lower
compared to today, with highs topping out in the upper 50s to
near 60. With high pressure squarely overhead Monday night,
winds are expected to be very light, setting up decent
radiational cooling conditions. Normally this type of setup
would favor going below blended guidance. However, the potential
for mid/high clouds suggests radiational cooling effects may be
tampered some. Additionally, bias-corrected blended guidance is
already below the 25th percentile of all guidance. Lows around
the 25th percentile of guidance appears reasonable in this
setup, especially given the potential for high clouds, so no
change from guidance was made. Regardless, widespread low to mid
30s appears likely. The coldest locations with limited
cloudcover could see lows fall below freezing. The areas most
likely to get close to, or below, freezing are the same counties
where the frost/freeze program has ended for 2025, therefore no
headlines are anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

Key Messages:

 - Extended period of above normal temperatures appears likely
   from mid-week on

 - Stronger frontal system possible late week/early next weekend

Another cold front will cross ENC Tuesday night, but this one
also looks fairly moisture starved with only slight chance PoPs
in the forecast for northern zones. Guidance has trended towards
stalling this boundary across the region through the later half
of the week, but this is only expected to bring increased cloud
cover with no rain chances expected. Temperatures will reach
the low to mid 70s Wednesday through Saturday.

Next weekend looks to bring a stronger frontal system that will
bring a better chance of rain to the area (20-30%).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Monday...

Key Messages:

- VFR conditions expected through the TAF period

- NW winds gusting to 15-20 knots today

High pressure builds into the region through the TAF period
bringing mainly clear skies. NW winds will gust around 15-20 kt
from mid morning through the afternoon, then will quickly
become light/calm early this evening as we decouple.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through Tuesday with high
pressure building across the region. A couple of weak systems
transit the area Tuesday night through Thursday that could bring
isolated showers across rtes with lower cigs, however guidance
keeps VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Elevated to strong winds to continue into this evening

 - Elevated seas to last into Monday

 - Elevated winds and seas potentially return late in the week

West to southwest winds of 15-25kt are ongoing at this time,
with higher gusts. The strongest winds are currently impacting
the warmer coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, where gusts of
30-35kt have been observed at times. Winds may lay down a bit
over the next few hours, but a cold front will move through this
evening, with a renewed round of enhanced mixing potentially
supporting a continued risk of 25-35kt gusts. In light of this,
the Gale Warning has been extended out through 10pm this
evening. Elsewhere, wind gusts look to hold in the 25-30kt
range, and SCAs will continue there. Winds will lay down more
substantially by Monday afternoon, and especially by Monday
night as high pressure builds in.

For the coastal waters north of Cape Lookout, seas of 4-8ft are
expected to continue through tonight, then lay down to 2-4ft by
Monday night. South of Lookout, seas of 4-7ft this afternoon
are expected to lay down to 2-4ft by Monday afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure moves offshore on Tuesday, with
southerly flow developing. Winds will then flip back and forth
between south and north as a couple of weak fronts move through.
At this time, these fronts are not expected to support 25kt, or
higher, winds. By late in the week, strengthening southerly
flow may support the next round of 25kt+ winds and 6ft+ seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1230 AM Monday...

Key Messages:

 - Dry conditions with minimum relative humidity around 20-35%
   this afternoon

 - Wind gusts around 15-20 mph today

High pressure will build into the area today bringing a very dry
airmass. After a night with only moderate RH recoveries around
50-60%, minimum RH values are expected to be around 20-25%
across much of the coastal plain and 25-35% closer to the coast
this afternoon. NW winds are expected to gust around 15-20 mph
with the higher end from mid morning once deeper mixing
commences to mid day, then gradients gradually relax with the
gustiness gradually diminishing through the afternoon. Although
minimum RHs will meet criteria for an Increased Fire Danger
Statement, the winds will remain below the threshold and will
forgo issuing an IFD.

High pressure will become centered over the area tonight and
Tuesday with a dry airmass remaining in place and expect minimum
RH values around 25-35% away from the coast but winds will be
light at mainly less than 10 mph.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/RJ
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...RM
FIRE WEATHER...MHX