268
FXUS62 KMHX 210800
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move through ENC today followed by a cold
front pushing through the area late Saturday. Cooler and drier
high pressure rebuilds Sunday into early next week before
another frontal system brings the next chance of rain Tuesday
into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Inc isentropic ascent occuring this morning,
with rain breaking out acrs ctrl and wrn NC. This area of lift
will slide ewrd through the morning while weak sfc warm front
begins lifting northward through ENC. Have inc rain chances
markedly for the FA, esp acrs the nrn half, where best lift will
be realized. Have inc sky cover to mo cloudy to ovc, as
widespread cloud cover all areas will keep temps on the cooler
side, and have dec temps accordingly. Highs range from around 70
for the south, where little rain will occur, to around 60
north, where up to a tenth of an inch or so of rain will fall,
along with lowered cigs hanging on all afternoon in wake of the
rain today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Fri...The area becomes mostly dry slotted tonight as
all of ENC will be in the warm sector, with sfc cold front and
sfc forcing west of the region. Can`t rule out some spotty light
rain from time to time, and held onto a 20% pop most areas. Very
warm and muggy for late Nov and temps generally remaining in the
lower 60s through the night. Temps may creep up through the late
night as swrly breezes inc to 5-10 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2 PM Thu...Mainly mild conditions expected with above
climo temps through mid next week. Chances for light rain Sat
through early Sat night. Another system brings rain chances by
mid next week.

Sat...On Sat, ENC is in warm sector with highs rebounding back
into the 70s as warm front will have lifted north. Kept pops in
the chc range for now Saturday and Saturday night. Rain amts do
not appear impressive, but perhaps some areas could see a
wetting rain. Could still see a few rumbles of thunder if
surface heating is strong enough and utilizes the modest
instability present. Best chc for thunder generally along and west
of a PGV to EWN to MRH line where the area will be south of
quickly advancing cold front to the north.

Sun through Mon...High pressure is then forecast to build in
behind the early weekend front, with dry conditions ensuing.
Zonal flow will be in place, so temps should be around avg
during this period, with highs in the 60s to near 70 and lows in
the 40s. Sun night will be the coolest night, with lows in the
30s interior to 40s coast.

Tue through Wed...Next chance for rain arrives by Tue, and esp
Tue night into early Wed, as shortwave and frontal boundary
sweep through. This system has the potential to tap into some
GOM moisture, as layer streamlines are out of the sw through the
SE CONUS, but timing and mesoscale features are yet to be ironed
out, so no higher than 30-50% pops this far out in time. Temps
rebound to warmer than climo, with highs in the 70s and lows in
the 40s to 50s.

Thanksgiving Day...Should be on the dry side, as 21/00Z guidance
and respective ensembles have trended drier with a clean frontal
passage by Wed night. Have advertised no higher than 20% with
near climo highs in the low/mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 AM Fri...

Key Messages

 - Chance of fog and low stratus tonight with the greatest
   potential north of Highway 70 and west of Hwy 17

 - Chances for showers and sub-VFR conditions tomorrow as a
   weak warm front lifts through the area

 - Lower than average confidence forecast

Difficult aviation forecast this morning as weak area of high
pressure remains wedged over eastern NC this morning, while weak
area of elevated isentropically driven rainfall quickly makes
its way eastward across the state ahead of a warm front to our
west. Thick mid-level cloud cover also accompanies this feature.
Flight conditions have generally been MVFR, although there have
been frequent bounces to VFR and then IFR where mid-level cloud
breaks have occurred.

Transitory fog and low stratus remain likely in the next few
hours, becoming less likely as mid-level cloud deck continues to
thicken. After sunrise, cigs likely to remain at MVFR with
increasing rain risk as WAA strengthens atop the frontal
inversion. Some brief drops to IFR are possible in heavier
precipitation, but predictability is too low to explicitly
mention in TAFs this cycle. Did add PROB30s to all terminals
given increase in confidence from 00z guidance suite.

Rain ends from west to east, clearing TAF terminals no later
than 19z, although MVFR will likely linger for a few more hours
especially north of EWN. Predominantly VFR returns overnight
with uptick of southwesterly winds ahead of another mid-level
disturbance.

Outlook: Yet another chance for Sub-VFR conditions over the
weekend when a series of approaching, and eventually passing,
fronts increase rain chances and sky cover. Highest chances
currently Sat evening into Sun morning. VFR likely beyond Sunday
as cooler high pressure builds in behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 AM Fri...SCA has been issued for the srn and ctrl waters
late tonight through late Sat night.

Today...Light/vbl winds this morning become srly today as weak
warm front lifts north. Seas cont 2-4 ft.

Tonight...Swrly gradient inc ahead of approaching cold front.
Will see winds inc to 15-25 kt g 30 kt over the mixed Gulf
waters, where SCA is in effect now. Elsewhere, marine inversion
in place with the warm airmass overspreading cooler shelf and
sound waters, where winds of 10-15 kt g 20 kt expected. The
swrly flow lingers into Sat.

Sat night...Strong cold front sweeps south with nrly wind surge
expected 15-25 kt all waters and sounds. It appears the wind
surge may be brief enough to preclude SCA issue elsewhere (< 6
hrs), but will have to monitor later forecasts for any expansion
to SCA suite.

Sunday through Monday...Improving wind and wave conditions with
sub SCA expected, which will linger into early next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EST Sunday
     for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...TL