219
FXUS62 KMHX 011959
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
259 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will move across the Carolina
coast tomorrow. High pressure then rebuilds into the area from
the north through midweek before another low pressure system
impacts the region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Mon...

Key Messages...

 - Rain chances increasing overnight, with locally heavy
   rainfall possible

 - A few thunderstorms possible overnight with a very low risk
   of a strong storm or two

Latest analysis this afternoon shows mainly zonal mid-level flow
over the southeastern CONUS including the Carolinas, while a
positively tilted trough digs into the southern plains. At the
surface, wedge of high pressure remains locked in place over
much of the mid-Atlantic while a stalled front continues to sit
over the northern GoA.

Plume of anomalously deep Gulf moisture is expected to advect
across much of the southeast and into the mid-Atlantic overnight
as mid-level trough continues to dig into the southern MS River
Valley. A PWAT of 1.5 - 1.75" may not seem significant in the
summer, but in early December these values are in the 95%
percentile of climatology. The progression of the trough will
also result in multiple waves of low pressure deepening along
the aforementioned frontal boundary, one of which is forecast to
lift just inland across our FA Tuesday.

Stratiform rain is expected to begin lifting across the FA after
midnight with strengthening WAA, while convection will develop
over the warm Gulf Stream and drift towards the coast. The bulk
of this activity will remain offshore, but some convection
could bleed over and maintain itself over the immediate coastal
areas from Onslow County towards Hatteras Island, as indicated
by HREF probs of 500 J/kg CAPE confined to this area. Severe
threat is marginal as axis of highest instability is largely
divorced from axis of highest helicity. Still, with effective
shear of 35-40 kt and looping low-level hodographs cannot
completely rule out a risk of a damaging wind gust or brief
spin-up drifting onshore. Otherwise, main threat from convection
will be heavy rainfall. This should be largely beneficial given
our recent drought, but urban sites and areas typically
vulnerable to quick ponding of water may see some minor
flooding.

Lows in the mid 30s will occur around midnight with temps
steadily arising ahead of the approaching low.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...

Key Messages...

 - Ongoing rain in the morning will taper off mid to late
   afternoon

Rainfall will be ongoing at sunrise tomorrow morning with
ongoing WAA and surface low rapidly lifts northwards towards New
England. Convective threat window likely to end around midday as
effective shear and low level SRH collapses. Rainfall will end
from west to east, likely clearing the Outer Banks by sunset
Tuesday. Storm total rainfall ranges from 1-1.5" inland to
around 2" along the coast, although probability of exceeding 2"
is as high as 45-50% for the Outer Banks. Wide spread in
temperatures tomorrow, ranging from upper 60s along coastal
areas to only low to mid 50s west of Highway 17.

Gradient winds associated with the low will churn up seas,
posing a rough surf threat mainly between Cape Hatteras and Cape
Lookout and threaten dune structures along Highway 12 - see
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for details.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal
   temperatures Wednesday and Thursday

 - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region
   late in the week.

PoPs will quickly drop off as the low pulls away from the coast,
leaving the area dry Tuesday night as high pressure builds back
in and strong CAA develops. Temps will then tank, ranging from
the upper 20s across the coastal plain to low 40s along the
Outer Banks. High pressure will keep things cool and dry through
Thursday with highs rebounding to the mid 50s.

PoPs will increase on Friday as a northern stream shortwave digs
into the Plains and a low lifts along the southeast coast. With
inland temps near freezing Friday morning, there`s potential for
a brief window of a rain/snow mix. Latest trends as of early
Friday afternoon appear to be leaning towards a slightly slower
and weaker late week system. Uncertainty still remains
regarding how close to shore the low will track, but trends will
continue to be monitored. In particular, PoPs may need to be
adjusted downward should current model trends continue.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...This afternoon, skies remain VFR with
gusty northerly winds near 20 knots as high pressure builds in.
We then pivot to deteriorating conditions Tuesday morning as a
low pressure system approaches the region, dropping ceilings to
MVFR/IFR from south to north along with increasing rainfall.
Stratiform rain expected for most terminals, but some convection
is possible for OAJ and other coastal terminals primarily after
10z. LLWS expected especially for coastal plain sites as low
lifts across the FA, rapidly shifting from SE to W through the
afternoon at 35-40 kt.

Outlook: High pressure builds back into the area Wednesday and
Thursday with pred VFR conditions expected. Another system
Friday may bring drops to sub-VFR again.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM Monday...

Key Messages...

 - Gale Warning in effect from Oregon Inlet to Surf City Tuesday
   morning and afternoon; SCA for Pamlico Sound and northern
   offshore waters

Current observations depict persistent north to northeasterly
winds across area waters at 15-20 kt with gusts of 25-30 kt over
the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Seas have refused to lay down
today, still at 6-7 feet for all zones.

Forecast calls for further deteriorating conditions early
tomorrow morning extending into Wednesday as deepening coastal
low lifts northward across eastern NC. Pressure gradient between
the low and stubborn wedge of high pressure inland will result
in a brief but high confidence period of Gales over the western
wall of the Gulf Stream, and a Warning has been hoisted for
these zones starting at 13z tomorrow. Elsewhere, rapidly cooling
nearshore and soundside waters will greatly hamper gust
potential, with SCA most likely across central and eastern
portions of Pamlico Sound, as well as the Croatan/Roanoke sounds.

Outside of the Gale warnings, SCA for northern waters is being
extended through Wed morning. There will be a brief period of
sub-6 foot seas during the overnight before increasing winds
push them back up after sunrise. Pamlico Sound will also see a
lull overnight before conditions deteriorate in the morning in
tandem with the offshore Gale surge. Another brief lull is
likely in the afternoon before winds increase again out of the
northwest behind the low.

Outlook: SCA likely ongoing for most waters Tues night as winds
veer northwesterly behind the departing low before diminishing
Wed morning. weekend as another low is forecast to move up the
coast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM Monday...A strong low pressure system moving
through North Carolina tomorrow will bring elevated winds and
seas. This comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2)
through Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune
structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor
coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening`s and early
Wednesday morning`s high tides. Current expectations are that
cool nearshore waters should help confine strongest winds to
several miles offshore limiting more impactful rises. However,
developing rough surf could result in some overwash issues in
areas with known dune vulnerabilities, especially for Ocracoke
Island.

A High Surf Advisory has been issued Tuesday 10AM to 10 PM as
breaking waves of 6-9 ft could cause hazardous surf conditions
and localized beach erosion between Cape Hatteras and Cape
Lookout.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for NCZ196-
     204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from 8 AM to 3 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...OJC/ZC
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS/OJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX