638
FXUS62 KMHX 120735
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
235 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming trend through the week with high pressure in control.
A frontal system will approach the area late weekend and early
next week, bringing the next rain chances to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 235 AM Wed...Latest analysis shows 1027mb high pressure
centered over the SE US, with shortwave moving through the Mid-
Atlantic. High pressure will remain centered over the SE US
today. Increasing SW flow and building heights will allow for
much warmer temps, still below normal, with highs climbing into
the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Wed...A mid level shortwave pushes across the Mid-
Atlantic tonight with an attendant sfc trough/front pushing
through the area. The airmass remains very dry and don`t expect
much in the way of clouds, let alone precip, with this system.
Westerly breeze should keep temps more mild than the past
several nights with lows falling into the upper 30s to low 40s
inland and mid/upper 40s for the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 AM Wed...High pressure will remain in control through
the first part of the weekend, with a front approaching late
weekend and early next week. Deep westerly downslope flow ahead
of the ridge sliding across Sern CONUS will bring a grad
warming trend into the weekend. Highs in the upper 50s to low
60s Thu, warming into the 70s by Sunday as high pressure slides
offshore and SW flow develops. The next front will approach the
area late next weekend and early next week. Still some uncertainty
with the overall pattern, but may see a slight increase in rain
chances and temps near climo.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 0100 Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Gusty winds (20-25kt) today
 - Two windows of LLWS impacts expected, first in the early
   morning hours, second the first half of tonight

VFR flight cats through the TAF period. Light SWerly winds
overnight with a low end chance some sheltered spots completely
decouple. Strong winds above the nocturnal inversion lead to
LLWS concerns for all TAF sites from around 09z-14z. SWerly
winds strengthen to 10-15G20+kt midday as a mid level shortwave
passes across the region. Winds will eventually ease Wed
evening closer to sunset as shortwave pushes out to sea and the
pressure gradient relaxes. Second window of LLWS for all TAF
sites after sunset tonight with SFC winds calming but winds
just above the inversion around FL020 remaining 35-40kt whilst
veering from W to NW.

Outlook: The risk of significant aviation impacts appears low
beyond Wednesday. VFR prevails into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 AM Wed...

Key Messages

 - Small Craft Advisories continue for the coastal waters and
   sounds into tonight and Thursday

Latest obs show W winds 15-25 kt and seas 3-6 ft. High pressure
will remain in control today, with a dry front moving through
the waters tonight and early Thu. WSW winds will increase to
20-25 kt gusting 25-30 kt with seas building to 5-8 ft. Probs
still look low for gale force gusts near the Gulf Stream. Winds
and seas finally begin to relax Thursday 10-20 kt as high
pressure builds over SECONUS eventually sliding off the coast
first half of the weekend. Better boating conditions expected
Friday with NW winds 5-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. Moderate NW winds
10-20 kt expected Sat with seas 2-4 ft. Gradient will tighten
Sunday ahead of the next approaching front, with SW winds
increasing to 15-25 kt with seas building to 5-8 ft. SCA
conditions likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 0200 Wednesday...

Elevated fire weather concerns continue through Wednesday due to
dry and breezy conditions.

SWerly winds start out light this morning but strengthen during
peak heating to 10-14G20kt. The SWerly flow will allow Tds to
rise 10-15deg higher than yesterday. However, MinRHs will still
bottom out in the upper 20%s. Additionally, another round of
freezing temperatures this morning will further dry ground
fuels. With that said, the peak winds and MinRHs are forecast to
be relatively short lived, especially compared to TUE. Because
of this, in collaboration with the NCFS and neighboring offices,
have decided to not go with any fire Wx headlines for today.

Dry conditions continue for much of the week with MinRHs in
the low to mid 30%s, but winds are forecast to be markedly
weaker with ridging expanding over SECONUS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ131.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ135-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ230-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CQD
FIRE WEATHER...MHX