860
FXUS62 KMHX 281924
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
224 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead tonight before pushing
offshore on Saturday night with the approach of a cold front. A
coastal trough will also set up on Sunday as the high moves
offshore. The cold front then moves through Sunday night. This
will be followed by a notable coastal low impacting the area
Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure then briefly returns by
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

Key Messages

 - The coldest air of the season will remain in place through
   Saturday

Clear skies, a steady northwest breeze, and cold temps are
noted across ENC this afternoon as high pressure continues to
work its way into the area. This has resulted in temps getting
into the 40s across the region this afternoon and we should
begin to quickly cool down as we near sunset.

As we get into tonight, high pressure builds overhead allowing
for clear skies and light to calm winds across the region. This
will bring a great radiational cooling setup to the Mid-Atlantic.
With dewpoints only getting into the teens to low 20s across
ENC this afternoon, temps are forecast to crater once the winds
ease up under the clear skies tonight. Have gone lower than
most guidance given this, with lows in the 20s inland and low
30s noted along the OBX. While there could be some high cirrus
trying to sneak into the area near daybreak think the high
cirrus will be thin enough to not have much of an impact on
temps tonight. Will note there is a chance the more sheltered
locations get into the upper teens, especially if we decouple
sooner.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

High pressure gradually shifts offshore Sat into Sat night with
a coastal trough setting up across the offshore waters overnight
Sat. This should turn the winds to a NE`rly direction. Temps may
moderate some on Sat as low level thicknesses increase slightly.
Either way, temps wont be too much warmer tomorrow but could
see temps near 50 inland and get into the lower 50s across
Hatteras. The coldest spot may actually be across the NOBX where
NE flow will act to limit temps with highs potentially only
getting into the mid 40s. As we get into Sat night, increasing
cloud cover and winds eventually turning to the SE as a coastal
trough moves inland should allow for a slow but steady warming
trend overnight after about midnight, so Sat nights low will
likely occur just after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 AM Friday...

Key Messages

 - Growing signal for a notable coastal low to impact ENC early
   next week

An active weather pattern appears to be shaping up from late
this weekend through the upcoming work week. During this time,
upper level troughing is forecast to develop across the central
U.S., with southwesterly flow developing aloft across the
southern U.S. At the SFC, a notably strong area of low pressure
is forecast to develop along the Gulf Coast this weekend, then
lift NE through the Southeastern U.S. early next week. More on
that momentarily.

Prior to the coastal low, a separate coastal trough is forecast
to develop off the ENC coast Saturday night and move inland on
Sunday. A cold front is then forecast to sweep SE through the
area Sunday night. Increasing low-mid level moisture
overspreading the increased forcing with the developing coastal
trough looks to support a quick round of light rain Sunday
evening-Monday morning.

Attention then turns to the above-mentioned SFC low that is
forecast to track NE out of the Gulf Coast States. The majority
of guidance now depicts low pressure taking on an inland track
as it moves through the Carolinas and up into the Mid-Atlantic.
Also noteworthy is that the majority of deterministic guidance
have trended deeper with this low, now suggesting a 1000-1005mb
low as it moves through ENC. While the signal is growing
stronger for a deeper system, not all guidance is quite bought
in yet. Namely, ensemble and machine learning guidance, which
have a weaker system. All that to say that a strong coastal low
appears increasingly likely, but there remains some uncertainty
with the track and intensity.

In light of all that, the most likely scenario at this point is
for a coastal low to pass inland across ENC, putting our area
on the "warmer" side of the system. Not only does this lower the
risk of any wintry weather, it also opens the door for some
instability to edge closer to the area. The potential for some
convective elements, plus a plume of anomalous moisture and
strong forcing, appears supportive of a period of moderate to
heavy rain along the track of the low. Case in point, ensemble
guidance now shows a stronger signal for 1"+ of rain.
Additionally, various forecast aids like NAEFS and ECMWF`s EFI
also show a notable signal for heavy rain. The rain is much
needed as a large portion of ENC remains in a moderate drought.
Given the recent dry conditions, the area should be able to
handle 1-2", or more, of rain. However, some minor nuisance
flooding cannot be ruled out for areas that see higher rainfall
totals and/or higher rates (where convection occurs).

For coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, we`ll have to
closely monitor the potential for oceanside and soundside
impacts due to the potential for strong winds, large waves, and
a higher tide cycle.

High pressure briefly builds in towards the middle of the week,
but this may be short-lived as yet another coastal low may
impact the area towards the end of next week.

Temperatures look to be mild on Sunday as southerly flow
develops across the area. Temps fall back down on Monday in the
wake of Sunday night`s cold front. Temperatures then bounce back
up on Tuesday (assuming an inland low track). Temperatures then
level back off on the cooler side in the wake of the departing
low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Friday...

High confidence in VFR conditions through the period as cold
high pressure builds over terminals from the south and west.
Main aviation concern will be gusty northwesterly winds the rest
of this afternoon as pressure gradient remains pinched between
building high pressure and expansive low pressure over eastern
Canada, but this will become calm after sunset as high becomes
dominant.

Airmass likely too dry to support any fog outside of very
shallow patches in well sheltered areas. Modest uptick in high
clouds tomorrow morning with winds veering northeasterly at 5 kt
or less.

Outlook: The high moves offshore Saturday night with precip
chances increasing later on Sun as next cold front approaches,
and along with it a chance for subVFR cond developing. Coastal
low expected to bring rain to the area Tuesday, subVFR flight
cats probable.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM Friday...

Key Messages

 - SCA in effect for all offshore waters north of Cape Lookout
   into this evening

 - Deteriorating marine conditions likely early next week with
   an increasing threat of Gales

Steady NW to W breeze is noted across our waters this afternoon
with widespread 10-20 kt winds and gusts up around 20-25 kts.
Seas along our coastal waters are around 4-6 ft. With winds
easing the SCA`s across our inland waters have been allowed to
expire with SCA`s remaining up along the coastal waters north of
Cape Lookout. Winds and seas should quickly ease over the next
few hours with winds falling to about 10-15 kts with gusts up
around 20 kts tonight while becoming more N`rly as high pressure
ridging builds overhead. Seas along our coastal waters should
also fall to 2-4 ft. This will allow the remaining SCA`s to
fall off with more benign boating conditions expected through
Saturday. Winds become NE`rly at 5-10 kts by Sat afternoon as
high pressure ridge begins to shift offshore while seas lower to
2-3 ft. Winds eventually become SE`rly across our waters
overnight Sat into Sun as a coastal trough sets up bringing a
risk for some isolated showers to our waters while seas continue
to remain around 2-3 ft.

Outlook: The primary focus next week will be the increasing
signal for a notably strong coastal low to impact the ENC waters
Monday night through Tuesday. Most guidance have trended
stronger with this low, and our forecast now shows a period of
gale-force winds for much of the coastal waters, and widespread
25kt winds elsewhere. It should be noted that on the higher end
of guidance, high end gale to storm force winds are within the
realm of possibility, especially over the warmer waters adjacent
to the Gulf Stream. This should also support building, and
impactful, seas. Mariners are encouraged to stay tuned for
updates through the weekend regarding this system.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1245 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

 - Fire weather concerns remain through late afternoon with
   gusty winds and low relative humidities.

Eastern NC has been experiencing Moderate to locally Severe
drought conditions with a long duration of little to no
rainfall. Dry air remains as Tds fall well into the 10s and RHs
dip into the 25-30% range. In addition, wind gusts will be near
20mph today with isolated higher gusts to 25 mph. Considering
the drought conditions and decreasing greenery as the fall
season progresses, fire weather concerns remain marginally
elevated the rest of today.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150-
     152-154-156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RM/RCF
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...RM/RCF
FIRE WEATHER...MHX