600
FXUS62 KMHX 141121
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
621 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through Saturday, pushing
off the coast Sunday. A dry cold front will move through late
Sunday, with another front impacting the area mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 155 AM Fri...High pressure will continue to build over
the Carolinas today, giving way to a very quiet/pleasant fall
day. Low level thickness values and sunny skies support highs in
the upper 50s to low 60s along the Outer Banks and low to mid
60s inland. With dewpoints in the 20s-30s, Min RH values will
fall to 25-35% inland this afternoon, though light winds should
lessen fire danger concerns compared to the past several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 155 AM Fri...High pressure remains in control overnight
with mild WSW winds. Wind and a slight uptick in clouds will
keep temps milder than the past few nights with lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 AM Fri...

Saturday and Sunday...The warming trend will continue through
the weekend with highs climbing into the upper-60s to low-70s
on Saturday and low-to mid-70s on Sunday. A dry cold front is
progged to push through the area later Sunday, but the only
impact to sensible weather will be breezy winds and cooler
overnight lows back into the mid-40s to low-50s.

Monday-Thursday...High pressure returns early next week with
troughing aloft, and temps near climo returning. The next front
will impact the area Tuesday night, bringing only slight rain
chances to the area. Below normal temps return for Wed and Thu
with post frontal N-NE flow. A stronger frontal system may
impact the area late week into early next weekend, though still
some timing differences this far out in time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 620 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Light winds and VFR conditions through Friday

 - Potential for LLWS concerns after midnight tonight

VFR conditions expected to persist through the TAF period with high
pressure over the region. Light and variable winds under clear
skies expected today. Winds will remain light tonight as the
gradient pinches slightly, precluding any fog risk. However,
there is potential for some LLWS concerns after midnight
tonight, especially across the northern half of the forecast
area. Have not yet included this in TAFs, but a mention may be
needed in later cycles. Cloud cover is expected to increase
later tonight as well, but clouds will remain well above sub-
VFR thresholds.

Outlook: VFR prevails into the weekend with dry high pressure over
the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 155 AM Fri...

Key Messages
- SCA conditions likely Saturday night into Sunday night/early
  Monday

Latest obs show W-NW winds at 5-15 kt and seas 2-3 ft. Moderate
NNW surge 10-20 kt expected early this morning, with winds grad
backing and easing mid morning and through the day. W winds will
increase to 10-20 kt gusting 20-25 kt early Sat morning then
easing a bit during the day, before increasing again Saturday
evening. Brief SCA conditions possible across the central waters
Sat morning. SW winds will peak at 20-30 kt Sat night into the
first part of Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Gale
force wind gusts will be possible across the outer waters near
the Gulf Stream with seas building to 5-10 ft (highest south of
Hatteras). Conditions will be slowly improving across the waters
Monday with moderate NNW winds. Another front will approach the
waters Tue.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD/OJC
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...CQD