277
FXUS62 KMHX 021151
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
651 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will move across the Carolina
coast today. High pressure then rebuilds into the area from the
north through midweek before another low pressure system
impacts the region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

 - Rain chances increasing through tomorrow morning, with locally
   heavy rainfall possible

 - A few thunderstorms possible with the greatest chance for a stronger
   storm stretching from Onslow Counter to Cape Hatteras and
   offshore

Rest of tonight through early Tuesday: Latest surface analysis
shows that the surface low has formed off the FL/GA coast. Light
showers are ongoing across southern zones and PoPs will ramp up
over the next few hours as the low deepens and moves up the
southeast coast. Heavy rain is possible at times with PWATs in
the 95th percentile of climatology (1.5- 1.75"). Convection
developing over the warmer Gulf Stream waters will drift towards
the coast later tonight/early Tuesday morning, but instability
will be meager and therefore limit thunder chances over land.

Tuesday: Instability will be on the rise as the sun comes up and
the low moves up our coast, increasing chances for convection.
While the bulk of convection is expected to remain offshore,
deep layer shear will be plentiful and HREF instability probs
show a swath of >500 SBCAPE stretched between roughly Onslow
County and Hatteras Island. Thankfully, the area of highest CAPE
is separated from the highest SRH, but winds will still be
backed at the surface this morning, raising concern for damaging
wind gusts and quick spin-ups or waterspouts that could move
onshore. Outside of the convective threat, the main concern with
this coastal low will be the heavy rainfall, which is much
needed considering the ongoing abnormally dry to moderate
drought conditions across ENC. Storm total rainfall ranges from
1-1.5" inland to 1.5-2" along the coast with high end amounts
(10% chance) around 3" for the Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret
County. Urban and poor drainage areas may see some nuisance
flooding, but this rain will be largely beneficial to the
region. A large temperature gradient will develop today with
highs ranging from the low 50s across the coastal plain to the
mid to upper 60s along the coast. PoPs will quickly dissipate
from west to east as the low pulls away from our coast later
this afternoon/early this evening with the entire FA expected to
be precip free by around sunset.

Strong winds associated with this low will create rough surf
conditions, mainly between Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout, and
will threaten dune structures along Highway 12. See the TIDES/COASTAL
FLOODING section for details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages..

 - Dry and cool

As the low pulls away from the coast, high pressure will build back
in and strong CAA will develop. Temps will then tank, ranging
from the upper 20s to low 30s across the coastal plain and mid
30s to low 40s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal
   temperatures Wednesday and Thursday

 - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region
   late in the week

High pressure will keep things cool and dry through Thursday
with highs rebounding to the mid 50s.

An unsettled period will start Friday and linger through early
Sunday as another low lifts along the southeast coast and a
series of shortwaves move through aloft. Uncertainty still
remains regarding how close to shore the low will track, but
trends will continue to be monitored. At this time, highest PoPs
are Friday night and into early Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM Tuesday...Low pressure has developed off the
Southeast coast this morning and will track along the coast
today. Cigs will continue to lower through the morning hours
with sub- VFR conditions and rain spreading over the area.
Thunder threat will largely remain offshore, but an errant storm
approaching coastal terminals is not out of the question today.
Given the low probability, decided to not include VCTS in TAFs
at this point. Strengthening low level jet is also expected
after 11z with LLWS concerns through the morning hours. The low
is expected to lift away from the area through the afternoon
with precip beginning to taper off from W to E however IFR/LIFR
conditions expected to linger through 22Z, after which skies
start to break up.

Outlook: High pressure builds back into the area Wednesday and
Thursday with pred VFR conditions expected. Another system
Friday and Saturday may bring sub-VFR conditions again.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1:00 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

 - Gale Warning in effect from Oregon Inlet to Surf City through
   this afternoon

 - SCA for Pamlico Sound, Croatan and Roanoke Sounds, and
   northern waters

Conditions will deteriorate through the afternoon as low moves
up the coast. Winds will ramp up as they veer from easterly
early this morning to southerly by this afternoon, gusts peaking
at 25-30 kt across the northern waters and 35-40 kt to the
south (highest near the Gulf Stream). A Gale Warning is in
effect for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet starting at
8 AM this morning. The coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet, the
Pamlico Sound, and the Croatan and Roanoke Sounds have SCAs.

Seas will peak this afternoon by building to 7-10 ft south of
Cape Hatteras, 6-9 ft between Oregon Inlet and Cape Hatteras,
and 5-7 ft across the northern waters. All waters are forecast
to be sub-6 ft by Wednesday morning.

Outlook: The current forecast should keep all waters headline
free through the weekend, although a brief period of
northeasterly 20-25 kt gusts will be possible late
Thursday/early Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1 AM Tuesday...A strong low pressure system moving
through North Carolina today will bring elevated winds and
seas. This comes as we enter a king tide cycle today (12/2)
through Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune
structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor
coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening`s and early
Wednesday morning`s high tides. Current expectations are that
cool nearshore waters should help confine strongest winds to
several miles offshore limiting more impactful rises. However,
developing rough surf could result in some overwash issues in
areas with known dune vulnerabilities, especially for Ocracoke
Island.

A High Surf Advisory has been issued Tuesday 10AM to 10 PM as
breaking waves of 6-9 ft could cause hazardous surf conditions
and localized beach erosion between Cape Hatteras and Cape
Lookout.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ135-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...OJC/ZC
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...OJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX