638
FXUS62 KMHX 251909
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
209 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across ENC tonight bringing
precipitation to the area. On Wednesday and Wednesday night a
cold front then sweeps east across the area putting an end to
unsettled conditions, though breezy NW`rly winds are expected
behind this front. Large high pressure then builds in from the
west with below avg temperatures forecast from Thanksgiving on
into the weekend as reinforcing shots of cold air infiltrate
the region. Next potential frontal system impacts the area late
this weekend into early next week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Above normal temperatures expected through Wednesday

A warm November day today as highs have gotten into the mid 60s
along the NOBX to the mid 70s inland with latest satellite imagery
showing partly to mostly cloudy skies across ENC this
afternoon. Leftover showers from this morning have since
dissipated as the aforementioned coastal trough has dissipated.

As we get into tonight, deepening upper level trough over the Upper
Midwest will push east into the Great Lakes while a Jet Streak
sets up across the Mid-Atlantic tonight. At the same time weak
mid level shortwave is forecast to overspread the region while
at the surface developing warm front which is currently noted to
our south and west across GA/SC will continue to lift N`wrds tracking
across ENC after sunset. The combination of the glancing wave,
increased convergence along the warm front, modest WAA, and
increased moisture advection should support increased cloud
cover and a quick round of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from this evening into tonight. The greatest
chance of showers looks to be focused along the coast where low-
level convergence is maximized. While weak instability across
ENC may support a few thunderstorms tonight, the lack of
stronger lift and instability should limit any severe
thunderstorm risk. Given the ample cloud cover don`t expect to
cool off much tonight as lows get into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 2 PM Tuesday...Neutrally tilted upper level trough over the
Great Lakes on Wed will continue to push east becoming centered
across the Eastern Seaboard overnight Wed. Will have another weak
shortwave track across the region Wed afternoon in association with a
surface cold front, however the strongest forcing will likely be
displaced to the north and west closer to the parent surface low and
upper level troughing. At the surface, ENC will remain warm
sectored through much of Wednesday out ahead of an approaching
cold front. This will keep southerly flow and building low
level thicknesses in place supporting highs in the 70s across
ENC which is well above normal for this time of year. A
tightening pressure gradient plus shallow mixing into the lower
reaches of a strong SW LLJ should lead to breezy conditions for
much of the area. Along the immediate coast from Cape Lookout to
Cape Hatteras, occasional gusts of 35-40+ mph appears
plausible.

While relatively deep moisture will be in place across ENC through
the day on Wed with PWATs generally remaining around 1.0-1.5 inches,
and instability generally around 500 J/kg which normally would
support some scattered thunderstorms across the region, given the
lack of forcing with the strongest forcing remaining to the
north and west, still only expecting isolated showers and
thunderstorms across ENC through the day Wednesday. However,
will note much of the day could be dry overall and with weaker
instability noted will likely not see stronger storms. This then
likely results in little in the way of appreciable rainfall
across ENC through the day which could setup elevated fire
conditions later in the week, especially with how dry it has
been over the past few weeks.

Aforementioned cold front quickly sweeps across ENC overnight Wed
ending any precip threat. But this will bring clearing skies
and CAA across ENC Wed night. With this in mind, low temps will
likely crater after midnight and will be about 15-20 degrees
colder than Tue nights lows with widespread upper 30s to low
40s noted inland Thurs morning and mid 40s noted along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Cold and dry conditions expected on Thanksgiving

A much colder, and very dry, post-frontal airmass will settle
into the Carolinas over the Thanksgiving holiday. Sprawling high
pressure overhead should setup a couple of nights of excellent
radiational cooling conditions, supporting below to well below
normal temperatures. The coldest night is expected to be Friday
night, with lows falling into the 20s inland, and 30s along the
coast. Of note, guidance has trended colder during the Thursday
- Saturday period, and the forecast reflects this trend.

Late in the weekend and into early next week, the cold airmass
is forecast to shift away from the area as deep southerly flow
redevelops ahead of a positively-tilted upper trough over the
western/central U.S. This type of upper level pattern often
favors significant differences among deterministic guidance.
Therefore, confidence is lower regarding how quickly moisture
and rainfall chances will increase. For now, the forecast will
reflect warming temperatures with a modest chance of showers.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - A chance for sub-VFR conditions tonight and Wednesday with
   increasing moisture and showers ahead of a cold front.

 - LLWS possible late tonight into Wednesday morning.

Moist southerly flow will continue ahead of a cold front through
the TAF period. Pred VFR across rtes this afternoon but precip
chances increase overnight and Wednesday bringing the potential
for sub-VFR conditions, especially in heavier showers and
thunderstorms. Guidance indicating the best chance (60-80%) for
sub-VFR conditions will be after midnight tonight through around
daybreak with low stratus and light fog possible. Conditions are
also favorable for sea fog development tonight and Wednesday
morning that could impact terminals along the immediate coast
but will not impact the TAF sites. Also, a strengthening low
level jet overnight will bring the potential for LLWS concerns
late tonight into Wednesday morning, mainly 9-13z. S to SW winds
will gust to around 20 kt this afternoon and to around 25 kt
late Wednesday morning and afternoon.

Outlook: A cold front will push across rtes Wednesday night
bringing clearing skies and pred VFR conditions that will
continue through the remainder of the week as high pressure
builds across the area. The high moves offshore Saturday night
with precip chances increasing on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Increased risk of elevated winds and seas from Tuesday night
   through Friday

 - Small Craft Advisory now in effect for portions of the
   coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound

 - Gale watch now in effect for portions of the Coastal Waters
   between Wed afternoon and Thursday morning

 - Thunderstorms possible tonight

While coastal showers along the Crystal Coast have ended with
the previously mentioned coastal trough dissipating, latest obs
across our waters show widespread S`rly winds at 10-20 kts with
seas along our coastal waters remaining around 2-4 ft. Do
expect marine conditions to worsen tonight across portions of
our coastal waters with gusts up to 25 kts expected across the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. As a result have kept
SCA`s up across these waters starting tonight. Slightly lighter
winds will be noted elsewhere given cooler water temps with
gusts up to 15-20 kts expected. As we get into tonight warm
front will lift north across the region veering winds slightly
to a SW`rly direction. The southerly flow then builds further on
Wed and Wed evening as the gradient tightens ahead of an
approaching cold front. Latest trends suggest while coastal
waters north of Oregon Inlet and inland waters will see winds
around 10-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts, the coastal waters
along the Gulf Stream could see a gusts as high as 30-35+ kt Wed
afternoon and overnight. Given the continued signal with
ECWMF/HREF probs of gale force gusts generally around 40-70%
across these waters and RRFS wind gusts noted around 35 kts
across these waters elected to go with a gale watch starting
around 3PM Wed and going into early Thurs morning from Surf City
up to Oregon Inlet. Will note chances of seeing gale force
gusts will likely be relegated to the coastal waters 10+ NM out
along the Gulf Stream but the threat is there. Even if the
recent trend backs off, strong small craft advisory S`rly winds
are expected. Have also added a SCA across the larger Pamlico
Sound where gusts up to 25 kts will be possible Wed afternoon.
For now, these headlines will just be focused on the pre-frontal
southerly winds and elevated seas. Additional marine headlines
may be needed for the post-frontal northerly winds later in the
week.

Seas of 2-4ft this afternoon are expected to build to 3-6ft
tonight, then further build to 4-7ft on Wednesday. The highest
seas are expected from Cape Hatteras south.

As a warm front lifts north through the area tonight, there
will be a modest risk of thunderstorms, mainly over the central
and southern coastal waters and the eastern Pamlico Sound.

Lastly, warm and moist air overspreading the cooler shelf
waters may lead to a period of marine fog impacts this evening
and tonight before the strongest winds arrive.

Outlook: A post-frontal surge of northwesterly winds is
expected late Thursday into Friday, with a period of 20-30kt
wind gusts expected for most, if not all, waters. Later Friday
through Saturday, high pressure is forecast to build in with
winds and seas laying down.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 2 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages:

-Fire weather concerns Thursday and Friday

Eastern NC has been experiencing Moderate to locally Severe
drought conditions with a long duration of little to no
rainfall. While rain chances exist late Tuesday into Wednesday
morning, current forecast rainfall totals will do little to
improve the drought conditions on a large scale. Behind the cold
front Wednesday, dry air ushers into the region, allowing
relative humidities to drop below 35% while wind gusts reach
near 20 mph during the day. Considering the drought conditions
and decreasing greenery as the fall season progresses, we will
see an increased potential for fire weather concerns. As high-
resolution guidance becomes available for Thursday and Friday,
we will have a better idea on how strong winds will truly be and
how dry the airmass is behind the cold front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST
     Wednesday for AMZ152-154-156-158.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening
     for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...RM/RCF
FIRE WEATHER...MHX