835
FXUS62 KMHX 291228
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
728 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues overhead today and then slides offshore
tonight. A weak warm front will move north through ENC Sunday
morning before a cold front crosses in the evening. Behind this
system high pressure will briefly build in from the north
Monday, with a stronger low pressure system expected to move
across the Carolinas Tuesday. High pressure then rebuilds into
the area from the north through midweek before another low
pressure system impacts the region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sat...

Key Messages...

- Well below normal conditions continue with highs only in the
  upper 40s to low 50s


Cold high pressure will continue over the area through today.
After a frosty and cold start this morning, with temps in the
low to mid 20s, we will be slow to warm with still well below
normal heights over the region. Highs will only reach the upper
40s to low 50s, some 10-15 degrees below normal, under mostly
sunny skies and light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sat...

Key Messages...

- Cold conditions expected again tonight with lows below
  freezing inland

- Rapidly moderating conditions Sunday as a warm front lifts
  through the area with highs in the mid to upper 60s possible

- Isolated to scattered showers possible Sunday ahead of and
  along a cold front which will move through the area Sunday
  evening

Cold and dry high pressure will retreat tonight, but we will
still see good radiational cooling the first half of the night
with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s inland
and 30s closer to the coast. By early tomorrow morning a weak
warm front will lift to the southern NC coast with temperatures
rapidly rising from the 30s to the 50s or even low 60s. As the
warm front lifts through ENC Sunday morning, southerly flow
will develop boosting temps into the mid to upper 60s. A fair
amount of clouds are likely with moisture increasing, but any
locations that see breaks of sun will have the opportunity to
warm towards 70 degrees.

High res models continue to indicate the potential for a
cluster of scattered showers moving through the forecast area
during the day Sunday, likely associated with a prefrontal
trough, and have introduced some low end PoPs (15-20%) which may
need to be increased later on if this trend continues.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sat...

Key Messages

- A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday into
  Wednesday with the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and
  minor coastal flooding

- Below normal conditions continue the rest of next week, with
  the potential for another low pressure system to move through
  the Carolinas late week

An active weather pattern is shaping up early to mid next week.
During this time, upper level troughing is forecast to develop
across the central U.S., with southwesterly flow developing
aloft across the southern U.S. At the SFC, a notably strong area
of low pressure is forecast to develop along the Gulf Coast
Monday, then lift NE through the Southeastern U.S. early next
week.

The majority of guidance continues to depict low pressure
taking a "just" inland track as it moves through the Carolinas
and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Though there remains some
uncertainty with the track and intensity still, most model
solutions show the potential for Gale Force winds and heavy rain.

With this track we will be on the "warm" side of the low, but
just barely. There remains potential for some convective
elements and thunder, but this should be mostly confined to the
immediate coast and over the nearshore marine waters. A plume
of anomalous moisture and strong forcing, appears supportive of
a period of moderate to heavy rain along the track of the low.
Ensemble guidance and other forecast aids continue to show a
notable signal for heavy rain (1-2"+). The rain is much needed
as a large portion of ENC remains in a moderate drought. That
said, some minor nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out for
areas that see higher rainfall totals and/or higher rain rates.

For coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, we`ll have to
closely monitor the potential for oceanside and soundside
flooding impacts due to the potential for strong winds, large
waves, and a higher tide cycle.

High pressure briefly builds in towards the middle of the week,
but this may be short-lived as yet another coastal low may
impact the area towards the end of next week.

Temperatures fall back down below normal Monday, but bounce
back up on Tuesday. Below normal conditions then likely return
for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 720 PM Friday...High confidence in VFR flight cats
through today as cold high pressure builds over terminals from
the south and west.

High clouds in and out through the day, with VFR ceilings and
light winds. Tonight, some low clouds try to move in from the
south with increasing moisture. This could bring low end chances
for MVFR ceilings (20-30%) for EWN and OAJ before daybreak
Sunday. Have a SCT025 mention in TAFs to handle this
possibility. Further inland, drier conditions will keep ceilings
firmly in VFR to start the morning off

Outlook: Precip chances increasing Sun as warm front approaches,
and along with it a chance for subVFR cond developing. Low
pressure system working up the Carolina coast expected to bring
rain to the area Tuesday, subVFR flight cats expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 AM Sat...

Key Messages...

- Small Craft conditions likely develop Sunday night behind a
  cold front through most of Monday

- Increasing potential for Gale Force winds Tuesday as a strong
  low pressure system moves over the Carolinas

- Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into
  Wednesday

With high pressure centered over the southern Mid-Atlantic,
northerly winds at 10-20 kts will persist over ENC the rest of
the morning. Winds subside to NE 5-15 kts this afternoon as the
high moves nearly overhead. Winds will veer tonight as a weak
warm front moves through the waters by early tomorrow morning
with winds becoming S at 5-15 kts. Southerly winds increase to
10-20 kts Sunday afternoon, and then switch to the NW Sunday
night behind a cold front. Winds strengthen to NNW 15-25 kts
with gusts to 30 kts overnight into Monday morning.

Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft this morning, and then subside to 2-3
ft through tomorrow evening. Seas will quickly respond to
increasing winds Sunday night building to 4-6 ft by sunrise.

Outlook: Improving conditions expected the rest of Monday, but
this will be short lived as a strong low pressure system is
expected to move through the coastal waters Tuesday. There is
potential for Gale Force winds across much of the coastal
waters, with the exact strength of the winds (and wind
direction) still to be worked out. Hazardous marine conditions
will continue for some time behind this system through
Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Sat...A strong low pressure system moving through
North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and seas. This
comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2) through
Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune
structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see
minor coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening`s and
early Wednesday morning`s high tides. The forecast magnitude and
direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the
eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as
a result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity
are still unclear at this time.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RM/SGK
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...SGK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX