649
FXUS62 KMHX 092000
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep east across the area late tonight, with
a reinforcing arctic front following Monday night. High
pressure then returns for the middle to latter half of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Front enters the FA from the W around
midnight with nearly meridional flow from midlevel up as upper
low digs S across Great Lakes and Indiana, pushing upward leg of
trough aloft across the wrn half of NC through the overnight.
Convective precip is expected ahead of the boundary as it races
across the FA. Some instability will remain from this
afternoon`s heating and the ample speed and directional sheer
will keep a chance of more organized cells to carry some threat
of damaging wind gusts with a lower, but non-zero threat, of
hail. Temp gradient will be tight behind the front with burst of
initial CAA leading to temps cooling into the 45-50 range over
the Coastal Plain in the early morning hours, 50-55 coast.
Precip wanes from W to E in the early morning hours, but not
directly behind the front as moisture still streaming in from
the S above the frontal inversion will lead to some stratiform
rain expected behind the front through around sunrise on the OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Transition day in store as intial front that
passes tonight brings cooler air into the region. Thicknesses
support max T`s in the mid 50s interior, to close to 60 coast,
or about 10 degrees below climo. Skies start out partly to
mostly cloudy, but rapid clearing on downsloping arridifying air
off the Appalachians throughout the day expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...

Key Messages

 - The coldest air of the season arrives Monday night into
   Tuesday.

 - Freeze warning now in effect for most of Mainland ENC, with
   watches continuing near coast.

 - Scattered non-accumulating light snow or flurries possible
   late Mon night.

Mon Night...Reinforcing arctic cold front moves through Mon
night. With this arctic wind surge, gusty winds and plummeting
temps expected. A good chance for a freeze for much of inland
ENC, with upper 20s to lower 30s expected. Closer to the Crystal
coast and other coastal zones, more marginal temps expected. A
strong breeze will prevent radational cooling, but either way,
areas that don`t get a freeze will feel like theyre well below
freezing due to the gusty nwrly breezes.

Other than the cold, beneath the upper low which, in
conjunction with a stout embedded midlevel shortwave traversing
the region, may support brief ra/sn to light snow or snow
showers/flurries. Have cont 20-30% pops, highest along the Hwy
64 corridor, where a light dusting on grassy areas may occur.
Certainly no accums on roads and therefore just mentioning
novelty flakes in the fcst. Elsewhere, some snow flurries may
make it to the ground all the way to the Crystal Coast.

Tuesday-Tuesday Night...Thicknesses/hts bottom out on Tue, with
highs only in the 40s area-wide, some 20 degrees below climo.
Some question on how quickly return flow can develop on Tue
night. There is a window for the coldest night of the season to
fall along the mainland coastal zones if winds can stay calm to
light. Have lows around freezing for the Crystal Coast through
Mainland Dare. If winds pick up too quickly, as they are
expected to gradually inc out of the sw with swrly gradient
picking up, a freeze here could be prevented.

Wednesday through Sunday...High pressure remains centered
across SECONUS Wednesday with southerly flow bringing warming
temperatures, but still ~5 degrees below normal with highs in
the lower 60s. A mid level shortwave pushes across the Mid-
Atlantic Wednesday night with an attendant sfc trough/front
pushing through the area, however the airmass remains very dry
and don`t expect much in the way of clouds, let alone precip,
with this system. Deep westerly downslope flow ahead of ridging
sliding across Sern CONUS will actually bring a few degrees of
warming temps on Thursday with highs expected in the mid 60s.
High pressure builds into the area Friday before sliding
offshore first half of the weekend with highs in the low to mid
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - TSRA possible this evening (20-40% chance)
 - IFR/MVFR conditions likely this evening into tonight
 - Periods of gusty winds through mid-week

Gusty southerly winds of 20-25kt will remain possible into late
this afternoon ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
Within the moist and unstable airmass ahead of the front, it`s
possible that a few TSRA will manage to develop from 17z-01z,
but the lack of stronger lift looks to keep this risk low, and I
have continued to keep TSRA out of the TAFs during this time.
Once the front arrives this evening and tonight, lift will
increase, as will the risk of SHRA and TSRA. This looks to be a
scenario where there is scattered to numerous SHRA, but only
isolated to scattered TSRA. With this TAF issuance, I`ve
introduced a PROB30 group for TSRA, with a prevailing group for
SHRA. CIGs are expected to gradually lower this evening and
tonight, with a period of IFR or MVFR CIGs expected. For now,
I`ve only got CIGs in the MVFR range, but IFR is certainly
possible. A northwesterly wind shift will occur tonight as the
front moves through, and it may be gusty at times. Drier air
moving in behind the front should put an end to the SHRA, TSRA,
and low CIG risk from west to east.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected for much of the upcoming
work week. The one exception is Monday night as a secondary cold
front moves through with the potential for a brief round of low
CIGs and SHRASN. Should any SN occur, it is expected to be brief
with no accumulations, and mainly confined from KPGV east
through KFFA. A period of gusty west winds is expected Tuesday,
followed by gusty southerly winds on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Gale watches upgraded to warnings, with SCA in
effect for the Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds and the rivers.

A cold front moves through early tomorrow morning, with swrly to
wrly breezes becoming nwrly and ocnl gusting to 25 knots, esp on
the waters. Much stronger reinforcing arctic front still on
track to move through later Mon night, with gales expected late
night into first part of Tue. Seas build as high as 6-9 ft for
the waters s of Hatteras. Winds relax a bit Tue night, but
reinforcing gradient on swrly winds expected Wed, and could see
some gales again south of C Hatteras once again.

Winds and seas finally begin to lay down by Thursday as high
pressure builds over SECONUS eventually sliding off the coast
first half of the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ029-
     044>046-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-199.
     Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for NCZ047-195-196.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Monday night to 4 PM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ131-136-137.
     Gale Warning from 2 AM to noon EST Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to noon EST Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from midnight Monday night to noon EST Tuesday
     for AMZ152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 4 PM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ230-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL/CEB
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...TL