575
FXUS62 KMHX 110708
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
208 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing arctic front will push offshore this morning.
High pressure builds into the region through late week. A
frontal system will approach the area late weekend and early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 210 AM Tue...

Key Messages

 - The coldest air of the season today. Brisk with temps well
   below normal and breezy WNW winds.

 - Freeze warning remains in effect for most of Mainland ENC.

 - Scattered non-accumulating light snow or flurries for the
   next few hours, with best chances across the northern tier.

A deep upper low will slide from the eastern Great Lakes to New
England with an Arctic airmass building into the region. A
reinforcing Arctic front will continue to push offshore this
morning as a stout embedded shortwave axis moves through the
upper low and across the region with strong CAA bringing gusty
winds and plummeting temps. Freeze Warnings continue for most
of the area, except Downeast and the Outer Banks where temps are
expected to remain in the mid to upper 30s. Wind chill values
expected to drop into the upper teens to lower 20s inland and
mid to upper 20s along the coast this morning. Radar shows
light returns, likely light snow showers/flurries, moving
through the northern tier early this morning, confirmed by
spotter reports of flurries. Strong forcing associated with the
shortwave will support a brief period of light rain/snow to
light snow showers/flurries for the next few hours, with best
chances across the northern tier. No impacts are expected as
ground temps are too warm for much in the way of accumulation,
though a light dusting on grassy areas may occur where heavier
precip rates develop, with best chance occurring along the Hwy
64 corridor. Arctic high pressure becomes centered across the
Southeast today then pushes southward ahead of another northern
stream shortwave tonight. Low level thicknesses bottom out, with
highs only in the 40s area-wide, about 20 degrees below climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Tue...

Key Messages

- Freezing temperatures will be possible again inland

High pressure will continue to build in from the south
overnight, while a dry front pushes through. Despite the clear
skies, SW-WSW breeze will limit radiational cooling, but still
expect temps to drop quickly this evening and fall into the low
to mid 30s inland and upper 30s to around 40 deg for the
beaches. If a widespread freeze does not occur this morning,
additional Freeze Warnings may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 AM Tue...High pressure remains centered across the SE
US Wednesday with southerly flow bringing warming temperatures,
but still ~5 degrees below normal with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. A mid level shortwave pushes across the Mid-
Atlantic Wednesday night with an attendant sfc trough/front
pushing through the area, however the airmass remains very dry
and don`t expect much in the way of clouds, let alone precip,
with this system. Deep westerly downslope flow ahead of ridging
sliding across Sern CONUS will actually bring a few degrees of
warming temps on Thursday with highs expected in the mid 60s.
High pressure builds into the area Friday before sliding
offshore first half of the weekend with highs in the low to mid
60s. The next front will approach the area late next weekend and
early next week, with increasing rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 0100 Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Light SN/flurries possible overnight
 - Gusty W to NW winds (20-25kt) continue into Wednesday
 - Low chance for MVFR conditions tonight (10-30% chance)

VFR flight cats persist across ENC to start the TAF period,
with a BKN to OVC cloud deck at FL060-070 slowly overspreading
the region. A reinforcing cold front will push through the
region tonight, with WNWerly winds again gusting to 20-25 kts
after the front moves through. These gusts will bring crosswind
concerns to ISO/EWN and will continue through the day TUE.
While CIGs are expected to lower for a few hours tonight as the
front pushes through, bulk of guidance continues to show VFR
prevailing, with chances generally 30% or less for subVFR. Will
continue to carry a secondary cloud group of SCT030 in the TAFs
for this chance for a few hours tonight. -SHSN or very light SN
may accompany this front as well, but the risk of subVFR VIS
continues to appear LOW (less than 30% chance). This issuance,
I have added a TEMPO MVFR for PGV, where the best chance of
seeing decreased VIS and greater than SCT cloud deck exists.
Continue prob30 groups for snow elsewhere but not expecting
more than a single ob or two to show decreased flight cats for
very short durations other than PGV, who`s TEMPO is only for
2hrs and is probably too long at that. Skies then quickly clear
around dawn today, with VFR flight cats and gusty winds persisting
through the day.

Outlook: Through the end of the week, the main aviation impact
across ENC looks to be periods of gusty winds. The strongest
wind gusts are expected through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 AM Tue...

Key Messages

 - Strong W/NW winds will continue through mid day
 - SCA conditions, possible Gales, expected again Wednesday

Latest obs show NW winds 15-25 kt across the inland waters and
20-30 kt gusting to 30-35 kt across the coastal waters and
Pamlico Sound...with seas 5-8 ft (highest south of Hatteras).
Arctic front will continue to push offshore this morning, with
strong CAA developing behind it. W-NW winds will peak at 20-30
kt gusting 25-40 kt. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal
waters and sounds with SCAs for the rivers through mid day. Seas
build as high as 6-9 ft for the waters s of Hatteras. Winds
grad relax a bit tonight, but gradients tighten again early Wed
as a dry front approaches the waters. SCA conditions expected to
return across most waters Wed and Wed night, and could see some
gale force gusts south of Cape Hatteras once again.

Winds and seas finally begin to lay down by Thursday 10-20 kt as
high pressure builds over SECONUS eventually sliding off the
coast first half of the weekend. Better boating conditions
expected Friday with NW winds 5-15 kt and seas 2-3 ft. Moderate
NNW winds 10-20 kt expected Sat with seas 2-4 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 0115 Tuesday...

Elevated fire concerns Tuesday and Wednesday due to breezy
winds and low relative humidities.

An already much drier airmass has arrived in the wake of Sunday
night`s cold front and an even drier one will fill in behind
Monday night`s reinforcing front. This dry airmass will remain
in place through much of the upcoming week, and will be
accompanied by periods of breezy northwest to west winds TUE and
southwest WED. The greatest overlap of breezy and dry
conditions is expected Tuesday and Wednesday, and this is the
period that stands out the most for potential fire weather
concerns. These two days also come after the expected freeze for
many inland locations tonight, with more rapid curing expected.
In coordination with the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger
statement has been issued for all of ENC from 10am-6pm Tuesday.

Winds become SWerly and slightly weaker WED which will improve
conditions slightly with some higher Tds increasing the daily
MinRH compared to today, but another night of MinTs around or
below freezing will further dry fuels. Potential remains for
further fireWx headlines WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 210 AM Tue...Potent cold air advection will bring strong
westerly winds to ENC this morning and persisting into the
evening before subsiding. WNW winds will increase to 25-35 mph
across the sounds. This is likely to result in minor water level
rises up to about 1 ft AGL and some soundside flooding from
Duck down to Hatteras Village with a chance for some locally
higher water levels at Roanoke Island. This threat is forecast
to continue for much of today before subsiding this evening as
high pressure gradually builds into ENC allowing for winds and
water levels to lower.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ131-
     136-137.
     Gale Warning until noon EST today for AMZ135.
     Gale Warning until noon EST today for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 2 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ230-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CQD
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX