210
FXUS62 KMHX 161853
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
153 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front moves through ENC today, bringing elevated
fire weather conditions to much of the area this afternoon.
Cooler high pressure then builds back in from the northwest
early this week, with another quick moving front pushing through
the area by mid-week. Behind this system, a warming trend will
bring increasing temperatures through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 6pm this evening
   for far NW sections of ENC (elevated fire concerns elsewhere)

 - Brief cooldown tonight into Monday night

A cold front is currently encroaching on ENC this afternoon. As
of this writing, the front was just reaching Martin and Pitt
Counties. The front will continue to push SE through the evening
hours, pushing offshore tonight. Gusty winds, a drying airmass,
and a wind shift with the front will lead to elevated to
dangerous fire conditions. Please see the Fire Weather section
for additional information.

Behind the front, strong CAA will send temperatures falling
into the upper 30s to mid 40s, which is right around, or
slightly below, normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

High pressure will build in from the west through the day
Monday, which will eventually lead to much lighter winds.
However, continued CAA and enhanced mixing during the morning
and early afternoon hours will combine with a residually modest
pressure gradient to support several hours of breezy winds from
just after sunrise through around 1-2pm. The continued CAA
behind the front will also help to keep temps down much lower
compared to today, with highs topping out in the upper 50s to
near 60. With high pressure squarely overhead Monday night,
winds are expected to be very light, setting up decent
radiational cooling conditions. Normally this type of setup
would favor going below blended guidance. However, the potential
for mid/high clouds suggests radiational cooling effects may be
tampered some. Additionally, bias-corrected blended guidance is
already below the 25th percentile of all guidance. Lows around
the 25th percentile of guidance appears reasonable in this
setup, especially given the potential for high clouds, so no
change from guidance was made. Regardless, widespread low to mid
30s appears likely. The coldest locations with limited
cloudcover could see lows fall below freezing. The areas most
likely to get close to, or below, freezing are the same counties
where the frost/freeze program has ended for 2025, therefore no
headlines are anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

Key Messages:

 - Elevated fire weather concerns possible again Monday
   afternoon

 - Extended period of above normal temperatures appears likely
   from mid-week on

 - Stronger frontal system possible late week/early next weekend

Another cold front will cross ENC Tuesday night, but this one
also looks fairly moisture starved with only slight chance PoPs
in the forecast for northern zones. Guidance has trended towards
stalling this boundary across the region through the later half
of the week, but this is only expected to bring increased cloud
cover with no rain chances expected. Temperatures will reach
the low to mid 70s Wednesday through Saturday.

Next weekend looks to bring a stronger frontal system that will
bring a better chance of rain to the area (20-30%).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 12:20 PM Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Gusty W winds around 20-25 kt become NW behind a dry cold
  front this afternoon

- Crosswind impacts expected at ISO behind the front this
  afternoon

VFR conditions will prevail through the period but a dry cold
front will continue to cause gusty winds (20-25 kt) across the
area, veering from W to NW this afternoon behind the front. The
post frontal NW wind will bring crosswind concerns at ISO.
Clouds should be limited, with only few/scattered at 5kft and
higher. Winds will gradually relax as we progress into the
evening, remaining around 5- 10 kt out of the NW overnight.
Tomorrow will be another VFR day with SKC and NW winds
increasing to around 10 kt with 15-20 kt gusts.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through Tuesday with high
pressure building across the region. A couple of weak systems
transit the area Tuesday night through Thursday that could bring
isolated showers across rtes with lower cigs, however guidance
keeps VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Elevated to strong winds to continue into this evening

 - Elevated seas to last into Monday

 - Elevated winds and seas potentially return late in the week

West to southwest winds of 15-25kt are ongoing at this time,
with higher gusts. The strongest winds are currently impacting
the warmer coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, where gusts of
30-35kt have been observed at times. Winds may lay down a bit
over the next few hours, but a cold front will move through this
evening, with a renewed round of enhanced mixing potentially
supporting a continued risk of 25-35kt gusts. In light of this,
the Gale Warning has been extended out through 10pm this
evening. Elsewhere, wind gusts look to hold in the 25-30kt
range, and SCAs will continue there. Winds will lay down more
substantially by Monday afternoon, and especially by Monday
night as high pressure builds in.

For the coastal waters north of Cape Lookout, seas of 4-8ft are
expected to continue through tonight, then lay down to 2-4ft by
Monday night. South of Lookout, seas of 4-7ft this afternoon
are expected to lay down to 2-4ft by Monday afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure moves offshore on Tuesday, with
southerly flow developing. Winds will then flip back and forth
between south and north as a couple of weak fronts move through.
At this time, these fronts are not expected to support 25kt, or
higher, winds. By late in the week, strengthening southerly
flow may support the next round of 25kt+ winds and 6ft+ seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 12:30 PM Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Red Flag Warning in effect for Martin, Pitt, and Greene
  Counties until 6 PM this evening

- Increased Fire Danger Statement in effect for the rest of
  eastern North Carolina except for East Carteret and the Outer
  Banks

A cold front is approaching eastern North Carolina this
afternoon and westerly winds are gusting to 20-30 mph with RHs
in the 45-50% range. As the front passes, gusty winds will shift
to the northwest and RH values will drop to around 25-35% for
areas away from the immediate coast. With the ongoing moderate
(and in some areas, severe) drought conditions, gusty winds, low
RHs, and shifting winds, critical fire weather conditions will
be in place across much of eastern North Carolina this
afternoon.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 6 PM this evening for
Martin, Pitt, and Greene Counties where RHs will be the lowest
and winds will be the strongest. An Increased Fire Danger
Statement is in effect for the rest of the area (except for East
Carteret and the Outer Banks) where RHs are expected to remain
at or above 40%.

High pressure will build into the area tomorrow and Tuesday.
Minimum RHs will be in the 25-30% range on Monday, but northwest
winds will be lighter (around 10 mph gusting to 15-20 mph in
the afternoon). Although minimum RHs will meet criteria for an
Increased Fire Danger Statement, the winds will be just under
the threshold. However, if the wind forecast trends up, an
Increased FIre Danger Statement may be needed. RHs will increase
to 25-35% on Tuesday and winds will be light and variable,
making it a less likely candidate for any fire weather
headlines.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ029-044-
     079.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ136-
     137.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Monday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...RM
FIRE WEATHER...MHX