736
FXUS62 KMHX 041807
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
107 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak front crosses the area this afternoon and evening, stalling
offshore to the south. Another low pressure system will develop
and travel along the boundary, impacting the Carolinas Friday
morning into Saturday. A front will stall off the southern NC
coast behind this system leading to unsettled weather through
this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 0130 Thursday...

Key Messages...

- There is potential for patchy dense fog and freezing fog in
  early morning hours, but confidence on any impacts is
  currently low

- Quiet, dry and below normal conditions continue today

With strong cooling tonight under high pressure and a still
saturated ground, there will also be potential for patchy fog to
develop, and there are indications that what forms could be
locally dense by early tomorrow morning. Additionally, with
temperatures dropping into the 20s, freezing fog is possible,
but confidence is currently low as to whether is will be
prevalent enough to cause any impacts on elevated roadways and
bridges.

Weak, dry, fairly diffuse front crosses the FA this afternoon
and evening bringing no precip. An increase in high clouds
through the day as 400-250mb moisture surges S of a
strengthening upper level jet developing between closed low over
CAN and positively tilted longwave trough over MEX. Front will
be barely noticeable with little change in Tds, but SFC winds
will veer from Werly to Nerly behind the front in the hours
around sunset. Highs in the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 0130 Thursday...

Key Messages...

 - Rain increases after midnight, patchy and light increasing in
   coverage and intensity closer to daybreak.
 - Far NWern Martin Co may be cold enough for wintery precip to
   mix in.

N-NEerly winds behind the weak front bring localized cold wedge
of high pressure across the area, keeping the lower levels dry
through the first half of the night. After midnight, a weak
midlevel shortwave cuts across SECONUS with developing WAA
behind warm front aloft beginning to moisten the lower levels.
This moisture influx over the cold wedge will allow for light
rain to begin making it to the ground. MinTs in the upper 30s to
low 40s keeps precip liquid for just about all of the FA.
However, far NWern areas of Martin Co may be cold enough for
some of this precip to transition to snow in the early morning
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 0230 Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region
   Friday into Saturday
 - Potential for precip to begin as snow across Martin and Pitt
   counties Friday morning, but with temps above freezing little to
   no accumulations or impacts are anticipated
 - Unsettled pattern through at least Monday
 - Drier midweek

The forecast becomes more unsettled starting Friday as a series of
lows will move along the stalled boundary offshore and several
shortwaves move through aloft. These lows will keep rain chances
in the forecast into early next week with highest chances being
from Friday morning through Saturday morning as developing low
pressure cuts across the FL Big Bend and works NEward along the
boundary, passing just offshore of the FA FRI evening. Surface
temps across northwestern zones will be near freezing Friday
morning, which will open the door for a mix of rain and/or snow.
Elsewhere, temps will be warm enough to keep the precip all
liquid. A large temperature gradient will exist on Friday with
highs in the low 40s inland under the cold wedge and mid to
upper 50s at the coast. More uniform temps across the FA SAT as
the offshore low pulls high pressure over ENC from NW to SE;
MaxTs upper 40s inland, low 50s along the coast. Slight
chance/low end chance PoPs will stick around on Sunday (highest
along the coast) with highs in the low to mid 50s.

The start of next week looks to remain unsettled along the eastern
half of the CWA with lingering PoPs with passage of cold front
expected Monday. Dry conditions across the board return Tuesday
as high pressure builds back in at the SFC behind Monday`s front and
troughing aloft that plagues ECONUS this weekend pushes
offshore. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s MON/TUE with
widespread sub- freezing MinTs away from the immediate each
night, coldest MON night/TUE am.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1 PM Thu...

Key Messages

- Increasing chances for rain and sub-VFR conditions late
  tonight into Fri morning

VFR conditions continue to prevail across ENC this afternoon as
high clouds with bases well above 10 kft have begun to
overspread the area out ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary. Clouds continue to gradually increase and will slowly
lower through the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight
as a low and its associated fronts begin to approach from the
south and west. Ceilings likely lower below VFR levels after 06Z
with the current forecast suggesting sometime between 06-12Z.
For now have TAF sites falling to a MVFR cloud deck between
08-10Z and IFR ceilings between 10-13Z across all TAF sites with
everywhere else across ENC following shortly thereafter. In
addition to this, a steady rain is forecast as well which could
reduce visibility some as well across ENC. Rain also starts
early Fri morning and continues through the forecast period.
Once ceilings reach IFR heights they likely remain IFR into Fri
night. Winds remain light generally persisting at 5-10 kts or
less.

Outlook: The next systems will move through ENC Saturday with
another one impacting the area early next week bringing
additional risks of widespread sub-VFR conditions. Periods of
moderate to heavy rain will be possible as well.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 0130 Thursday...

Key Messages...

- Conditions deteriorate tonight with Nerly surge of cool high
  pressure increasing winds and building seas behind weak front
  that will remain offshore through the weekend.
- SCAs issued for coastal waters from Ocracoke Inlet N.
- Rain likely from Tonight through the weekend and into early
  next week
- Widespread marine headlines becoming more likely MON and TUE

NW/Werly winds 5-15kt through the bulk of today. A weak, dry,
rather diffuse front crosses ENC waters this evening gradually
turning NWerly winds Nerly and then NNEerly at 15-20 kts with
some wind gusts to 25 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft, but will
briefly increase to 4-6 ft tonight, which prompted the issuance
of SCAs for Nern and Central coastal waters into the early
morning hours Saturday. PamSound may see some 25kt gusts FRI,
but coverage and duration have kept the need for an SCA here
low. Will give day shifters another cut at winds and let them
make the call whether to issue a headline for PamSound or not.

Outlook: A series of coastal lows will move through later this
week and this weekend, bringing solid chances for rain. On the
backside of MON`s low, strong Nerly winds will develop. SCAs
likely over all ENC waters, inside and outside, with Gales
possible for all coastal waters and maybe larger sounds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CEB