467
FXUS62 KMHX 090527
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1227 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move off the coast today with low pressure
developing along it, bringing a wintry mix to portions of the
area. High pressure will build back over the area mid week.
Another low and cold front move in late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 645 PM Mon...

Key messages...

 - Rain and snow this evening, with light snow accumulations for
   the northwest counties before midnight.

No real changes to the forecast this evening as a wintry mix of
snow/sleet and rain continues to work its way across our far
northern counties near Lenoir/Pitt/Greene/Beaufort, Martin,
Washington and Tyrell Counties this evening with this activity
forecast to quickly end from W-E over the next few hours. Given
current trends a dusting mainly on grassy surfaces is becoming
more likely, though max accumulations especially across
Martin/Pitt and Washington COunties can`t be ruled out just yet.

Prev Disc...Shortwave trough swings through the Southeast
states and cyclogenesis occurs off the Carolina Coast through
this eve. A combination of lowering thicknesses, along with
column cooling through inc lift/uvv and precip loading will lead
to rain changing to a ra/sn mix, possibly mostly snow for our
nwrn counties. Latest obs indicate ra/sn line advancing south
and east through the nrn parts of NC. Fcst on track with a ra/sn
mix by the evening commute time, becoming predominantly snow
before precip ends this evening. Snow showers possible as far
east as the Hwy 17 corridor from J`ville to New Bern, northward
towards Beaufort county, before precip comes to an end. Little
to no (<0.5") accums expected outside of the advisory counties
of Pitt, Martin, Washington.

Next threat for tonight will be patches of black ice, as temps
drop through the 20s late tonight and into Tue AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...

Key messages...

 - Patchy black ice early Tue. Wet roads from rain and snow
   tonight become icy, impacting the Tuesday morning commute.

Areas most susceptible to black ice will be elevated surfaces
such as bridges and overpasses. Temps will be cold for early
December, with highs generally only in the mid 40s for most
locales. The good news is that the sun will finally make an
appearance, though brisk northerly breezes will keep it on the
cold side.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...

Key messages...

 - Dry and seasonably cold mid week.

 - Another cold front moves through late week, though it appears
   to pass through on the dry side.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Dry conditions expected as high
pressure builds back in at the surface. Highs warming back
into the 50s to near 60 Wed as winds become SW. Good radiational
cooling will bring lows into the 20s for most of Mainland ENC,
with 30s on the beaches and OBX Tue night/Wed morning.

Thursday through Friday...A couple of northern stream
shortwaves push across the area during the latter half of the
week but moisture remains quite limited and guidance continues
to trend downward with PoPs. At this time, ptype looks to remain
all liquid, but pops lowered to only 10%.

Saturday through Monday...Much colder air expected behind the
front for next weekend with highs back into the 40s and lows in
the 20s, and possibly teens inland on Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- MVFR/IFR ceilings will linger through most of tonight, with
  conditions gradually improving to VFR by Tuesday morning

Widespread MVFR ceilings remain entrenched across much of ENC,
with some sites still noting IFR ceilings (including EWN).
Ceilings will continue to linger between 900-1500 ft through the
next few hours before ceilings start to erode due to the
combination of drier low-level air working its way in and
subsidence aloft. VFR conditions will then return to ENC from
northwest to southeast through this morning before persisting
through the end of the period. Winds will calm through the
overnight hours, becoming light and variable tomorrow. Skies
will remain mostly clear Tuesday except for some high clouds
building in later in the day.

Outlook: VFR conditions largely persist until this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Mon...

Key Messages

 - Strong winds and dangerous seas expected through tonight.

 - Southwest winds increase with Small Craft Advisories
   expected, with Gales on the Gulf Stream possible Wednesday
   and Wednesday night.

Through Tue...A cold front passing through this afternoon with area
of low pressure developing along it across the offshore waters
bringing strong north to northeast winds through tonight.
Continue the Gale warning for all waters except the inland
rivers with strong SCA conditions are expected. Seas build up to
7-11 ft across the northern and central waters and 5-9 ft
south. Wind diminish fairly quickly Tuesday with seas slowly
subsiding through Tuesday night.

Wed...The break in strong winds and high seas is short-lived,
as a swrly gradient inc later Wed through Wed night, with speeds
of 15-25 kt expected, and 25-35 kt over the warm Gulf waters
south of Oregon Inlet. Seas build back up to 6-10 ft south of
Oregon Inlet.

Thu through Fri...Winds and seas relax as high pres builds back
into the region, with NW winds generally 5-15 kt and seas of 2-4
ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EST early this morning for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...TL