149
FXUS62 KMHX 301807
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
107 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will move north through ENC this morning
before a cold front crosses in the evening. Behind this system
high pressure will briefly build in tomorrow before a strong
low pressure system moves through the area on Tuesday. High
pressure will then rebuild into the area from the north through
Thursday before another low pressure system impacts the region
Friday into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2 AM Sun...

Key Messages...

- Much warmer today with highs in the mid to upper 60s

- Isolated showers possible this afternoon, with better chances
  of light rain this evening into tonight

Cold conditions continue early this morning, though temps have
begun to moderate thanks to incoming clouds. Readings remain in
the low to mid 30s across most of the inland areas, and expect
temps to hold steady or rise slightly through sunrise. Along the
coast, temps are rising fairly rapidly due to clouds and
increasing winds as a weak warm front approaches the coast.

As southerly flow develops this morning behind a weak warm
front, temperatures will rise rapidly into the 60s and could
even hit 70 in some spots. High res guidance has backed off on
shower potential through the afternoon, but there should still
be a fair mix of sun and clouds. Rain chances will increase
(20-40%) late in the afternoon across the coastal plain as the
cold front front moves into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 2 AM Sun...

Key Messages...

- Cold front will cross the region early tonight with scattered
  rain chances (20-40%) for most of ENC, but light rain amounts

- Cool weather returns Monday with highs around 10 degrees below
  normal, but partly to mostly sunny skies

A cold front will continue to push through ENC early tonight
with scattered showers along it. Rain chances will taper off
after midnight, lasting the longest over the OBX. Temperature
whiplash will continue with readings falling dramatically after
midnight after evening readings in the upper 50s and low 60s. By
sunrise Monday temps will range from the low to mid 30s over the
coastal plain to the 40s along the coast.

CAA continues Monday as high pressure builds in from the north.
Some clouds may linger across the southern coast, but otherwise
mostly sunny conditions are expected. This will help make the
otherwise chilly temps tolerable, as highs will only reach the
upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2 AM Sun...

Key Messages

- A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday into
  Wednesday with the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and
  minor coastal flooding

- Below normal conditions continue the rest of next week, with
  the potential for another low pressure system to move through
  the Carolinas late week

An active weather pattern is shaping up early to mid next week.
During this time, upper level troughing is forecast to develop
across the central U.S., with southwesterly flow developing
aloft across the southern U.S. At the SFC, a notably strong area
of low pressure is forecast to develop along the Gulf Coast
Monday, then lift NE through the Southeastern U.S. early next
week.

The majority of guidance continues to depict low pressure
taking a "just" inland track as it moves through the Carolinas
and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Though there remains some
uncertainty with the track and intensity still, most model
solutions show the potential for Gale Force winds and heavy rain.

With this track we will be on the "warm" side of the low, but
just barely. There remains potential for some convective
elements and thunder, but this should be mostly confined to the
coast east of US 17, and over the nearshore marine waters. A
plume of anomalous moisture and strong forcing, appears
supportive of a period of moderate to heavy rain along the track
of the low. Ensemble guidance and other forecast aids continue
to show a notable signal for heavy rain (1-2"+). The rain is
much needed as a large portion of ENC remains in a moderate
drought. That said, some minor nuisance flooding cannot be ruled
out for areas that see higher rainfall totals and/or higher
rain rates.

For coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, we`ll have to
closely monitor the potential for oceanside and soundside
flooding impacts due to the potential for strong winds, large
waves, and a higher tide cycle.

High pressure briefly builds in towards the middle of the week,
but this may be short-lived as yet another coastal low may
impact the area towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 105 PM Sunday... VFR conditions will continue across ENC
through the rest of the afternoon with sub-VFR conditions then
expected tonight as a cold front moves through the area.

Latest surface analysis shows high pressure well to the north
and east of NC this afternoon with a cold front noted near the
Appalachians as of this update. Out ahead of the front, light
S`rly flow persists with partly cloudy skies noted across the
region. Cold front is forecast to track across ENC overnight
bringing a threat for sub-VFR ceilings and some light showers.
Have MVFR ceilings reaching our western counties and TAF
terminals (PGV/ISO) around 00-03Z Mon with MVFR ceilings
reaching EWN/OAJ terminals closer to 03-06Z Mon and the OBX
there after. Guidance continues to hint at the threat for IFR
ceilings with the passage and directly behind the cold front
mainly along and east of Hwy 17 so have added in a SCT deck of
IFR ceilings at 900ft to OAJ and EWN terminals between 05Z-09Z.
Ceilings rapidly raise behind the cold front as dry air filers
into ENC early Mon morning with ENC forecast to be back to VFR
conditions by about 12-15Z Mon. While the front will likely
bring scattered showers or a steady light rain with it, precip
amounts will be light at best (generally less than 0.10 inches)
so not expecting any vis reductions with the shower activity.
But given increased confidence in precip at all terminals have
added a mention of -RA to all terminals on this update with
timing occuring generally after 00Z and likely ending by about
06-08Z Mon. Otherwise light S`rly winds become light and
variable tonight out ahead of the front and then shift to a
N`rly direction behind the front tonight and gust to 15-20 kts
after about 14/15Z Mon across much if not all of ENC.

Outlook: High pressure builds back into the area Monday with
pred VFR conditions expected. Widespread sub- VFR likely Tuesday
as a low pressure system is forecast to lift along the coast.
High pressure builds back into the area Wednesday and Thursday
with pred VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2 AM Sun...

Key Messages...

- Small Craft conditions expected tonight through Monday
  afternoon behind a cold front

- Gale Watch issued for portions of the coastal waters for
  Tuesday due to a strong low pressure system which will track
  over the Carolinas

- Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into Wednesday

Ahead of a weak warm front winds will continue out of the NE/E
at 10-15 kts. Southerly flow develops later this morning with
winds at 5-15 kts. A cold front will cross the waters early
tonight causing winds to switch to the NW and increase to 15-25
kts with gusts to 30 kts. Strong northerly winds continue Monday
morning, with conditions slowly improving through the day. Seas
will be 2-3 ft through late tonight, when they will build to 4-6
ft in response to stronger winds. Seas subside below 6 ft Monday
afternoon.

Outlook: Fair boating conditions will briefly continue Monday
night, but this will be short lived as a strong low pressure
system moves into the coastal waters Tuesday morning. Gale
conditions are expected across the coastal waters south of
Oregon Inlet with winds S 20-30 kts with gusts to 40 kts. There
remains potential for Gale conditions to develop in other marine
zones, but this will depend on the exact track and strength of
this system as is passes by ENC. Hazardous marine conditions
will continue behind this system through Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Sun...A strong low pressure system moving through
North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and seas. This
comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2) through
Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune
structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor
coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening`s and early
Wednesday morning`s high tides. The forecast magnitude and
direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the
eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as a
result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity
are still unclear at this time.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to noon EST Monday for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for AMZ135-
     150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 5 PM EST Monday for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     AMZ152-154.
     Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX