437
FXUS62 KMHX 221801
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
101 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will be north of ENC today followed by a cold
front pushing through tonight. Cooler and drier high pressure
rebuilds Sunday into early next week before another frontal
system brings the next chance of rain late Tuesday through
Wednesday. Cool and dry high pressure then builds back in behind
this system Thanksgiving and the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 3 AM Sat...Low pressure tracking through the DelMarva this
morning will be responsible for area of rain showers through the
morning across ENC. A break in precip then expected for much of
the day as area will be firmly entrenched in warm sector. Pop
fcst is then tricky later this afternoon through evening. While
there is still a threat for some thunder, the front will still
be too far north during peak heating, when CAPE vals aoa 500
J/KG will be difficult to utilize with lack of forcing. Another
limiting factor is deep layer westerly flow, which will prohibit
a stronger moisture source, and precip very spotty in nature.
Have dropped pops back in accordance, with 20-30% chances. Have
delayed any thunder until later (after 18z) in the day. Temps
will be quite warm and humid, well into the 70s for max T`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sat...Aforementioned cold front will drop south
through ENC this evening. With loss of heating, and limited
moisture, storm threat will be minimal, but have kept in slgt
chc thunder mention for srn half early in the evening. Then
later in the evening, a wave of mid level energy will sweep
through from the west, possibly bringing the best chance for a
shower to the srn zones, and have a 40% pop for this
possibility. Mild lows tonight with lingering moisture and
clouds, and may be some patchy to areas of fog developing late
tonight. Lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sat...Warm with above climo temps expected through
mid next week. Inc shower chances Tuesday into Wed, then dry and
cool Thanksgiving through late week.

Sun through Mon...High pressure is forecast to build in behind
the early weekend front, with dry conditions ensuing. Zonal flow
will be in place, so temps should be around avg during this
period, with highs in the 60s to near 70 and lows in the 40s.
Sun night will be cool with lows in the upper 30s interior to
40s coast.

Tue through Wed...Next chance for rain arrives by Tue, and esp
Tue night into early Wed, as shortwave and frontal boundary
sweep through. This system has the potential to tap into some
GOM moisture, as layer streamlines are out of the sw through the
SE CONUS, but timing and mesoscale features are yet to be ironed
out, so no higher than 40-60% pops this far out in time. Temps
rebound to warmer than climo, with highs in the 70s and lows in
the 40s to 50s.

Thanksgiving Day through Friday...Should be on the dry side, as
guidance and respective ensembles have trended drier with a
clean frontal passage by Wed night. High temps drop back down to
below climo, with highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 20s to
upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1 PM Sat...

Key Messages

 - Low stratus likely (70%+ chance) to bring IFR conditions to much
of ENC tonight

 - Low chance (10-30%) of showers this afternoon and evening,   with
another 20-40% chance for areas along and south of   Highway 70
after midnight tonight

 - VFR conditions return with clearing skies late Sunday morning

VFR conditions prevail across much of ENC as of early Saturday
afternoon, with only a few lingering areas of broken MVFR ceilings
around 2kft. Remaining low clouds will continue to scatter out while
moving off to the east over the next hour, with a return to VFR
conditions for EWN/ISO. VFR conditions will then prevail through the
afternoon and evening hours today with gusty southwesterly winds
this afternoon (gusts 15-25 kts) and a slight chance (10-30%) of
isolated rain showers as a cold front pushes through the region.
Coverage is likely to be widely scattered at best given generally
weak upper-level support/forcing.

As the cold front pushes through the region, low-level cold air
advection and moisture pooling underneath a frontal inversion will
lead to the resurgence of low stratus from northeast to southwest.
Confidence is high (greater than 70% chance) for low stratus to
bring widespread IFR conditions to much of ENC tonight. A second,
weak shortwave will also push through the region after midnight
tonight. This will bring another low chance (10-30%) of isolated to
scattered showers before dawn on Sunday. Have opted against
including a mention of precip in the TAFs as of this cycle but will
continue to monitor trends.

Low stratus will be slow to lift tomorrow morning given the frontal
version that will be in place. Current expectation is for sub-VFR
conditions to linger into the late morning before skies clear out
for the rest of the TAF period.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR conditions expected through early this
coming week as cooler high pressure builds into the region. Another
frontal system will bring the next chances for precip mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 AM Fri...Fog threat is quickly waning early this morning
as swrly flow begins to inc. Solid SCA winds still on track for
today over the Gulf waters south of Oregon Inlet.

Today...Warm front lifting through the coastal waters, and
gradient will inc through the morning as cold front approaches
from the north. Should see swrly winds of 15-25kt g 30kt south
of Oregon Inlet over the warmer offshore waters. Elsewhere,
winds of 10-20kt but will remain below SCA.

Tonight...Aforementioned cold front sweeps south this evening
with winds turning nrly. North surge not as strong, so have
ended the SCA this afternoon. Seas will be 3-5 ft north of
Ocracoke and 2-4 ft south of Ocracoke.

Sunday through Monday...Reinforcing nrly surge could bring
marginal SCA winds to the coastal waters Sunday night to early
Monday with 15-25 kt possible.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Return srly to swrly flow ensues
with winds inc once again to near SCA criteria for the srn and
ctrl waters ahead of a cold front and low pres system.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 11/22 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        78/1992      (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   78/1985      (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      81/1931      (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   79/1997      (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         80/1953      (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    77/2007      (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...TL
CLIMATE...MHX