259
FXUS62 KMHX 011850
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
250 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool dry air spills into the area as high pressure builds
over ENC through the weekend. A weak coastal low forms tomorrow
night into Monday with light rain likely. High pres builds back
in later Mon into mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Amplified upper air pattern across the CONUS
this afternoon as deep closed low continues to dig into the
central MS River Valley this afternoon, resulting in broad
southwesterly flow across the Carolinas. Weak surface high
pressure prevails over the southeastern states, and skies remain
clear this hour over the region.

Skies are forecast to remain clear the first half of tonight as
high pressure continues to be the dominant weather maker. We
could see some increase in upper level clouds early Sun morning
as upper trough and weak frontal surface reflection advance
eastward. Given the skies and forecast calm winds, temperatures
will likely nosedive again after sunset tonight and set the
stage for frost formation, especially west of Highway 17 where
afternoon Tds suggest overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Here, a Frost Advisory has been issued after collaboration with
neighboring offices.

Closer to the coast, lows will sit in the 40s to around 50
directly on the water.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 240 PM Sat...Dry and mainly clear start to Sunday,
although clouds gradually increase through the day as
aforementioned upper low digs further towards the southeastern
CONUS. As is typical ahead of approaching upper lows, coastal
trough expected to sharpen offshore and resultant increase in
low level convergence will likely drive some light shower
activity offshore, which may drift across the southern
coastlines before sunset. Heavier rainfall, coinciding with
strengthening IVT, will hold off until the overnight hours.

Temps slightly higher tomorrow despite strengthening easterly
flow, rising into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2 AM Sat...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure system is forecast to impact ENC Sunday night into
Monday bringing a threat for precip and breezy conditions

Overall a rather progressive upper level pattern sets up across the
CONUS this coming week with multiple upper level troughs tracking
across the Eastern Seaboard. Will have a chance at rain and breezy
conditions Sunday night into Monday with the first trough with a much
drier pattern setting up beyond that at the surface.

Sunday through Tuesday...Have continued to gain a further consensus
on the upper level and surface pattern across the Eastern half of
the CONUS over the next few days with just minor timing and location
differences in the grand scheme of things. We will start the period
out with a positively tilted upper level trough noted from the
Interior Northeast S`wards into the Gulf Coast States. Latest trends
suggests this upper trough will be rather progressive pushing
offshore by Mon night/Tue. Associated mid level shortwave/closed low
will be near the Tennessee River Valley on Sun eventually pushing
off the Southeast Coast on Mon and then out to sea on Tue. At the
surface, high pressure just to the north and east will track further
out into the North Atlantic while surface cyclogenesis begins off
the Southeast Coast Sun afternoon/evening. This will act to increase
precip chances and NE`rly winds across the region Sun evening. Low
pressure then begins to deepen as it tracks NE`wards Sun night into
Mon, bringing a more widespread rain shield to ENC. Greatest chance
to see precip will be east of Hwy 17 with lower chances further
inland resulting in little help to the ongoing drought across the
Coastal Plain. Latest guidance suggests general rainfall totals
around 0.25-0.75" between Sun night and Mon night with high end
amounts of 1-2" possible if low strengthens further than currently
forecast and heavier rainfall spreads further inland. Low then pulls
away from ENC Mon night into Tue morning bringing much drier weather
to the area as high pressure ridging builds overhead on Tue.
However, breezy winds especially along the OBX are expected through
at least Tue evening as the gradient remains tight between the
departing low and incoming high pressure system. Cold start to Sun
with patchy frost likely mainly east of Hwy 17 Wed morning however
we warm into the mid to upper 60s Sun and again on Mon. Highs are
closer to the low to mid 60s on Tue as colder air filters into the
region behind the departing low. Lows will be in the mid 40s to mid
50s Sun and Mon night with much colder temps expected Tue night with
lows getting into the upper 30s inland and 50s along the OBX. This
would once again bring the potential fro frost to portions of ENC
Tue night into Wed morning

Wednesday through Friday....Progressive upper level pattern
continues with next upper trough tracking across the Mid-Atlantic
Wed night into Thurs and then yet another potential upper level
trough tracking across the region by next weekend. At the surface,
high pressure builds over the area Tue night and pushes offshore on
Wed. A dry cold front tracks across the region Wed night into Thurs.
Another ridge of high pressure then begins to build over the Mid-
Atlantic Thurs into Fri. Temps remain about avg to slightly below
avg to end the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Sun/...
As of 245 PM Sat...VFR SKC through TAF pd with high pres
overhead. Light to calm winds today into tonight. Cont dry atms
prohibits any fg/br development.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 2 AM Sat...

Key Messages...

 -Benign flying weather for most of Sunday

 -Next chance of sub-VFR conditions Sun night into Mon

Expecting mainly VFR conditions through much of Sun as high pressure
remains in control of the weather pattern across ENC. As we get into
Sun night and Mon, a developing coastal low pressure system brings a
threat for sub-VFR conditions to ENC as widespread showers bring
lower clouds and vis to the area. More benign weather and VFR
conditions are then expected by Tue and into Wednesday as
aforementioned low pulls away from ENC and high pressure builds
overhead.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sun night/...
As of 250 PM Sat...Good boating conditions over area waters this
afternoon as weak high pressure remains in place over the
southeastern CONUS. Winds range from variable to westerly at
around 10 kt with seas 2-3 feet with a 10-11 second swell.
Conditions expected to slowly deteriorate, especially tomorrow
afternoon, as coastal trough sharpens ahead of approaching upper
low. Winds will gradually increase out of the east to east-
northeast through Sunday in response, increasing to 15-20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt likely after sunset.

Given good model support and increasing confidence, issued SCA
for offshore waters south of Oregon Inlet starting tomorrow
night and extending through Tuesday. Additional zones will
likely need to be added overnight.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Sat...

Key Messages:

 - Small craft advisories becoming increasingly likely across our
waters Sun night into Monday as low pressure impacts the area.

High pressure to the north and east pulls away from ENC through the
day on Sunday bringing widespread 5-15 kt NE`rly winds and 2-4 ft
seas to the area through Sun afternoon. By Sun evening and
overnight, a surface low develops off the Southeast Coast tightening
the pressure gradient and turning winds to a more E`rly direction at
15-25 kts with gusts up around 20-30 kts. With increasing winds,
seas will also build overnight Sun to 3-5 ft and then 4-6 ft along
our coastal waters once again bringing a return to SCA conditions to
our waters. In addition to this, widespread shower and isolated
thunderstorm activity is also expected to begin by Sun night. Low
then tracks NE`wards Mon into Tue morning keeping winds and seas
elevated, but turning them to a N to NW direction with strong SCA to
near gale force conditions currently forecast. High pressure then
begins to build in from the west Tue pushing aforementioned low
further out to sea resulting in easing winds and seas Tue evening
into Wed as high pressure builds overhead.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ029-044-079-
     090-091.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...MS/RCF