168
FXUS62 KMHX 132326
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
626 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming trend through the week with high pressure in control.
A dry cold front will move through late Sunday, and another
front mid next week, though again should remain mostly dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 6 PM Thursday...High pressure will remain in control
tonight, leading to a good radiational cooling setup with clear
skies and light to calm winds. Lows are forecast to bottom out
in the mid-30s for the majority of the area with the OBX
remaining in the upper-40s to low-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 12 PM Thursday...High pressure will remain the dominant
feature with sunny skies prevailing another day. Highs will be
just a couple of degrees cooler in the low-60s with light NW
winds backing to the SW through the day. Min RHs will be in the
upper-20s to low-30s across the coastal plain, but lighter winds
will help lessen fire weather concerns compared to today.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 12 PM Thursday...

Friday Night-Weekend...With greater cloud cover and breezier
overnight winds, Friday night will be more mild with lows in the
mid-40s across the coastal plain and low-50s at the beaches. The
warming trend will continue through the weekend with highs
reaching the upper-60s to low-70s on Saturday and low- to
mid-70s on Sunday. A dry cold front is progged to push through
the area later Sunday, but the only sensible weather will be
breezy winds and cooler overnight lows back into the mid-40s to
low-50s.

Monday-Thursday...Temps will drop back into the 60s to start the
week, reaching the mid-60s to nearly 70 by Tuesday. Our next
front will push through Tuesday night, and although there are
slightly better chances for precip with this FROPA, it still
looks pretty moisture starved at this time (PoPs <25%). The rest
of the period looks dry with temps in the mid- to upper-60s
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 620 PM Thu...

Key Messages

 - Light winds and VFR conditions through Friday

VFR conditions expected to persist through the TAF period with high
pressure over the region. Calm winds and high cloud slowly
moving offshore and becoming clear tonight, with dry air in the
low- levels expected to preclude any chances of fog.

Outlook: VFR prevails into the weekend with dry high pressure over
the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 12 PM Thursday...

Key Messages
- SCA conditions likely Saturday night into Sunday night/early
  Monday

Latest obs show NW winds at 10-15 kt gusting to 15-20 kt with
2-4 ft seas. Conditions should remain status quo until later
tomorrow afternoon/evening when winds will back to the W,
increasing to 15-20 kt with a few gusts nearing 25 kt Saturday
morning. Winds will continue to back to the SW through the day
and the gradient will become more pinched, causing winds to ramp
up Saturday night. SW winds will increase to 20-30 kt with solid
SCA gusts and potentially a few gale gusts, especially along the
outer coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. These conditions
will last through mid day Sunday when SW winds will gradually
veer to the west and relax to 15-25 kt (strongest winds south of
Cape Hatteras). Seas will build overnight Saturday in response,
peaking Sunday morning at 5-8 ft south of Cape Hatteras, 4-7 ft
north of Cape Hatteras, and 3-5 ft across the northern waters.
Conditions will improve through the day with all waters
expected to be below 6 ft by Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 12 PM Thursday...There is some potential for increased
fire danger this afternoon as northwest winds increase to 10-15
mph with gusts to 20-25 mph with minimum RHs 25-30%. Similar dry
conditions are expected Friday afternoon, but winds are
forecast to remain light (5-10 mph).

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC/RJ
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...SGK/RJ
MARINE...OJC
FIRE WEATHER...MHX