Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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808
FXUS62 KMHX 180624
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
224 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually slide offshore late today and
tonight. The next cold front crosses the area late this weekend
into Monday, which will bring the next chance of rain. Behind
this front mild high pressure builds in through mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 225 AM Sat...Latest analysis shows high pressure centered
along the Eastern Seaboard, with scattered high clouds
streaming across the area. The upper ridge will move overhead
and the surface high will start to move offshore today.
Increasing heights will support warmer temps in the mid-70s
across the coastal plain and upper-60s to low-70s along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Sat...High pressure and upper ridge will grad
slide offshore tonight. Mostly clear skies and light winds will
lead to strong radiational cooling conditions. Though SSW winds
will allow dewpoints to rise a bit, trended on the cooler side
of guidance with temps overnight. Lows falling into the low 50s
inland and mid/upper 50s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...

Key Messages...

  - High pressure moves farther offshore Sunday with above normal
temps lingering

  - Next chance of light rain expected late Sunday night through
Monday morning as a cold front moves through

  - Mild and dry conditions continue through next week

High pressure moves offshore Sunday with above normal
temperatures persisting as highs approach 80. Guidance is then in
rather good agreement regarding the pattern for next week. The
next chance of rain will come late Sunday night into early
Monday as a quick moving cold front moves across the Southeast.
This front will bring a return of cooler temperatures with highs in
the upper 60s to near 70 Monday/Tuesday. A reinforcing dry cold
front is then forecast to push through ENC Tuesday night into
early Wednesday with high pressure building in behind the front.
This will keep temperatures mild through the end of the coming
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 225 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. However, there is a low probability of patchy fog at the
inland terminals through 12z...though sct high clouds should
limit that risk. Light winds expected today with high clouds
pushing off the coast this afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through
the coming week with high pressure over the region. A cold front
will bring scattered showers late Sunday night and into Monday
morning, with temporary flight restrictions possible. Cooler and
drier weather returns for the rest of the work week as high
pressure builds in once more.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 225 AM Sat...Latest obs show W-N winds 5-10 kt with seas
4-7 ft north of Ocracoke and 2-4 ft south. High pressure will
remain in control, gradually shifting off the coast late today
and tonight, as a cold front approaches from the west. Light
winds will continue today grad becoming SSW this afternoon,
increasing to 5-15 kt tonight. Long period swell from distant
low pressure system will increase through the day and tonight.
Seas expected to remain at 4-8 ft across the northern and
central waters into tonight, and building to 4-6 ft across the
southern waters this evening.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - Another period of hazardous marine conditions are expected
   Sunday through Monday ahead of a quick moving cold front

Winds turn SW Sunday morning and strengthen to 15-25 kts ahead
of a cold front. Winds peak 20-30 kts Sunday night with strong
Small Craft conditions expected across most marine zones.
Ensemble probabilities currently suggest a 30-50% chance of
gusts to Gale Force Sunday night. Potential for Gales will
continue to be monitored. Winds will then turn to the NW Monday
behind the front at 10-20 kts, and then continue out of the
W/SW at 10-20 kts Tuesday.

By Sunday seas increase to 6-10 ft as winds increase ahead of a
cold front, and then subside to 5-8 ft Monday, and 3-5 ft
Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Monday
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...CQD/ZC
MARINE...CQD/ZC