789
FXUS62 KMHX 072353
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
653 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through on Monday with low pressure
developing along it, bringing a wintry mix to portions of the area.
High pressure will build back over the area mid week. Another low
and cold front move in late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 645 PM Sun...No significant changes to tonight`s forecast
though there is growing concern for more widespread fog tonight
with areas of dense fog possible tonight especially across the
coastal plain given the current observations tonight. WIll
continue to monitor the situation but an SPS for fog or a dense
fog advisory may become necessary tonight depending on exact
trends. No freezing fog is forecast tonight as temps look to
remain above freezing this evening.

Prev Disc...For tonight, partial clearing occurs, leading to
patchy to areas of fog, locally dense at times, esp nwrn
counties. No freezing fog expected, as temps will be warmer than
last night. Lows range from 32-36 inland, to the 40s along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

Key messages...

- Wintry mix expected Monday afternoon to evening northwest
  counties.

- Black ice formation Mon night to Tue AM as temperatures fall
  into the 20s. Wet roads from rain and snow Monday become icy
  later Mon night, impacting the Tuesday morning commute.

As of 645 PM Sun...Tricky fcst upcoming with p-type and snow
amount challenges for your Monday. Shortwave trough will swing
through swings through the Southeast states, while sfc
cyclogenesis occurs off the Carolina Coast. A combination of
lowering thicknesses through the day, along with column cooling
through inc lift/uvv and precip loading will lead to rain
changing to a ra/sn mix, possibly mostly snow for our nwrn
counties. Model differences abound however, with some of the
guidance (NAM/FV3/GFS) indicating a colder column and more rapid
changeover to snow, while the Euro, AIFS, CMC, HRRR are warmer
aloft and retain snow the far northwest. Have based the forecast
and snow amts on the ECM, which as been quite consistent, with
any accums relegated to the far nwrn counties. Probabilities for
1" of snow are ~30-60% along the Hwy 64 corridor from Plymouth
to wrn Martin county, ~10-30% for the Hwy 264 corridor from
Washington to Farmville in Pitt County. This makes the most
sense, as temps will be well above freezing through the day Mon,
making it difficult for snow to accumulate. The NAM/GFS are too
bullish on snow amounts given the warmer initial conditions. By
the time temps fall to freezing and below Mon evening, snow
should be tapering off quickly from w to e. For the eastern and
southern counties, predominantly rain is fcst.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...

Key messages...

- Black ice formation Mon night to Tue AM as temperatures fall
  into the 20s. Wet roads from rain and snow Monday become icy
  later Mon night, impacting the Tuesday morning commute.

Dry and seasonably cold mid week. Another weather maker
possible by week`s end, turning much colder next weekend.

Monday night through Tuesday...Biggest impacts from the snow
and precipitation will be the development of black ice, as
temperatures fall through the 20s during the overnight period.
Any rain or snow that falls during the day will freeze up
overnight, esp on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses,
leading to hazardous conditions for the Tue morning commute.

Wednesday through Thursday...Dry conditions expected as high
pressure builds back in at the surface. Highs in the 40s Tue
warming back into the 50s to near 60 Wed and Thu as winds
become Sw. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into the 20s
for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and OBX Tue
night/Wed morning.

Friday through Saturday...Next chc for precip arrives by week`s
end, as next shortwave trough swings through the Ern CONUS.
Latest 07/12Z model suite has trended drier however, so pops
have not been raised, and remain at 20-30%. At this time, ptype
looks to remain all liquid. Much colder air expected behind the
front for next weekend with highs back into the 40s and lows
in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 PM Sun...

Key Messages...

- IFR/LIFR ceilings and/or visibilities return tonight through
  tomorrow morning

- IFR conditions will likely persist through most of tomorrow as
  rain/snow moves into the area

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are currently noted as patchy
fog is hidden underneath a fairly large shield of high cirrus
with PGV/OAJ currently seeing vis reduced to about 4-5SM. This
high cirrus deck should gradually push offshore late tonight
closer to about 3-6Z. As this occurs, guidance has continued to
suggest a quick deterioration of conditions with widespread
IFR/LIFR conditions returning to ENC with a mix of low stratus
and fog for much of ENC outside of the OBX starting between
04-09Z. Fog is likely to become very dense again across the
coastal plain, and even as far east as US 17. Similar to last
night, areas of very low stratus will also form, but its unclear
what the predominate impact to flying conditions will be
overnight and into tomorrow morning. Either way sub-VFR
conditions are expected for all terminals tonight. Rain is then
forecast to track into the area starting mid morning from west
to east impacting PGV/ISO terminals first followed by EWN/OAJ
near mid afternoon. A changeover to a mix of rain and snow and
then all snow is forecast Mon afternoon with the greatest risk
for this to occur being across PGV and our NW`rn counties. As a
result have this noted in the TAFs on this cycle. There remains
potential for a more widespread changeover to snow across
additional terminals as far south as ISO/EWN but given lack of
confidence in this occuring have kept precip as all rain at the
other terminals. IFR conditions are likely to continue at least
into the the evening hours.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions may persist Monday night before VFR
conditions return through at least midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Sun...

Key Messages

- Strong winds and dangerous seas expected Monday and Monday
  night.

Tonight...Generally light nrly flow cont with speeds of 5-15 kt
and seas of 2-4 ft.

Mon through Tue...Backdoor front passes through and strong
north to northeast winds develop. Latest 07/12Z guidance has inc
winds, and have expanded gales to all marine zones except for
inland rivers, with winds speeds of 20-30 kt, gusting to 35 kt
expected. Higher gusts up to 40 kt poss on the warmer well mixed
outer waters. Seas will quickly increase to 6-10 ft Monday and
continue into early Tue, subsiding below 6 ft late Tue.

Wed...The break in strong winds and high seas is short-lived,
as a swrly gradient inc later Wed through Wed night, with speeds
of 15-25 kt expected, and 25-35 kt over the warm Gulf waters
south of Oregon Inlet. Seas build back up to 6-10 ft south of
Oregon Inlet.

Thu through Fri...Winds and seas relax as high pres builds back
into the region, with NW winds generally 5-15 kt and seas of 2-4
ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Monday to midnight EST
     Monday night for NCZ029-044-045.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM EST Monday for AMZ131-135-150-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday
     night for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...TL