175
FXUS62 KMHX 060248
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
948 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system off of Cape Hatteras will travel further
out to sea tonight but leave a front stalled offshore to the
south. This front will move little through Saturday leading to
unsettled weather through early next week at times, especially
southern areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 945 PM Fri...Latest radar imagery shows much of the light
rain now offshore. Precip should generally remain just offshore
or right along the Crystal Coast tonight as a frontal boundary
remains just offshore. Could see some periods of patchy fog,
drizzle, and mist inland through tonight as well given the moist
environment and low stratus over the region.

Prev Disc...Band of overrunning stratiform rain cont to
envelope all of ENC today. Main area of lift will exit off the
coast this evening, with rain tapering off as it does so. Cool
and clammy conditions for the overnight with lows in the 30s
north and west to 40s south and east. Periods of light drizzle
and mist will cont to afflict the region overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Same boundary is forecast to remain stalled
just south of ENC on Saturday. Given the close proximity, and
various upper level waves moving through the region, there`s the
potential for areas of very light precipitation esp for the
Crystal Coast and Onslow. Rain chances taper off to chc to the
north, and slight chance to none north of Hwy 264. Have lowered
max T`s owing the cont low stratus expected to envelop ENC, and
jives closer to MOS blend/HREF advertised highs in the 45-50
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Mainly dry Sun, then small precip chances Mon,
with dry and seasonably cold mid week. Another weather maker
possible by week`s end.

Sunday...High pressure center reaches the Carolinas from the N,
providing a brief break in the wet weather. Partial clearing of
skies with a decrease in moisture and increasing heights allow
MaxTs to reach back into the 50s.

Monday...The start of next week brings another chc of precip
with passage of cold front expected. Aloft, upper low will swing
through, and spur offshore cyclogenesis late in the day and
evening. Typical cold air chasing moisture scenario, where temps
tumble through late afternoon, but moisture is coming to an end.
There may be some overlap where rain mixes with some snow, but
no impacts would occur even if this low end scenario pans out,
as daytime highs will be in the 40s and a `warm` ground would be
in place.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions across the board
return as high pressure builds back in at the SFC behind
Monday`s front and trough axis aloft finally pushes E of the
coast. Highs generally in the 50s, and lows in the 20s Mon
night/Tue night. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into
the 20s for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and
OBX.

Friday...Next chc for appreciable precip arrives by week`s end,
as next shortwave trough swings through the Ern CONUS in a cont
active synoptic pattern. Due to uncertainty this far out in
details and timing, pops kept at 20% or lower for now.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 PM Fri...

Key Messages...

- High confidence in IFR/LIFR ceilings continuing through at
  least 7-10AM Sat

- Improving conditions will late tomorrow afternoon/evening

Rain has generally pushed away from the TAF terminals this
evening, but remains relegated along the Crystal Coast and OBX
south of about Cape Hatteras. This light rain shield should
generally remain around the same area, potentially pushing just
offshore tonight as a stalling front sets up just to the south
of the region. Either way, currently seeing widespread LIFR
ceilings (<500 ft) with IFR vis (3 miles or less) across the
Coastal Plain and inland TAF terminals (ISO/PGV) With a mix of
LIFR and IFR ceilings (generally between 900-400 ft) east of
about Hwy 17 (EWN/OAJ terminals) with a few patchy areas of
MVFR ceilings within ongoing rain along the immediate coast and
Hatteras Island. Low clouds and patchy fog will remain locked in
across the entire region tonight behind the departing rain as
surface moisture will remain locked in place resulting in
widespread IFR/LIFR conditions tonight. General expectation is
for all TAF sites to reach LIFR ceilings by 03Z tonight and
remain at LIFR into Sat morning with ceilings lifting to IFR
levels by about 13-16Z and then then MVFR from west to east
between 16-19Z and finally VFR after about 22Z Sat. Patchy fog
with visibilities around 3-5 miles will persist into tomorrow
morning. WInds continue to remain light across ENC as well
through the TAF period.

Outlook:
Beyond Saturday VFR conditions likely persist across the area on
SUn out ahead of the next approaching coastal low pressure
system. By Monday a potential return to sub-VFR conditions
returns to ENC as the low makes it closest point of approach.
VFR conditions are then once again expected Tue into Wed across
ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 945 PM Fri... Only change was to extend the small craft
advisories north of Cape Hatteras until 4AM Sat as 6ft seas
continue to hang on across these waters. Otherwise no other
significant changes to the forecast are expected tonight.

Prev Disc...nnerly surge was not as strong as expected,
and have cancelled the SCA for Pam sound early, though 6 ft seas
linger for the waters north of Hatteras, and SCA remains
through early this evening.

Sat through Sun...Good boating conditions on the weekend with
mainly 2-4 ft seas, with some 5 ft sets outer waters, but winds
in the 5-15 kt range.

Mon...Backdoor front passes through with a sharp ramp up in
winds expected. Solid SCA conditions expected, with the
possibility for gales, esp the better mixed Gulf waters offshore
south of C Hatteras. Seas will quickly inc to 5-8 ft during the
day Mon and remain there through early Tue.

Tue through Thu...Winds and seas relax a bit, though by late
Wed winds turn swrly and inc to near SCA (15-25 kt) for the Gulf
waters, and 10-20 kt elsewhere.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ150-152.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...TL/RCF