720
FXUS62 KMHX 101114
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
614 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore today ahead of a fast moving front
that will push across the area tonight. High pressure builds in
again Thursday and Friday, then pushes offshore Friday night
ahead of another low pressure system potentially impacting the
area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 2 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages...

 - Warmer with gusty winds ahead of a dry cold front

A robust northern stream shortwave approaches the East Coast
today while a surface low pushes across the Great Lakes with the
attendant cold front crossing the Appalachians late this
afternoon. Will see increasing mid and high clouds but
moisture is quite limited with this system and not expecting any
precip. Tightening pressure gradients ahead of the front will
bring SW winds with gusts to around 25-35 mph. SW winds will
also bring a warm up with high expected in the mid to upper
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 2 AM Wednesday...The aforementioned dry cold front will
push through overnight with clearing skies and CAA ramping up
behind the front. Temps will fall to the mid 30s inland and
upper 30s to around 40 along the coast by daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 2 AM Wednesday...

Key messages...

 - High pressure brings cool temperatures and dry conditions
   late this week.

 - A low pressure system with limited moisture is expected on
   Sunday

Thursday through Friday...High pressure builds in from the
west Thursday bringing mainly sunny skies and breezy NW winds
with CAA persisting through the day. Temps will be well below
normal with highs in the mid to upper 40s. High pressure becomes
centered over the area Thursday night with mainly clear skies
and light/calm winds allowing for good radiational cooling
allowing for lows in the mid to upper 20s across the coastal
plain to mid 30s along the Outer Banks. A passing shortwave
will bring increasing high clouds on Friday while flow returning
to the southwest will warm us a few degrees with highs ranging
from the upper 40s across northwestern zones to mid 50s along
the coast. Not quite as cold Friday night with lows in the low
to mid 30s for much of the area to low 40s coast.

Saturday through Tuesday...Another northern stream shortwave
will move across the upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic through the
weekend with the attendant cold front pushing across the area
on Sunday. Moisture continues to be quite limited and most
guidance keeps dry conditions with the FROPA. Saturday will
likely be the warmest day of period in a pre-frontal airmass and
expect highs in the mid to upper 50s. Still some differences in
the timing of the front on Sunday leading to uncertainty with
temps. Have highs in the low to mid 50s but a faster FROPA could
keep portions of the area in the 40s. Arctic high pressure
builds in from the north behind the front with much colder air
building back into the area early next week. Lows Monday morning
could drop into the teens well inland and 20s for much of the
rest of the area and temps may struggle to reach 40 on Monday.
High pressure becomes centered over the area Tuesday with
gradual warmer temps.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 615 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - VFR expected through the TAF period with a window of LLWS
   concerns for PGV/ISO this evening

VFR conditions continue to persist across ENC as of Wednesday
morning, with only some scattered high cloud cover across the
region. High clouds will linger through much of today, with
breezy southwesterly winds developing ahead of an approaching
dry cold front. Expect to see wind gusts of 20-25 kts across TAF
sites with gusts of 25-35 kts along the OBX today. Cold front
will then push through the area later tonight, but with limited
available moisture, only expect some mid-level clouds to
accompany the frontal passage. Most notable change to the TAFs
this cycle was to introduce a period of LLWS to PGV/ISO later
tonight due to a strengthening low-level jet that will
overspread the region along/ahead of the approaching front.
Stronger shear looks to stay off to the north and west of
OAJ/EWN, but may need to include a mention of LLWS for these
terminals in future TAF cycles. After the frontal passage, winds
will veer to northwesterly, remaining 5-10 kts (gusts to 15 kts)
overnight, which will preclude any fog threat.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected through this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Southwest winds increase today ahead of a cold front with
   Small Craft Advisories expected most waters and Gales near
   the Gulf Stream.

Today and Tonight...Currently seeing light and variable winds
less than 10 kt across the water while seas have subsided to 3-6
ft. Winds will become SW and increase ahead of a cold front
today with SCA conditions developing across most waters this
afternoon and Gales for the waters near the Gulf Stream. Seas
will build to 7-11 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 4-7 ft north.
The front will push through the waters tonight with winds
becoming NW late

Thursday and Friday...High pressure will build into the area
Thursday with NW winds and seas slowly diminishing through the
day and drop below SCA criteria by late in the day. High
pressure over the area to start Friday but will slide south
during the afternoon as a shortwave trough approaches the area.
Winds will back to SW and increase during the afternoon with low
end SCA possible Friday night, primarily near the Gulf Stream.

Saturday and Sunday...High pressure builds back across the
waters Saturday bringing better boating conditions but that will
be short-lived as another frontal system approaches the area
Saturday night and pushes across the area Sunday. May see
minimal SCA conditions ahead of the front Sunday but strong SCA
to potential Gales will be possible late Sunday/Sunday night as
CAA ramps up with Arctic high pressure building in to the area.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST
     Thursday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
     Thursday for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Thursday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154.
     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Thursday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...SK