


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
808 FXUS62 KMHX 180624 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 224 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gradually slide offshore late today and tonight. The next cold front crosses the area late this weekend into Monday, which will bring the next chance of rain. Behind this front mild high pressure builds in through mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 225 AM Sat...Latest analysis shows high pressure centered along the Eastern Seaboard, with scattered high clouds streaming across the area. The upper ridge will move overhead and the surface high will start to move offshore today. Increasing heights will support warmer temps in the mid-70s across the coastal plain and upper-60s to low-70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM Sat...High pressure and upper ridge will grad slide offshore tonight. Mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to strong radiational cooling conditions. Though SSW winds will allow dewpoints to rise a bit, trended on the cooler side of guidance with temps overnight. Lows falling into the low 50s inland and mid/upper 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 2 AM Saturday... Key Messages... - High pressure moves farther offshore Sunday with above normal temps lingering - Next chance of light rain expected late Sunday night through Monday morning as a cold front moves through - Mild and dry conditions continue through next week High pressure moves offshore Sunday with above normal temperatures persisting as highs approach 80. Guidance is then in rather good agreement regarding the pattern for next week. The next chance of rain will come late Sunday night into early Monday as a quick moving cold front moves across the Southeast. This front will bring a return of cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 Monday/Tuesday. A reinforcing dry cold front is then forecast to push through ENC Tuesday night into early Wednesday with high pressure building in behind the front. This will keep temperatures mild through the end of the coming work week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 225 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. However, there is a low probability of patchy fog at the inland terminals through 12z...though sct high clouds should limit that risk. Light winds expected today with high clouds pushing off the coast this afternoon. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 2 AM Saturday...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the coming week with high pressure over the region. A cold front will bring scattered showers late Sunday night and into Monday morning, with temporary flight restrictions possible. Cooler and drier weather returns for the rest of the work week as high pressure builds in once more. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 225 AM Sat...Latest obs show W-N winds 5-10 kt with seas 4-7 ft north of Ocracoke and 2-4 ft south. High pressure will remain in control, gradually shifting off the coast late today and tonight, as a cold front approaches from the west. Light winds will continue today grad becoming SSW this afternoon, increasing to 5-15 kt tonight. Long period swell from distant low pressure system will increase through the day and tonight. Seas expected to remain at 4-8 ft across the northern and central waters into tonight, and building to 4-6 ft across the southern waters this evening. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 2 AM Saturday... Key Messages - Another period of hazardous marine conditions are expected Sunday through Monday ahead of a quick moving cold front Winds turn SW Sunday morning and strengthen to 15-25 kts ahead of a cold front. Winds peak 20-30 kts Sunday night with strong Small Craft conditions expected across most marine zones. Ensemble probabilities currently suggest a 30-50% chance of gusts to Gale Force Sunday night. Potential for Gales will continue to be monitored. Winds will then turn to the NW Monday behind the front at 10-20 kts, and then continue out of the W/SW at 10-20 kts Tuesday. By Sunday seas increase to 6-10 ft as winds increase ahead of a cold front, and then subside to 5-8 ft Monday, and 3-5 ft Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...ZC AVIATION...CQD/ZC MARINE...CQD/ZC