990
FXUS62 KMHX 121901
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
201 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming trend through the week with high pressure in control.
A dry cold front will move through late Sunday, and another
front mid next week, though again should be mostly on the dry
side.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2 PM Wed...A mid level shortwave pushes across the Mid-
Atlantic tonight with an attendant sfc trough/front pushing
through the area. The airmass remains very dry and don`t expect
much in the way of clouds, let alone precip, with this system.
Westerly breeze should keep temps more mild than the past
several nights with lows falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s
inland and 45-50 beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 2 PM Wed...Zonal wnw downsloping flow off the Appalachains
means warm temps and very dry dewpoints. Deep diurnal mixing
expected and have inc wind gusts to around 20 mph during peak
afternoon heating. Later shifts will have to monitor for fire wx
concerns, as afternoon RH`s are expected in the upper 20s to
lower 30s percentile. Highs temps expected in the mid 60s most
locales.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2 PM Wed...Warming trend through the week with high
pressure in control. A dry cold front will move through late this
weekend, and another front by mid next week, though again
should be mostly on the dry side.

Fri through Sun...End of the week into the weekend will cont dry
and warm, with above climo temps expected as highs in the 70s
and lows in the 40s and 50s are forecast. Flow will be swrly and
bring inc hts/thicknesses and hence the warmer pattern.

Mon through Wed...Dry cold front sweeps through Sun night,
switching winds from swrly to nwrly and bringing temps back to
near climo early to mid next week. Highs generally in the 60s
Mon to 65-70 Tue into Wed, with lows in the 40-45 range. Another
weak front moves through Tue night, though pops remain below 20%
attm and should move through mainly on the dry side.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 12 pm Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Gusty winds (20-25kt) today
 - LLWS potential late this evening through just after midnight

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with high
pressure over the region. Clear skies this afternoon will remain
so tonight and into tomorrow morning. Winds will be gusty this
afternoon out of the west at 20-25 kts, and then remain breezy
overnight. LLWS possible this evening with up to 40-45 kt of
wind around 2000 ft.

Outlook: VFR prevails into the weekend with dry high pressure
over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2 PM Wed...After brief gales on the Gulf Stream earlier
today, gradient has relaxed and winds all areas in the 10-20 kt
range. Gradient inc a bit once again tonight, with general west
winds of 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Have removed Alligator
from SCA suite as unfavorable fetch here. Winds and seas
finally begin to relax Thu 10-20 kt as high pressure builds
over SECONUS eventually sliding off the coast first half of the
weekend. Better boating conditions expected Friday with NW winds
5-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. Moderate NNW surge late Thu night into
early Fri with uptick in winds 10-20 kt expected with seas
building 3-5 ft north of Hatteras, but remaining 2-4 ft south.
Sat night into Sun, swrly winds inc ahead of dry cold front,
with speeds of 15-25 kt and gusts to 30 kt possible, along with
seas building 6+ ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 2 PM Wed...Elevated Fire Weather conditions through this
week.

Warming trend through the week with high pressure in control.
A dry cold front will move through late Sunday, and another
front mid next week, though again should be mostly on the dry
side.

Downsloping flow on Thu continues the dry conditions, along with
warming temperatures. RH`s again fall into the upper 20s to
lower 30s percentile.

Friday and Saturday cont warm and dry, with highs reaching the
70 by Sat, and into the 70s on Sun.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for AMZ135-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for AMZ150-152-
     154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Thursday for AMZ230-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...TL
FIRE WEATHER...MHX