182
FXUS63 KMKX 250356 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
956 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 AM CST Tuesday
  morning for Lafayette and Green Counties. The dense fog may
  expand northeast into the rest of southern Wisconsin overnight
  into Tuesday.

- Low clouds and drizzle/light rain showers will spread through
  southern Wisconsin into Tuesday.

- Much colder and blustery for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.

- Active pattern with the potential for accumulating snow for
  the upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 956 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 AM CST Tuesday
morning for Lafayette and Green Counties, as visibility values
have ranged between 1/4 and 1/2 mile for the past few hours.
This should continue overnight into Tuesday morning, as winds
remain light in the boundary layer with near saturation per
forecast soundings. This dense fog may spread northeast across
the rest of southern Wisconsin overnight into Tuesday, until the
strong cold front pushes through. So, expansion of the Dense Fog
Advisory may occur.

Low stratus will also overspread the rest of the area overnight
and linger Tuesday, with pockets of light rain showers pushing
northeast through the area at times. There is weak warm air
advection in the low levels occurring into Tuesday, with the
saturated boundary layer. The best upward vertical motion and
rain chances would be toward central Wisconsin with better warm
air advection, and northern Illinois, where a 500 mb shortwave
trough will be moving through. This activity may improve
visibility values briefly, but this should not last long enough
to limit the dense fog potential.

The strong cold front will surge east through the area later
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with a band of showers
with it. Strong west southwest winds with strong cold air
advection will then occur Tuesday night into Wednesday, becoming
more northwest Wednesday afternoon and night. There should be
some snow showers that occur with the passing negatively tilted
shortwave trough to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday,
though the winds should just blow around anything that falls.
Much colder temperatures are then anticipated for Tuesday night
into the rest of the week and possibly longer.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Rest of Today through Wednesday:

We continue to expect low clouds and some fog as well as
mist/drizzle to push in over the next several hours though it
has bee much slower to push in than previously thought. It still
remains uncertain on how quickly this will occur but it at least
appears likely to happen at some point. The other uncertainties
more have to do with how impactful the fog will be once it moves
in. Some dense fog will be possible, especially overnight. In
addition some patches of light rain may push in as well, likely
due to the PVA from the weakening trough aloft, some WAA, with
enough midlevel moisture to support some showers. Regardless
drizzle and mist look to remain likely for much of the area
given the low level moisture and minor low level forcing.
However, southern WI still in large part expects to be missed by
the vast majority of the better forcing to the north and
southeast that would bring better rain amounts. We may be able
to expect some better rain chances in far southeast WI and
toward central WI later tonight into Tuesday morning.

As the warm front lifts through tonight we may dry out into
Tuesday, though drizzle will remain possible. We should also
expect to warm up a bit with southerly winds but clouds will
likely keep temperatures from escaping the low 50s. The cold
front will then be expected to swing through Tuesday
evening/night bringing the best chances (60-80%) for widespread
rain showers. With the surface low becoming fairly strong this
will help usher in some very chilly air by late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Given that we will still have the
surface low in the region with some TROWAL effect we could
easily see some snow on the backside of this system. In fact it
cannot be ruled out that we see some mild accumulations up to an
inch on the northern side of the CWA over the course of the day
Wednesday.

With a strong LLJ aloft, winds will significantly increase by
early Wednesday morning with afternoon wind gusts over the land
having potential to reach Wind Advisory criteria, especially
closer to the lake.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Wednesday night through Monday:

Winds will come down a bit Wednesday night as the LLJ weakens
and the low pushes further east but we expect to remain breezy
into Thursday. Given the continued breeziness and very cold
conditions ushered in by the cold front expect wind chills in
the single digits Thursday morning. Forecast 1000-500mb
thicknesses are expected to reach near 515dam from Thursday
morning through Friday morning. This will keep very chilly
temperatures through that period. Wind chills Friday morning
will also reach the single digits but that will largely be
because of cooler temperatures but weaker winds overall. Likely
less cloud cover Friday due to higher pressure overhead will
contribute to lower temperatures.

Into Saturday, attention quickly turns to the uncertainty in the
forecast of an upper level trough to the west and various
embedded disturbances that will play a substantial role in the
potential for an impactful winter system. Currently the
uncertainty is such that no discernible outlook would properly
encompass the situation as there is timing, phasing, and track
issues with this next system that each of which will greatly
change the impact of this system. Various models bring some
light snow ahead of the main system which brings largely rain
while other models suggest mostly snow, early arrival, and
substantial accumulation potential. While uncertainty is
massive, it remains something to keep an eye on as the impacts
could be significant if it trends toward a compact, panhandle
hook scenario that we remain on the cool side of. In addition
this impacts the forecast into early next week with substantial
temp differences within ensembles given the differences in the
development and progression of the upper low/trough over the
weekend.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 956 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Dense fog may spread northeast across most of southern
Wisconsin overnight into Tuesday, until the strong cold front
pushes through. Light south winds and moist low levels will help
to bring the fog, possibly down to 1/4 to 1/2 mile at times
overnight into Tuesday morning.

Low stratus around 200 to 500 feet AGL will also overspread the
rest of the area overnight and linger Tuesday, with pockets of
light rain showers pushing northeast through the area at times.
This activity may improve visibility values briefly, but this
should not last long enough to limit the dense fog potential.

The strong cold front will surge east through the area later
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with a band of showers
with it. Strong west southwest winds will then occur Tuesday
night into Wednesday, becoming more northwest Wednesday
afternoon and night. There should be some snow showers that
occur Tuesday night into Wednesday, though the winds should
just blow around anything that falls.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 956 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Southerly winds will decrease overnight, as the broadened low
pressure around 29.7 inches pushes over the western Great Lakes
region through Tuesday. Some fog may develop overnight into
Tuesday across the lake.

The low will strengthen to 29.6 inches as it tracks across
Minnesota Tuesday. The associated cold front surges across
southern Lake Michigan Tuesday night and shifts through northern
Lake Michigan Wednesday, as the low further deepens to 29.3
inches over eastern Lake Superior. The strong low will generally
maintain its strength as it crosses Ontario Wednesday night and
Quebec on Thursday.

Westerly gales will likely develop over southern Lake Michigan
early Wednesday morning and expand into the north half several
hours later. The westerly gales will become northwesterly
Wednesday night and persist into Thursday afternoon before
diminishing. It remains possible for some storm force gusts
Wednesday afternoon and night, and we cannot rule out a shorter-
fused Storm Warning. However, a Gale Watch remains in effect at
this time. This includes the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan.

Winds will diminish Friday, as high pressure of 30.5 inches
crosses the Midwest. Look for southerly winds to develop Sunday,
as low pressure develops over the western half of the country.
More gales will be possible this weekend into early next week.

Kuroski/Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory...WIZ067-WIZ068 until 10 AM Tuesday.

LM...Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM Wednesday to
     midnight Friday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ868...9 AM Wednesday to 3 AM Friday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 AM Wednesday to 6
     PM Thursday.

&&

$$

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