914
FXUS63 KMKX 020339
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1039 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder temps around or below freezing temps tonight.

- Rain chances (around 20-50%) return Sunday night with gusty
  winds. Best rain potential will be to the north of I-94 and
  US-18.

- High temperatures trending above normal through the first half
  of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1038 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The lingering drizzle and light rain has diminished and moved
southeast throughout the evening. The last of the rain is over
the southern portion of the lake, northern Illinois and
northwestern Indiana. The sfc meso low weaken significantly over
the last couple hours and is moving east into lower Michigan.
Sfc high pressure is quickly following on the heels of this low
which will keep skies clear and winds light allowing for
efficient cooling overnight. Skies have largely cleared already
apart from the far southern counties. Inland areas are likely
to have temps in the mid to upper 20s. The Kettle Moraine will
act a good natural barrier between some the colder temps west
and temps around 30 degrees and higher to the east. The closer
you are to Lake Michigan the closer overnight lows will be to
40.

There is a small chance for some fog to develop overnight for
those areas that received a bit of rain tonight which will be
largely limited to southeastern Wisconsin. Not anticipating any
dense fog to develop, but that will be the one thing to keep an
eye on. If fog becomes dense and temperatures fall below
freezing, especially the upper 20s or colder, there could be
some freezing fog on elevated sfc. So that will be one thing to
keep an eye on overnight. Confidence in this occuring is
moderate with the clouds clearing out a bit quicker than
anticipated.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 258 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Tonight through Sunday:

The upper-level trough continues to slowly move southward into
the Mid-Mississippi River Valley this evening while the surface
meso-low over Lake Michigan moves into the far southeastern part
of the Lake. As a result will see lingering drizzle and light
rain linger, but gradually diminish as forcing supporting this
activity shifts further south-southeast of the area through the
evening. Otherwise, expecting drier conditions to gradually
filter in overnight as surface high pressure works its way
across the region into Sunday morning. Also expecting clouds to
gradually clear overnight as well and will allow for temps to
dip into the 20s for inland areas west of the Kettle Moraine,
while areas along and east look to stay a bit warmer in the low
to mid 30s.

Sunday is looking dry and seasonal with highs climbing back
into 50s. expect winds to gradually pick up through the
afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens across WI as low
pressure tracks across Manitoba into Ontario through Sunday
evening.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 258 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Sunday Night through Saturday:

As the surface low deepens across Ontario overnight Sunday,
expect a cold front to drift across the Upper Midwest into
Monday. Paired with the southern edge of mid-level vorticity and
low-level WAA will be enough for another round of showers
mainly overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. However, the
better forcing along with a swath on increased PWATs exceeding
0.75 inches are progged for northern half of the state. Thus our
east central counties, north of I-94 will have the better
precipitation potential (>40%), while drier air is expected to
limit chances (<30%) for southern half of the CWA.

Conditions remain quiet later Monday into Tuesday as zonal flow
sets up aloft and high pressure works across the region. Expect
temps to warm back up to above normal through the the week.
Looking at daily highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. By midweek,
expect a more activity pattern to set up across the Midwest.
Long range models prog a series of upper-level shortwave troughs
to traverse the Central CONUS about every other day bring bouts
of PoPs and fluctuating temps/winds. However, as the waves work
their way across the area, the are trending on the warmer side,
which would limit any wintry type precip at this time.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1038 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Mostly clear skies tonight with a potential for fog to develop.
VFR to LIFR conditions will be possible tonight with visibilites
being the main concern. River valleys, low lying areas and those
that received rain this afternoon/evening will be the most
likely to see fog. Visibilites could range from 1/2 to 3 SM
overnight into Monday morning. Widespread dense fog is not
anticipated, but cant rule out some patchy dense, especially in
the river valleys. Anywhere fog gets dense there will be a
potential for some freezing fog on elevated surfaces ie: bridges
and overpasses. Any fog that develops will diminish shortly
after sunrise. VFR conditions are expected through the rest of
the period.

Light and variable winds are expected tonight and will become
westerly by Monday morning. Winds will continue to turn to
southwesterly by Monday afternoon and increase. Breezy southwest
winds with gusts of 30 MPH possible by Monday evening/night.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 258 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Weak meso-low pressure in far southeastern Lake Michigan will
linger through the evening before pushing into MI tonight. This
feature will be a focus for lingering waterspout potential
across the southern third of Lake Michigan until sunset.
Otherwise, high pressure is progged to work across the region
overnight into Sunday bringing lighter westerly winds. However,
a deepening low pressure is expected to track across Manitoba
and Ontario through the day Sunday this will bring increased
southwesterly winds across Lake Michigan Sunday afternoon. Thus
small craft advisory is expected across the nearshore Sunday
afternoon into Monday. As the low pressure tracks into the
Hudson Bay region winds, especially across the northern half of
Lake Michigan will continue to increase and expected to reach
gale force later Sunday afternoon and continue overnight into
early Monday morning. Thus, have upgrade to a Gale warning for
the northern half of the lake. Still cannot rule out a few gales
south of the current warning along the southwestern MI
lakeshore, but confidence is not high enough to expand that far
south at this time. Otherwise, gusty winds linger into Monday
morning before easing later Monday into Tuesday as another high
pressure is progged to move across the region.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868...3 PM Sunday to 6 AM Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...1 PM Sunday to 6 PM
     Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...1 PM Sunday to 10 AM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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