156
FXUS63 KMKX 191622
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1022 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chances (~10-20%) for rain on Thursday, particularly
  across the east.

- Temperatures hovering near or just above normal this weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1020 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

No major changes to the going forecast. Dry and quiet today with
highs in the 40s. Lows in the upper 30s to around 40 tonight,
with lingering stratus clouds preventing fog formation. High
temps lift to the low 50s (roughly 10 degrees above seasonal
norms) for Thursday, with lingering clouds and a light
southwest breeze. Slight chances (10-20%) for light rain on
Thursday, driven by the WAA aloft. Only a few hundredths of an
inch rainfall if applicable.

Sheppard

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 334 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Today and Tonight:

Clearing across east central and central Wisconsin this morning
has brought developing fog and low level stratus to the region.
The mid level clouds across south central, southwestern and far
southern Wisconsin is slowly eroding this morning which could
lead to further fog development overtime. As temperatures drop
below freezing and fog develops there will be a potential for
some freezing fog. Road temperatures over the last couple of
days have been in the upper 30s to low 40s which leads to
skepticism on how much road ways will be impacted by freezing
fog. Elevated sfcs that can be surround by colder air, like
bridges and over passes may have a few slick spots, but not
anticipating any widespread impacts. For freezing fog to occur
it will need to be dense as well with visibilities to a quarter
of an inch or less which is very patchy and sporadic at this
time.

A Dense Fog advisory has been issued for the northern two tiers
of counties as the areas of patchy fog are likely to expand
under the clear skies and light winds. Low lying areas with good
low level moisture are likely to see the fog earlier, think
river valleys and marshes. Lake shore areas are likely to be
spared from any freezing fog as Lake Michigan is insulting
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. The long and short is to
have extra caution when driving this morning, especially on
bridges and overpasses, not only for the potential for slick
spots, but also for the low visibilities.

High pressure that is overhead early this morning will drift
east today reaching the central lower mitten of Michigan by this
afternoon. Winds will increase as the high pulls away mid to
late morning. Fog will likely rise and burn off prior to this as
the sun rises, but any increase in the winds (even if its only a
couple kts) will just help further.Low stratus and mid level
clouds are likely to persist through the day. So while it will
be dry, overcast skies are expected.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 334 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Thursday through Tuesday:

Looking at a bit more active pattern for the end of the week as
southern WI will sit between two upper-level shortwave troughs.
First one is progged trek across central Canadian while clipping
the Upper Great Lakes region. The associated surface low with this
system will remain well north of the area and works its way
across Hudson Bay while dragging a weak cold front across the
Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front will see southerly winds build
in through the morning Thursday and result in milder temps
creeping back into the 50s before the cold front pushes through.
Still thinking this will mainly be a dry frontal passage as
moisture is trap further south, while the upper-level dynamics set
up north of southern WI. While cannot rule of maybe some
sprinkles mainly north of I-94, overall will run with a dry
forecast. Colder airmass will attempt to push in overnight
bringing upper 20s to mid 30s lows, but may be held up by the
approaching shortwave trough/low from the southern Plains.

The second of shortwave trough glancing southern WI will lift up
from the southern Plains overnight Thursday and into the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley into Friday. The associated low with this
trough is progged to stay south and track up the Ohio River
Valley. While there is a bit more favorable dynamics/forcing to
clip southern WI capable of producing some precip on the north
side of the passing low, the mid-range models are trending the
better forcing to stay south of the WI/IL border. So will see how
if this trend continues and if so could see a drier forecast.

For the weekend will have near normal temps as high pressure works
its way across the region for Saturday. Then looking at another low
and trough to track well to the north of WI across central Canada
with another cold front pushing through the area. Again long range
models a trending dry with the late weekend frontal passage. Temps
will trend above normal Sunday into the beginning of next week. Also
looking at a bit more of a progressive pattern heading into the
holiday week. However the 500mb cluster analysis favors more of a
split flow regime across the central CONUS, which hints at much of
the precip to skirt around southern WI.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1020 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

This morning`s fog has largely cleared out and will continue to
lift. That said, low stratus cloud cover is encroaching from the
southwest and should overtake the region over the next several
hours based on the latest model guidance. Hence, a brief window
of VFR for most areas through late this morning, followed by
MVFR ceilings this afternoon into Tonight. Guidance suggests
these ceilings may lower to Fuel Alt MVFR (included in the TAFs)
or even IFR levels Tonight into early Thursday morning, but on
the bright side, these same clouds will prevent fog formation.
Light and variable winds expected today and tonight.

A light southwesterly breeze takes over on Thursday, with
lingering clouds and slight chances (10-20%) for a trace of
light rainfall / sprinkles. MVFR ceilings appear likely to
linger through Thursday, especially west of the Kettle Moraine
hills.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 334 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Light northeast to northwest winds are expected early this morning
as high pressure of 30.2 inches moves into Wisconsin. This high
will move east across the central portion of the lake late this
morning bringing a period of light and variable winds. By this
afternoon/evening south to southeast winds are expected behind the
exiting high and ahead of a low pressure system of 29.6 inches
developing in Manitoba. This low will deepen to near 29.5 inches
over the Hudson Bay by Thursday afternoon. The low development and
progression will result in a southwest wind shift across Lake
Michigan, with winds becoming gusty late Thursday morning and
afternoon. Highest gusts are expected over the northern third of
the waters, where 20-25 kt readings are currently forecast. Gales
are not expected, though trends will continue to be monitored. A
cold front will cross the waters Thursday night, resulting in
northwest winds Friday into Saturday morning.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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