Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
983 FXUS63 KMKX 132105 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the remainder of the week then return to near normal for early next week. - Chance of rain (35 to 45%) Mon night. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 305 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Tonight through Friday night: A mid level cloud deck is making its way across southern WI this afternoon. It is associated with 700mb warm air advection and coincident moisture. The back edge is expected to clear out from west to east between 6pm and midnight. With a weak pressure gradient over the area and clearing skies, winds will decouple quickly this evening. Increasing southwest winds with warm air advection just above the surface should keep the surface temperatures from plummeting, so raised the minT a degree or two above the precip forecast. Lows in the 33 to 36 degree range tonight, warmer near the lakeshore and cooler toward north central WI. The warm air advection will continue into Friday, and with upstream temps over-achieving today, I leaned toward higher end of guidance for highs over southern WI tomorrow. Highs should be in the lower to mid 60s, coolest toward Sheboygan. Winds will be out of the south, but less than 15 mph. A low pressure trough approaching from the Northern Plains will strengthen as it crosses Lake Superior, MN and WI Friday evening. A period of lower clouds is expected with the warm air advection Friday evening, but with no rain. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 305 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Saturday through Thursday: The surface cold front will slide southeast through WI on Saturday, crossing srn WI midday. There will be clouds, but the chance for precip continues to diminish since low level moisture is not sufficient. Temps ahead of the front should be in the lower 60s if clouds do not arrive early. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind this cold front, along with cold air advection. Lows Sat night will be back down in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The cold advection will ease Sunday as high pressure approaches, so temps should rebound into the mid to upper 40s, although northwest winds will be brisk. Our next chance for rain, or a rain-snow mix, will occur Monday evening through Tuesday. This would be associated with a low- amplitude shortwave trough crossing the center of the country. Many model solutions barely clip southern WI with the precip and keep it mainly in IL. The chance is decreasing slightly, down to 35 to 45%. There is no strong cold air advection here, so the chance for snow is even lower than it is for rain. A more amplified system will cross the Central Plains on Thursday and could bring our next bigger chance for rain Thursdaythrough Friday. There is still a lot of uncertainty about how far north the precip would get though. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 305 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 A mid level cloud deck with bases around 11,000 ft AGL will continue to slide across southern WI this afternoon. The back edge is expected to exit from west to east between 6 pm and midnight. Otherwise, expect clear skies until Friday afternoon. Mid level clouds will increase Friday afternoon and evening as low pressure approaches from then Northern Plains. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 305 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 High pressure over the mid Atlantic States will continue to exit tonight as a low pressure trough approaches from the Northern Plains. Winds will become southerly Friday and increase Friday night. The low will strengthen as it crosses Lake Superior Saturday morning. West to northwest gales are looking more likely later Saturday into Sunday behind the low and associated cold front. The gales look lower-end, below 40 kt, and would be along the east half of Lake Michigan. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee