003
FXUS63 KMKX 100810
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
310 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light, scattered shower chances (30-70%) with a few rumbles of
  thunder return to southern WI late through late morning and
  may linger in southeast WI into this afternoon.

- Slightly above average temperatures over the next several days
  with highs peaking in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 310 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Today through Saturday:

Broken, north-to-south oriented lines of showers with a few
thunderstorms will cross southern WI through late morning.
These are associated with 925-850mb warm air advection with some
added lift from upper divergence with an upper jet. A subtle
mid level shortwave is allowing for steep mid level lapse rates
and therefore just enough elevated instability (up to 400 j/kg)
for a few taller storms that can achieve lightning in southern
WI. The stronger forcing is over Iowa and will remain to our
south this morning. As the better forcing splits to our north
and south, the showers may diminish before they reach southeast
WI.

A robust mid level shortwave trough will cross Lake Superior
today. Ahead of this trough, the low level jet is expected ramp
up over southeast WI later this morning. Gusty south- southwest
winds up to 25 mph with a few gusts up to 30 mph are likely for
a few hours in the middle of the day. Cloud cover and light
showers should delay our warm up, but highs will be in the
lower 70s west of Madison this afternoon.

The main surface trough/cold front will eventually cross
southern WI late this afternoon. Expect a period of breezy
northerly winds toward the lakeshore counties this evening as
cold air advection allows for mixing. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure moves back into the Upper Midwest.
With inland areas clearing and becoming calm early in the night,
lows should be around 40, with a few of the typical cold spots
in the upper 30s.

Saturday will feature sunshine, light winds for inland areas,
and highs in the 60s. Near the lake, north-northeast winds will
continue to be breezy due to mixing, and cloud cover may linger
into the early afternoon there.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 310 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025


Saturday Night through Thursday:

Synopsis: Upper ridging will progress across the western Great Lakes
Saturday night through Sunday, supporting partly cloudy skies &
slightly above normal high temperatures across southern Wisconsin.
An upper trough will eject into the Northern Plains Sunday
afternoon, reaching the Hudson Bay by Monday afternoon. Attendant
surface cyclogenesis is forecast beneath the ejecting trough, with
the developing surface low progged to reach northern Ontario by
Monday evening. The advancing low will pull a cold front through
southern Wisconsin Monday afternoon and evening. Shower and
isolated thunderstorm chances thus return to the forecast
Sunday evening through Monday. Surface high pressure will build
in from the Northern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, supporting
dry conditions during the middle part of next week. Rain
potential may return Wednesday night through Thursday, though
high amounts of uncertainty remain in available forecast
guidance.

Sunday Night through Monday: Shower and isolated thunder chances
return to southern Wisconsin in response to increasing upper
divergence and low-level warm advection ahead of the Northern
Plains upper trough. Current forecast depicts the greatest
precipitation potential (~20-40% chances) Sunday evening and
night, when the aforementioned forcing mechanisms will be
focused over southern Wisconsin. Will also need to monitor for
lingering rain chances into the daytime hours Monday when the
primary cold front crosses the area, though any lingering
potential will be heavily influenced by the timing of the
frontal passage and cloud cover. Overnight timing of the best
precip potential, in addition to lingering clouds through the
day Monday, currently translate to weak (if any) CAPE in medium-
range forecast guidance. Thus anticipate hazards to remain
minimal in the Sunday/Monday batch of rain and thunder, but
will nevertheless continue to monitor trends.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Medium-range ensembles hint at the
potential for another batch of rain as an upper right entrance
region crosses the western Great Lakes. Despite broad agreement on
the upper right entrance region passage, individual ensemble members
and deterministic model runs remain in disagreement over the
precise evolution of the feature, in addition to the timing of
its passage. It`s thus difficult to offer specifics regarding
preferred timing and locations for precip at this time, with
trends continuing to be monitored in coming forecasts.

Quigley

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 310 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

An upper disturbance will approach from the Northern Plains
early this morning, resulting in an area of light showers
tracking across southern WI. Showers may diminish before they
reach southeast WI around 12Z. Ceilings are expected to remain
VFR, with bases down to 4000 ft at times in the showers until
midday. An increasing low level jet will support chances for
LLWS through mid morning. A cold front will cross southern
Wisconsin this afternoon, resulting in a gusty west- northwest
wind shift by late afternoon. Cloud cover will decrease behind
the front. Expect elevated winds to linger near the lake this
evening, with diminishing winds inland at sunset.

Quigley/Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 310 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A cold front will progress into the Upper Mississippi River Valley
early this morning, resulting in increasing southerly winds
through late morning across the open waters. Southerlies will
become particularly gusty following sunrise, when widespread 25-30
knot readings are forecast. Gusts will be strongest over the
northern third of Lake Michigan, where a few gales will be
possible between ~7 AM to 1 PM CDT. Any such gusts will be brief,
with conditions not expected to be widespread enough to warrant
Gale Warnings.

The aforementioned cold front will cross the waters this
afternoon, resulting in a northwest wind shift. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the frontal
passage, with severe weather not expected. Breezy north-northwest
winds will continue tonight, gradually tapering during the day
Saturday high pressure moves across Lake Michigan. Winds will
turn out of the southeast Sunday, when low pressure is forecast
to form over the northern Great Plains. The low will advance
toward the Hudson Bay by Monday evening, dragging a cold front
across Lake Michigan in the process. Additional showers and
isolated thunderstorms will accompany the passing front, with
severe weather not expected at this time.

Gusty winds will result in Small Craft Advisory conditions in
nearshore zones today into this evening as a cold front crosses the
region. Winds will taper during the day Saturday. Southeast winds
will become breezy once again Sunday as low pressure forms in the
northern Great Plains. Additional Small Craft Advisories are
possible.

Quigley/Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 1 AM Saturday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Friday.

&&

$$

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