939
FXUS63 KMKX 100948
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
348 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect early this morning
  for lake effect snow in eastern Racine and Kenosha counties,
  as well as far southeastern Milwaukee county. The lake effect
  snow is capable of rapid accumulation and visibility dropouts.

- Flurries / very light snowfall possible after midnight tonight
  through late Tuesday morning. Currently only forecasting a 20%
  chance of light accumulations (few tenths of an inch), though
  we`re likely to see at least some flurries.

- Temperatures return to near normal mid-week and are trending
  above normal for the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 350 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Today through Tuesday:

A band of heavy lake effect snow is impacting eastern Racine,
eastern Kenosha, and far southeastern Milwaukee counties at the
moment, producing dropouts in visibility and rapid
accumulations. Exactly how long this band lingers is not fully
certain, but high-res models have a solid consensus that it
will push out over Lake Michigan around 6 AM CST.

Strong high pressure over the central Great Plains continues
southeastward and weakens this morning, with the corresponding
surface pressure ridge axis passing overhead and winds turning
from NNW to NW and eventually due West into Tonight, subsiding
after dark. This will push the lake effect snow band further
away, leading to dry weather with partly cloudy skies and highs
in the mid 30s today.

Overnight into Tuesday morning, the upper level trough moves east
and clear of the Great Lakes region, allowing ferocious 850-700mb
WAA to arrive. The WAA will force mid-level ascent, with clouds
expected to thicken late tonight. Between 2 AM CST Tuesday and mid
day Tuesday, this WAA would have the potential to cause light
snowfall, though forecast soundings indicate plenty of dry air
beneath the cloud bases, which could take several hours to
overcome. We`ve included slight chances in the forecast for
this snow to cause minimal accumulations, though we`re likely to
see at least some flurries. Gusty southwesterly winds kick in
after dawn Tuesday, boosting surface temps above freezing around
9 to 10 AM CST. By around Noon CST Tuesday, any lingering
precip chances would be `rain only`. Daytime highs in the low
40s expected.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 350 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Tuesday night through Sunday:

Nwly flow aloft will prevail through Thu. A weak cold frontal
passage with a wind shift to wnwly will occur Tue nt with brisk
winds continuing through Wed. This is in response to strong low
pressure tracking from Ontario into srn Quebec. Overall though a
warming trend will continue through the week. A large upper trough
will then move into the wrn USA Thu nt with upper ridging
shifting from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes. At the
surface, a lee side trough will develop and move out into the
Great Plains and eventually through WI as a cold front late Sat nt
and Sun. 50% chance of showers are forecast for the end of the
week into Sun at this time.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 350 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

The band of heavy lake effect snow over far southeastern WI is
expected to drift east out over Lake Michigan under the
influence of northwesterly winds (roughly 6 AM CST, though the
exact exit time remains uncertain). KENW and KRAC are expected
to experience LIFR visibility and reduced ceilings until the
band exits.

Afterwards, dry weather expected today, with periods of
scattered to broken VFR cloud cover. Gusty northwest winds
continue, turning due west and decelerating this evening. From
predawn Tuesday morning through mid day Tuesday, there is some
potential (~20%) for light accumulating snow, though it will
have to fight dry air in the low levels and may not reach the
ground. This would be accompanied by overcast VFR ceilings,
though any snow (if applicable) could easily drop visibility to
MVFR.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 350 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Strong high pressure of 30.7 inches over the central Great Plains
will continue southeastward today, weakening to 30.5 inches and
arriving at the Gulf coast by tonight. The pressure gradient
between this system and departing low pressure over the
northeastern CONUS remains strong at the moment, driving 25 to 35
knot north winds over the lake. A Gale Warning remains in effect
until 6 AM CST this morning for the southern half of the lake,
after which the winds will turn northwest and remain gusty (just
below Gale Force, but a few gusts to Gale Force remain possible),
turning due west and subsiding for a brief period late tonight.

Potential for a waterspout or two will remain in place today,
along with bands of heavy lake effect snow. Lake effect snow
and waterspout potential subside into Tonight.

Winds turn southwest and accelerate into Tuesday, as a trough of
low pressure around 29.4 inches sags south into Ontario Canada.
Southwest gales are looking likely Tuesday over the south half of
the lake. Winds turn west and remain gusty Tuesday night into
Wednesday as low pressure tracks east through Ontario Canada and
drags a cold front across the lake. These winds may also approach
or reach gale force. Lighter winds expected Thursday as weak high
pressure moves through the region.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 6 AM
     Monday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
     LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 6 AM
     Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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