053
FXUS63 KMKX 110311
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
911 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light, scattered snowfall expected (10-20% chance) after
  midnight tonight through midday Tuesday. A trace to a couple
  tenths of an inch of accumulation are possible.

- Temperatures warm through the week and are trending above
  normal for the end of the week.

- Chances (30 to 50 percent) for showers and thunderstorms
  develop over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 911 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

As the weak warm front across western Wisconsin, northeast Minnesota
and eastern Iowa moves through this evening and into the overnight
hours the skies of November will turn gloomy. Thankfully little is
expected to happen. Dew point depressions are on the order of 10 to
15 which will result in virga from all that remains of this weak
front. Even the areas under the stronger 40 Dbz returns in north
central Minnesota seem to remain dry as the low dewpoints win out.
For this reason knocked POPs down roughly 10 % through the overnight
hours. Later at night when temperatures fall, the dew point
depressions will diminish and may allow for some flurries to sneak
through. Otherwise no major changes to the forecast.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 354 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Increasing clouds tonight with lows in the low 20s and
northwesterly winds diminishing and becoming southwesterly by
Tuesday morning as a weak warm front lifts west to east across
southern Wisconsin. Along this frontal feature, expect light
snow showers to develop. Very dry air in the low levels will
prevent the majority of snow from reaching the surface; but
still expecting at least general coverage of 15-30 percent
through the overnight hours into Tuesday morning. Any lingering
precipitation will move offshore into Lake Michigan by midday,
with highs reaching the low 40s in the afternoon hours. Gusty
southwest winds will develop behind the line of snow showers,
with gusts to 25 mph expected throughout the day. Winds become
less gusty and shift to westerly overnight Tuesday as low
pressure pushes southeastward into the eastern Great Lakes
region.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 354 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Wednesday through Monday:

Northwesterly winds dominate Wednesday as low pressure continues
to spin over the eastern Great Lakes region, with gusts around
25 mph expected once again. Thursday, winds shift to
southeasterly as high pressure over the Southeast U.S. and low
pressure developing in the Canadian Rockies strengthen the
pressure gradient across the Midwest. This will bring a return
to temperatures in the upper 50s to even low 60s Friday into the
weekend. Low pressure is expected to swing southeastward
through the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday, bringing the
next chances for precipitation (30-50 percent) and perhaps even
a few thunderstorms. As low pressure exits to the southwest,
expect cooler temperatures to return early next week. A few
showers may linger across southern Wisconsin into Monday as
final shortwaves wrapping around the departing low traverse
through the western Great Lakes.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 911 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

MVFR to VFR conditions are expected through the period. There
are small pockets of MVFR conditions with ceilings around 2-3
kft. These lower ceilings will be along and ahead of an
approaching weak warm front. Dry air at the surface should keep
ceilings from lowering further and prevent any flurries from
reaching the ground. There are light returns on radar along this
frontal boundary which will move east into southern Wisconsin
overnight. Despite this there are little to no reports of any of
these flurries reaching the ground. the frontal boundary is
expected to clear our forecast area mid to late Tuesday morning.
Once the front has passed, ceilings will come back up to around
10-15 kft.

Northwest winds will weaken tonight and become southwesterly behind
the front. By late Tuesday morning, southwest winds will increase
becoming gusty with gusts of 25 to 28 kts expected (28 to 32 MPH).
Winds will remain elevated through the evening hours Tuesday before
shifting to become westerly and diminishing during the late
overnight hours.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 354 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A band of lake effect snow will continue across portions of the
eastern shore of Lake Michigan into this evening, with isolated
waterspouts remaining possible.

High pressure will continue to slide southeastward through
Texas toward the Southeast U.S. tonight, while low pressure continues
off the New England coast. Expect continued northwesterly winds
into tonight, before winds shift southwesterly overnight into
Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 9 PM CST
tonight for continued gusty winds. Another low pressure system
will progress into northern Ontario on Tuesday, bringing a warm
front across the open waters and producing southwesterly gales
Tuesday afternoon and evening. A Gale Warning is in effect for
this time frame. In the nearshore regions, only isolated gales
are expected and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from
Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening. Winds shift
northwesterly into Wednesday morning as this low progresses into
the eastern Great Lakes region. Winds may briefly approach
gales again Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Lighter
winds expected Thursday as weak high pressure moves through the
region.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
     LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...noon Tuesday to 9 PM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 AM
     Tuesday to 9 PM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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