564
FXUS63 KMKX 040842
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
242 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal today, roughly 60
  degrees.

- Rain chances (~50-80%) returning to all of southern Wisconsin
  Thursday night into Friday.

- Becoming even cooler Friday into this weekend, with additional
  precip chances (~40-60%) arriving Saturday into Sunday. Some
  accumulating snow can`t be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 245 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Today through Wednesday night:

Generally quiet weather expected over the next few days with
high pressure lingering in the region today will push out as a
low pressure system develops in north central US pushing east.
This will turn winds from the west to the south over the course
of the day today. This is expected to be a dry system on our
end with any precip chances remaining well to the north due
primarily to low level dry air. Now it should be mentioned that
there is a strip of moisture with the WAA regime and LLJ that
suggests shallow cloud depth showers developing, especially
across the eastern parts of the CWA, but the low level dry air
and lack of substantial cloud depth suggests this may come off
as virga at best given the very dry low levels. A bit more
cloud cover is expected today but otherwise expected to warm up
again but mixing will be less impactful with low RH again
(particularly to the southwest) but winds will be weaker aloft
so surface winds will be lighter. No fire weather concerns
expected.

Tuesday night the front with the surface low will swing through
bringing fairly significant CAA behind it with some decent
pressure gradient. This should make Wednesday a bit breezy from
the northwest though remaining mostly clear for much of the day.
Temperatures will cool a bit Wednesday but this will mostly
impact overnight lows that will get down to the upper 20s to low
30s. Quiet weather expected Wednesday and Wednesday night

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 245 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Thursday through Monday:

Quiet weather to start Thursday as a low pressure system builds
in from the north central US. Breezy south to southwest winds
would be expected by Thursday evening as the pressure gradient
tightens across the CWA. Precip chances will increase into the
evening as well as the low to mid levels moisten up with strong
LLJ and WAA. There will be weak troughing aloft which will
supply some PVA forcing but in large part this event will be
driven by LLJ/WAA.

Now there are some failure points with this system; for one
there looks like there still may be some concerns for a phasing
system that could change the overall development of this system,
but the other concern is when and how quickly moisture builds
in, particularly at 700mb. Moisture at 850mb looks to be just
fine throughout this event and by itself may at least bring some
light rain. But the precip chances with this event seems
somewhat over-reliant on 850mb WAA, especially with models in
disagreement on 700mb moisture, how quickly it builds in, if at
all, and whether it can also overcome the low level dry air seen
in models as well. This is particularly true further west and
less so further east where it appears moisture fields may come
together a bit better later Thursday night. While precip is
still expected across most of the CWA there are some legitimate
concerns with how well this is being modeled right now and over
the next day or so I would imagine we will have a better handle
on how this situation will unravel.

The surface low and upper level trough will push out Friday into
Saturday with quiet whether for the most part, though likely
remaining cloudy and perhaps a bit breezy, particularly Friday.
However, we expect another and likely more impactful system,
to push through Saturday/Saturday night. This will come from a
weak low pressure system developing in the Central Plains and
swinging through the lower Midwest. There is plenty of
uncertainty with this system and its potential to impact
southern WI. The primary uncertainty is with the track as that
will determine what we see as this is a narrow system where
slight shifts in the track may yield little to nothing to
several inches of snow. However, this system looks like to pack
a punch for somewhere given strong PVA aloft, plenty of moisture
and a fairly strong region of Fgen likely to come with this. In
addition this system will be on the colder side, straddling the
540 thickness line. The timing of this is also very important as
a nighttime arrival would suggest more snow potential than a
daytime arrival. The current track has the impact largely
Saturday night and if the system tracks a certain way several
inches of snow would be possible across parts of southern WI. We
will be paying quite a bit of attention to this system as it
will be our first chance for accumulating snow for this season.

Weather looks a bit quieter and cooler heading into early next
week as fairly strong high pressure slides southwest of the CWA.
Things get a bit more interesting into Tuesday but models
generally keep things dry.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 245 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Partly cloudy skies an perhaps even some virga today (primarily
eastern parts of WI), but overall expected to remain VFR
throughout the day with modest winds turning from west to south
over the course of the day.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 245 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

High pressure of 30.4 inches moves into the Mid Atlantic
states today. As the high pushes out winds will turn back
southerly ahead of the next low pressure system developing in
the north central US. Winds will become breezy Tuesday night as
the low pressure system around 29.7 inches pushes into the
western Great Lakes region. Cannot rule out a few gales in the
southern half of the lake tonight. This low will cross the Lake
Wedensday morning and turn winds to northwesterly. Northwest
winds will become gusty Wednesday afternoon/evening behind the
exiting low. Currently we could expect to see a few gales
Wednesday but will be fairly short-lived in term of timeframe,
but a Gale Warning may be needed. Small Craft Advisory is in
effect this evening through Wednesday for winds and
intermittently high waves. Northwest winds decelerate Wednesday
night as high pressure passes just south of the lake.

As high pressure tracks east and a more robust low pressure
around 29.4 inches approaches from the Dakotas through the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan, breezy south winds develop on Thursday,
peaking Thursday night with gales possible for a period. The
passage of the cold front may then lead to gusty northwest
winds Friday with gales possible here as well. Small Craft
Advisory would likely be needed for Thursday night into Friday
for at least a period.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM
     Tuesday to 6 PM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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