910
FXUS63 KMKX 291640 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1040 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow, heavy at times, will persist today through tonight. The
  heaviest rates and travel impacts are expected from late this
  morning through this evening. A Winter Storm Warning is in
  effect.

- Blowing snow is a concern on Sunday as winds pick up behind
  the departing system.

- Below normal temperatures and a few chances for additional
  snow expected through the coming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1039 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

After looking through the bulk of 12Z guidance this morning, it
appears that the winter storm is on track for today and tonight.
No significant changes to the the expected liquid equivalent
totals, snow to liquid rations, and resultant snow totals.
Models are initializing the surface low position over eastern
Kansas well this morning, with the low expected to be centered
right around Chicago by midnight tonight. This keeps southern
Wisconsin in a good spot for persistent snowfall accumulations
through tonight.

The most impactful snowfall with this storm is still expected to
be this afternoon and evening. The best round warm air
advection and frontogenesis will lift through southern
Wisconsin during this period, with snowfall rates likely hitting
at least an inch an hour at times. Lake enhancement will keep
the higher rates going in the east into tonight, with continued
good agreement among most models of higher QPF totals there.
Already seeing several reports of accidents this morning and
travel will be most difficult this afternoon into tonight as the
heavier snow moves through.

Overall, it looks like southern Wisconsin is still on track for
a widespread 8 to 12 inches, with some higher amounts possible
in some locations along and east of the Kettle Moraine.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 220 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Today through Sunday:

Snow is overspreading the region from the southwest this
morning. This will continue over the next several hours as warm
advection and upper level lift increase across the area.
Snow may be just a touch later to arrive in east central
Wisconsin, but rates will pick up by mid morning.

Overall forecast expectations have not changed much over the
last 12 hours. The heaviest snowfall rates will occur late this
morning through this evening, with embedded, transient bands of
1"/hr rates moving across the area. Lake enhancement is also
still expected for those areas adjacent to Lake Michigan.

Snow will end Sunday morning from west to east, with storm total
amounts generally between 8 and 12 inches for most of the area,
with the chances of realizing the higher amounts greatest
across the east, where lake enhancement will be in play. Travel
conditions will be hazardous, particularly this afternoon into
tonight.

Heading into Sunday, blowing snow is looking like an increasing
concern, with northwest winds gusting between 20 and 30 MPH at
times. Depending on how the forecast evolves later today into
tonight, it`s possible that a Winter Weather Advisory for
blowing snow may be needed on Sunday.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 220 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Sunday night through Friday:

A wnwly flow aloft will prevail for the new week as a large upper
low will reside over Hudson Bay into nrn Quebec, while mean
shortwave troughing will be in the vicinity of the Desert SW with
an upstream upper ridge in the ern Pacific Ocean. Srn WI will be
between or near a series of shortwave troughs in the flow for the
week, with chances (20-40%) for snow at times. At the surface,
polar high pressure and cold temps are expected for Mon-Tue AM
followed by swly winds and warm advection Tue afternoon into Wed
AM. A Canadian cold front will then pass late Wed afternoon or
night with cold advection and wnwly sfc winds into Thu. Another
approaching sfc trough from Canada will then bring a return of
swly winds and warm advection for later Thu into Fri. High temps
will range from the upper teens to 20s for the week with lows in
the single digits most nights.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1039 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Widespread light to moderate snow continues across southern WI
this morning. Looking at a quarter inch per hour to just above
half inch per hour snow rates with visibility ranging from 1/4
sm to 1 sm. Will continue to see conditions deteriorate through
the late morning and afternoon as ceilings continue to fall to
IFR/LIFR levels (below 1kft) and snow rates increase closer to 1
inch per hour rates. Will see these snow rates spread from the
southwest to the northeast through the evening, but areas along
the lakeshore (MKE and ENW) may see periodic bouts of higher
snow rates and lower flight conditions at times late this
morning and early afternoon before the low pressure lifts in
bringing a more consistent LIFR and higher snow rates through
the evening. Highest snow rates and greatest accumulations will
continue through the evening but gradually lessen from the
southwest to the northeast after 03z while lingering the longest
along the lakeshore through around 06z. Then light to moderate
snow returns overnight and lingers into Sunday morning before
gradually diminishing after daybreak.

As for winds seeing east-southeasterly late this morning, but
will begin to pick up with gusts of 20-25kt for a couple of
hours and shift more southerly for southeastern WI and east
northeast for areas north of I-94 later this afternoon and
evening as the low pressure skirts south of the WI/IL. Overnight
winds will back to the northwest an increase through early
Sunday morning and through the afternoon with gusts of 20-25 kt.
With these two windows for gustier winds and snow a bit more on
the fluffier side, can expect some blowing/drifting snow
impacts as well, even as the snowfall ends.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 220 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Winds will increase from the southeast this morning as low
pressure around 29.8 inches tracks across KS to the south tip of
Lake Michigan into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for both increasing winds and building waves. For the open
waters, there will be a brief six hour window of south to
southeasterly gales late this afternoon and early evening for
the southern third of the lake. Winds will weaken below gales as
the low pressure passes the southern tip of Lake Michigan
overnight Saturday. Stronger northwesterly winds will then
develop Sunday into Sunday evening and may reach gale force as
the strengthening low pressure area moves away. Thus a Gale
Watch is in effect for Sunday and Sunday evening for the entire
open lake. High pressure will then build in later Sunday into
the start of next week with light winds.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
     WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
     WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 6
     AM Sunday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ876-LMZ878...3
     PM Saturday to 9 PM Saturday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM Sunday to 7 PM
     Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 11 PM
     Sunday.

&&

$$

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