Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
556 FXUS63 KMKX 200908 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 308 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog expected to continue through the early morning hours, lifting after sunrise. A few pockets of dense fog (1/4 mile or less) are possible in southwestern Wisconsin. - Areas of drizzle (10-20% chances) are expected through much of the day, lowering visibilities at times. - Temperatures hovering near or just above normal this weekend into early next week. - More active pattern with a cooling trend Wednesday and Thursday (Thanksgiving) next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 308 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Today through tonight: Main concern through the early morning hours is fog development across southwestern to far south-central Wisconsin. Patchy dense fog has developed across Lafayette, Green, and Rock Counties, with a Special Weather Statement in effect for 1/2 to 1/4 mile visibilities through 8 AM CST this morning. Pockets of drizzle continuing over southeastern Wisconsin are keeping visibilites higher in the 1-3 mile range, with visibilities along lake Michigan remaining at 4-5 miles. Fog will lift after sunrise this morning, with areas of drizzle expected to continue throughout the day (visibilities lowered within these drizzle patches), tapering off from north to south into the overnight hours. High temperatures today will remain in the 40s, with surface WAA battling low clouds and drizzle. Some models have temperatures reaching the 50s, while others keep temperatures as low as 40 degrees through the afternoon. Thinking that WAA will at least serve to bring in highs in the mid-40s, but the wide spread of temperature values may require updates through the day today. Tonight, as drizzle tapers off and low clouds exit behind a cold front, expect temperatures to fall into the upper 30s near Lake Michigan, mid-30s inland, and low 30s in southwestern Wisconsin. MH && .LONG TERM... Issued 308 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Friday through Thursday: Overall looking mostly dry with near normal temps Friday through the weekend. The drier trend continues for Friday as the shortwave trough flattens and keeps the more favorable synoptic lift and surface low along with moisture south of WI. Will be slightly cooler with north winds Friday while high pressure gradually builds across the Upper Midwest overnight through Saturday. Another weak, dry cold front is progged to quickly move through the area overnight Saturday, but will mostly be a wind shift followed by another passing surface high through the day Sunday. Will begin to see an upper-level ridge begin to build in for the start of next week and warm things up a bit through Monday. However, 500mb cluster model analysis continue to hint a longwave trough to dig across the central CONUS Tuesday through midweek, which may bring a bout of precip to the Upper Midwest region. Latest long range model guidance favor a mild pattern for the start of the week, thus looking mostly like any precip would be rain at this time. And looking further ahead toward the Thanksgiving holiday, there is a persisting signal for things cool down, with potential for below normal temps for the second half of the week. Still several days out and there will be plenty of changes with next week`s system as uncertainty remains high given hints of phasing mid-level troughs. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 308 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 A mix of drizzle and fog has reduced visibilities across the majority of southern Wisconsin, with near lakeshore visibilities falling to around 4 SM, inland terminals between 2 and 3 SM, and far southwestern Wisconsin (Iowa, Lafayette, and Green Counties) seeing visibilities between 1/2 and 1/4 mile. Fog will gradually lift after sunrise this morning as southwesterly breezes begin (around 8 kt), but areas of drizzle are expected to continue to lower visibilities through the morning hours. Ceilings will gradually recover into MVFR into the late afternoon and evening hours as drizzle will tapers off from north to south. A cold front will shift winds to northwesterly overnight, and will bring a return to VFR conditions into Friday morning. MH && .MARINE... Issued 308 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 High pressure will remain over the eastern Great Lakes through today, while low pressure progresses eastward through northern Ontario and deepens in the Hudson Bay overnight tonight. Expect light southwesterly winds to develop this morning, becoming breezy this afternoon and evening. Winds shift to become northwesterly and diminish overnight as a cold front from this low progresses eastward across the Lake. Light northwest winds continue through Friday, becoming light and variable Saturday as weak high pressure passes over the lake. Winds will become southwesterly again Saturday night into Sunday, and westerly by Sunday night as an additional low pressure system deepens across the Hudson Bay and brings another weak cold front through the Lake. MH && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee