535
FXUS63 KMKX 071611
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1011 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snowfall will be possible again Monday night into Tuesday and
  Tuesday night into Wednesday, though this second system may
  see rain mix in. Any rain that falls could initially cause
  slick spots on roads given cold road temperatures.

- Additional rounds of snowfall are then possible through the
  end of the work week, but confidence in timing is much lower.

- Below normal temperatures continue through next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1011 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Snow has exited southern Wisconsin this morning, with northerly
winds increasing as clouds exit more slowly to the south. A
period of clear skies is expected late this morning through
early afternoon before high clouds move back in later.
Temperatures will continue to fall throughout today as arctic
high pressure builds in. Tonight, lows near zero are expected
inland, with lows in the lakeshore regions between 5 and 15
degrees. Winds are expected to diminish tonight, with
expectations for wind chill temperatures to be near the air
temperatures. A diffuse band of lake effect snow may also push
onshore briefly late tonight, but any accumulations are expected
to be light.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 324 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Today and Tonight:

Accumulating snowfall will wind down northwest to southeast
early to mid-morning, exiting the southeast between 6 and 8 am.
Snowfall rates will be highest early this morning east of a
line from Madison to Monroe, with rates generally decreasing
across the area towards daybreak. Expect snow covered roads this
morning.

Clouds will gradually decrease behind the exiting snowfall,
with a fair amount of sunshine expected through the day as high
pressure builds in. Despite the sunshine, high temps will
struggle into the upper teens to low 20s, well below normal for
early December. Breezy northerly winds will result in wind
chills of single digits above zero through the day.

Could see a dusting of snow for lakeshore areas tonight as
winds turn onshore, which may bring a little lake effect snow
inland. Amounts look low at this time, with up to a half an inch
possible. Clouds are generally expected to increase overnight
ahead of a weak shortwave. Temperatures may bottom out in the
evening, before holding steady or possibly gradually rising
overnight with the increased clouds and some weak warm air
advection aloft.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 324 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Monday through Saturday:

High pressure will bring dry and continued well below normal
temps to the area Monday. A quick moving shortwave may bring a
dusting of snow to southern Wisconsin Monday night as the high
pushes eastward.

A stronger low pressure system is expected to move through the
area later Tuesday into early Wednesday. Models continue to
suggest a more northern track with this system, which could lead
to a rain/snow mix, with the best chance for snow in the
southern forecast area. After a long stretch of below freezing
temperatures, rain could initially freeze on pavement,
particulary any untreated roads. This system bears watching, as
a shift farther north would result in mainly rain for southern
Wisconsin, but a shift south could bring a decent shot of
accumulating snowfall to at least the northern forecast area.

A colder airmass is then expected to quickly return to the area
behind the low Wednesday night into Thursday. A pair of
shortwaves late week will likely bring a return of snow chances
to southern Wisconsin. Still a fair amount of uncertainty with
the timing and strength of these systems.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1011 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Low clouds around 1200 ft will continue to whittle away to the
south this morning, with all of southern Wisconsin expected to
see a few hours of clear skies this afternoon. Additional high
clouds move in late this afternoon and continue through
tonight. In addition, a weak lake effect snow band may lower
ceilings to MVFR from ENW to MKE late tonight through Monday
morning. Any accumulations with this band are expected to be
light. Cloud cover increases across all of southern Wisconsin
Monday afternoon as an additional low pressure system
approaches.

Northerly winds are expected throughout today, with gusts of 15
to 20 kt (highest gusts near Lake Michigan). Winds will diminish
tonight, becoming light and variable into Monday morning. Winds
then shift to become southerly through Monday with gusts around
15 kt.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 324 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Breezy northerly winds are expected today between weakening low
pressure passing by well to the south and high pressure around
30.5 inches building in from the west. Winds will become lighter
tonight under the high.

Winds will then shift to the south by Monday afternoon, as the
high heads eastward ahead of an approaching low. The low around
29.7 inches will track from Minnesota to Sault Ste. Marie Monday
night through Tuesday morning. A period of southerly gales up to
35 knots is looking more likely during this time, with gusts up to
40 knots possible over far northern Lake Michigan.

The next low around 29.1 inches will track across central
Wisconsin Tuesday night and reach southern Ontario by midday
Wednesday. Gales are possible for the south half of the lake
during this time.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 AM Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644 until 9 PM Sunday.

&&

$$

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