455
FXUS63 KMKX 281602 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1002 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Long duration snow event expected starting early Saturday
  morning and persisting through Sunday morning. A Winter Storm
  Warning is now in effect for all of southern Wisconsin.

- Below normal temperatures will likely persist through next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1002 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A few flurries will linger at times mainly northwest of Madison
through at least this morning, but otherwise expect dry weather
and a mix of sun and clouds through the remainder of the day.
The forecast looks on track through the afternoon hours.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 245 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Today:

Quiet and cool conditions are expected today, as high pressure
pushes through the region. Highs will be in the upper 20s to
around 30.

Tonight through Sunday:

Guidance continues to converge on a long duration snow event
for the region starting late tonight/early Saturday morning.
Recent guidance has pointed toward a slightly more northern
track to the system, with increasing QPF as a result. Kept both
QPF and snow to liquid ratios on the conservative side for this
forecast, but this still yields a widespread 6-10 inches of snow
for southern and central Wisconsin. A couple of important
nuances to note:

-This will be an unusually long-duration event for the region,
 with some locations seeing near continuous snowfall for 24+
 hours. The heaviest snowfall rates will occur Saturday from
 late morning through mid evening. This will likely be the
 trickiest timeframe for travel.

-Despite the long duration and fairly uniform distribution of
 QPF/snow, some variations in final amounts will occur. This
 will especially be the case where transient areas of enhanced
 banding occur.

-Southeast flow off Lake Michigan should result in higher
 snowfall rates for lake-adjacent counties. However, the very
 warm lake waters will likely also result in lower snow to
 liquid ratios (i.e., a wetter snow). Temperatures Saturday will
 also be very close to freezing, so accumulation will be less
 efficient. There is higher uncertainty with amounts near Lake
 Michigan as it`s not entirely clear how these factors will
 balance out.

Look for snow to gradually decrease in intensity after midnight
Saturday night, and then end from west to east Sunday morning.
Some blowing and drifting of snow may occur on Sunday as
northwest winds pick up behind the departing area of low
pressure.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 245 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Sunday Night through Thursday:

Very cold air will build into the area heading into next
workweek. With a fresh, deep snowpack and high pressure moving
nearly overhead, look for lows Monday morning to be in the
single digits to around zero (and perhaps below zero in some
locations). Highs Monday look to be in the teens, with another
night of single digits Monday night into Tuesday morning. Some
additional light snow will be possible Monday night as a system
moves through the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys, but at this
time impacts appear minimal.

Active northwest flow then takes hold for mid to late week, with
a few clippers potentially moving through the region. This suggests
temperatures trending toward below average, with a few
opportunities for additional precipitation.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1002 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A few flurries will linger at times mainly northwest of Madison
through at least this morning, but otherwise expect dry weather
and a mix of sun and clouds through the remainder of the day.
Could see ceilings dip to MVFR for a brief period for areas
northwest of Madison through late morning, but most places will
remain VFR. Clouds will increase this evening into tonight
ahead of the approaching winter storm. Cloud bases will also
gradually lower tonight into Saturday as the storm moves in.

It currently looks like snow will begin to fall around 09Z
tonight southwest of Madison, spreading northeast into southern
Wisconsin through late tonight and early Sat morning, beginning
at Sheboygan by 15Z. Snow is then expected through the day
Saturday and much of Saturday night. Widespread snow totals of
6-10 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible.
Snow to liquid ratios away from the lake will average around 15
to 1, with the snow likely a little wetter close to the lake
with ratios possibly as low as 10-12 to 1. Higher liquid
equivalent is likely near the lake though, so snow totals are
not expected to be lower there and will likely even be higher,
especially just a little inland away from the mildest lakeshore
areas. Hourly snowfall rates are expected to be highest Sat
afternoon and evening, as high as 1 to 2 inches per hour at
times.

East to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected during
the day Saturday, becoming northeast to north Sat night behind
the low. Ceilings will drop to the 5 to 10 hft range during the
the bulk of the snow, possibly lower at times during the heavier
snow. Visibilities will be down to at least 1 to 3 miles during
the persistent snowfall, falling to 0.5 to 1 SM during the
more moderate to heavy snow. Not out of the question to see
visibilities drop to 1/4 mile at times when heavier bands roll
through.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 245 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Winds will gradually diminish today as high pressure begins to
move into the area. As that high moves across the lake tonight, light
and variable winds are expected.

Low pressure of 29.8 inches will then track from eastern Kansas
Saturday morning to the southern tip of Lake Michigan Saturday
night, and then reach Lake Huron by mid Sunday while deepening to
29.7 inches. Widespread, moderate to heavy snow will overspread
the south half of Lake Michigan. Brisk southeast winds Saturday
will become easterly and then westerly as the low crosses the
Great Lakes region. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed
for the nearshore waters on Saturday and Sunday. A period of
west gales will be possible for the southern open waters as the
low departs the region on Sunday.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-
     WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-
     WIZ072...3 AM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday.

     Winter Storm Warning...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-
     WIZ065-WIZ066...6 AM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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