730
FXUS63 KMKX 041636
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1036 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold today, with highs in the low to mid teens. Wind chills in
  the -5 to -15 degree range expected this evening into tonight.

- Light wintry precipitation Friday night.

- Several potential chances for snow through mid week next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1035 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Sunny and cold conditions continue today, with temperatures
topping out in the mid teens and then dropping back to the
single digits after sunset. Southwest winds will arrive and
result in -5 to -15 degree wind chills this evening into
tonight. Both temperatures and wind chills will actually warm up
a few degrees late tonight due to the brute-force warm air
advection and increased cloud cover. For Friday, we are
forecasting highs in the 20s.

Sheppard

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 230 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Today and Tonight:

High pressure is building south into the region this morning.
Winds remain breezy as of 2 AM, but will settle over the next
few hours. With clear skies in place, look for lows to fall to
between about 0 and -5 degrees. Wind chills be variable, but
many locations should see readings between -5 and -15 at times,
with a few spots briefly falling to around -20.

Mostly sunny but cold conditions are expected for today, with
highs in the low to mid teens. Wind chills will top out between
zero and 5 above. Clouds begin to increase tonight, with
temperatures not quite as cold--generally in the low to mid
single digits above zero.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 230 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Friday through Wednesday:

Southwest winds will pick up on Friday ahead of a cold front.
Very light precipitation is expected to push south into the
region Friday afternoon, progressing southward through Friday
night. This should mostly be in the form of light snow, though
some forecast soundings are indicating a marginal level of
saturation in the ice growth zone, suggesting that a few pockets
of freezing drizzle will be possible Friday night. This will be
a forecast trend to keep an eye on over the next few days.

Another shortwave will move through the area on Sunday,
bringing a 30-50 percent chance for light snow to the region.
There`s still a fair amount of uncertainty with the track of
this system, and it`s possible the bulk of the precipitation
ends up to our south.

Extended guidance continues to paint an active pattern for the
region through mid week, with multiple shortwaves. While there
is still a lot of variability with timing/strength/impact of
these waves, ensemble guidance seems to be honing in on a more
substantial wave (or two) passing through between about Monday
and Wednesday. This currently looks to be the most favored
window for accumulating snow potential.

Temperatures through the extended look to remain below average,
with highs in the 20s on Saturday and Sunday, and in the teens
on Monday. A slight moderation is possible mid week, with upper
20s to around 30 possible. Lows through the stretch will be in
the single digits and teens.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1035 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Light and variable winds expected today, with sunny skies and
VFR. Southwest winds around 10 KT with gusts upwards of 20 KT
are expected to build through tonight, and some weak low level
wind shear is possible (2,000 ft winds at 30 to 40 KT).
Simultaneously, cloud cover is expected to build tonight, but
generally at or above 5,000 ft, hence VFR is expected to
continue, with dry weather through the TAF period.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 230 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Breezy northwest winds will continue this morning, especially
across the eastern half of the lake. Freezing spray will remain a
concern. High pressure of 30.4 inches will move across Iowa and
then through northern Illinois and Indiana today. As that
happens, look for winds to turn back to a southwesterly
direction by tonight.

Winds will increase this evening to gale force over the northern
half of the lake, as the pressure gradient tightens between the
departing high and an area of low pressure averaging 29.7 inches
moving across southwestern Ontario. A Gale Warning is in effect
from late this evening through mid morning on Friday for the
open water. Freezing spray is also expected during this time.
For the nearshore, a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from
late this evening through late Friday morning.

A cold front will drape across the open waters Friday into Friday
night, bringing lighter westerly winds.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868...9 PM Thursday to 9 AM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 PM
     Thursday to 11 AM Friday.

&&

$$

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