184
FXUS63 KMKX 022053
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
253 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A period of light snow is expected later tonight into
  Wednesday morning, as a cold front moves through the area.
  This may bring slippery roads for the Wednesday morning
  commute.

- The cold front will bring colder temperatures and wind chills
  Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night.

- Continued below average temperatures into the weekend.

- Relatively active pattern this weekend into next week, but
  with low confidence on the details.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 253 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Low stratus remains quite thin across the area. The scattered
out areas near Lake Michigan may linger into early this evening,
before the low clouds move back in. Low clouds may shift out of
western parts of the area as well, with middle to high clouds
moving in for a time this evening before more low clouds move in
later tonight into Wednesday morning.

Modest warm air advection tonight into Wednesday morning should
keep temperatures fairly steady, before a cold front moves
southeast through the area Wednesday morning. The front should
move southeast of the area by midday. The front will bring a
period of light snow to the area late tonight into Wednesday
morning, with some modest low level frontogenesis response and
the modest warm air advection.

The moisture profiles on area forecast soundings are saturated
for a three to five hour window, generally speaking, later
tonight into Wednesday morning. There may be up to one half
inch of snowfall during this period, which may bring slippery
driving conditions for the Wednesday morning commute. Amounts
may be a little higher if the upward vertical motion gets
stronger, but have not seen any indications of this yet.

Winds will then shift northwest Wednesday afternoon and night,
with strong cold air advection bringing colder temperatures and
wind chills into the area. Temperatures in the middle to upper
20s will fall in the afternoon and through Wednesday night, with
lows in the single digits below zero over most of the area by
12Z Thursday. These lows may end up colder than forecast, if
winds decouple and skies clear out.

Wind chills of 14 below to 19 below zero are expected as well
later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and again Thursday
night into Friday morning. At this time, not expecting wind
chills to drop below 20 below zero, but could if lows Wednesday
night get lower than expected.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 253 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Thursday through Tuesday:

Cold temperatures linger Thursday into Thursday night, with
highs only in the 10 to 15 degree Fahrenheit range Thursday.
Warm air advection develops with increasing southwest winds
Thursday night, with single digit temperatures slowly rising
but the cold wind chills lingering.

General west northwest flow at 500 mb should linger across the
region Friday into the early portions of next week, with various
shortwave troughs shifting through the area at times. This will
lead to periodic chances for light snow to occur. The better
chances may be later in the weekend and again early next week,
though the details and timing remain fairly uncertain per
ensembles. Temperatures may gradually moderate closer to
seasonal normal values toward the middle of next week.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 253 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Low stratus in the 500 to 1000 foot AGL range is quite thin
across the area, and the back edge may shift east into the area
this evening. If they do, they will be replaced by middle to
high clouds for a time this evening, before more low stratus
moves back into the area overnight into Wednesday morning. The
breaks for the terminals near Lake Michigan may linger until
early evening, before the low stratus moves back into the area.

Southwest winds will linger tonight into Wednesday morning,
before a cold front moves southeast through the area. The front
should move southeast of the area by midday, with winds shifting
northwest behind it and becoming gusty in the afternoon and
lingering into Wednesday night.

The front will bring a period of light snow to the area late
tonight into Wednesday morning. There may be up to one half
inch of snowfall during this period, with rates under one tenth
of an inch per hour. This may still bring slippery conditions to
runways. Amounts may be a little higher if the front becomes
stronger.

Ceilings should be in the 500 to 1000 foot AGL range generally
later tonight into Wednesday morning, then 1000 to 1500 feet AGL
in the afternoon. Visibility may be reduced to 1 to 4 miles at
times with the light snow.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 253 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A strong cold front will move southeast across Lake Michigan
Wednesday. Gusty southwest winds are expected ahead of this
front tonight into early Wednesday morning, shifting to gusty
northwest winds behind it Wednesday afternoon and night. Winds
will remain just below gales for most the lake, though a brief
period of low end gales is possible Wednesday night over the far
northern part of the lake. Very cold air with this system will
result in periods of freezing spray Wednesday night into Friday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect starting at 9 PM CST this
evening until 6 AM CST Thursday, for gusty southwest winds this
evening into Wednesday morning becoming northwest Wednesday
afternoon and night. Waves of 3 to 5 feet are expected toward
the open waters.

Lighter winds are expected Thursday, with the influence of
strong high pressure around 30.4 inches over Illinois and
Indiana. Another period of elevated southwest winds will occur
Thursday night into Friday, with some gale force gusts possible
over the northern portions of the lake.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 PM
     Tuesday to 6 AM Thursday.

&&

$$

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