334
FXUS63 KMKX 042117
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
317 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind chills in the -5 to -15 degree range expected this
  evening into tonight.

- Light wintry precipitation Friday evening.

- Several potential chances for snow through mid week next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 315 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Tonight through Friday night:

The core of the surface high pressure system is passing overhead
at the moment, hence the perfectly clear skies and nearly calm
wind. As the high weakens and drifts east, southwesterly winds
will begin to develop this evening, and with the snow covered
grounds and mostly clear skies priming the environment for
radiational cooling, wind chills of -5 to -15 are expected to
occur this evening through just after midnight tonight. The
corresponding air temperatures bottom out in the single digits
to around zero. Late tonight, the brute force warm air advection
and increasing cloud cover will allow the temperatures to
increase a few degrees before sunrise Friday morning. WAA
continues into the daytime hours of Friday, with high temps
lifting into the 20s.

A clipper system yields a brief period of 20-50% precip chances
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. The associated
cold front crosses the region around midnight Friday night, with
winds veering northwest and conditions drying out behind it. If
applicable at all, this precip would amount to either a dusting
of snow or a thin glaze / trace of freezing drizzle (or a
wintry mix of both). The uncertainty with the precipitation type
is due to the very shallow nature of the moisture in forecast
soundings, which may or may not reach the DGZ to form cloud ice.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 315 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Saturday through Thursday:

To sum up the entire long-term forecast, temperatures remain
cool, and occasional clipper systems (fast moving low pressure
systems) yield short periods of snow chances.

The passage of a weak surface ridge on Saturday will lead to
relatively slow northwest winds and dry weather, with highs
remaining in the 20s. The first clipper system arrives Saturday
night, delivering snowfall in the ballpark of a dusting to 2
inches. Light snow chances taper off into Sunday morning as the
clipper exits. We`re expecting a light north breeze and highs
in the upper teens to 20s for Sunday afternoon.

Similar clipper systems, some with slightly stronger dynamics,
are then expected off and on into the early half of next week.
High temperatures remain below freezing, likely making their
closest approach to the freezing mark (warmest) on Tuesday or
Wednesday before trending back down.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 315 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Clear skies through the rest of the afternoon, with high and mid
altitude clouds building to broken coverage overnight tonight.
We may see some ceilings as low as 4,500 ft tonight, still VFR
though. Southwesterly low level wind shear is expected late
tonight through early Friday morning, and is included in TAFs as
a 2,000 ft wind at around 40 kt. The core of the low level jet
(LLJ) is centered over central WI tonight, so far southeastern
WI airports (KMKE, KENW) did not receive LLWS in the 18z TAF
issuance, future issuances may add it if positioning of the LLJ
changes or speeds increase.

LLWS dissipates into Friday morning, with a light southwesterly
breeze continuing at the surface. Dry weather is expected
through mid Friday afternoon, from then through Friday evening
there will be chances for light snow or patchy freezing drizzle.
These would only accumulate to a dusting (snow) or a thin glaze
(ice) if applicable.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 315 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Southwest winds will increase this evening to gale force over the
northern half of the lake as an area of low pressure around 29.6
inches moves across southwestern Ontario. A Gale Warning is in
effect from late this evening through mid morning Friday. Freezing
spray is also expected during this time.

A cold front extending south of the low will cross the lake Friday
night. Southwesterly winds remain breezy (25-30 kt gusts) ahead of
the cold front Friday, gradually subsiding and veering northwest
behind it. Northwest winds gradually decline throughout Saturday
then become light and variable Saturday evening as a weak surface
ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Stronger high
pressure tracking southeastward through the Dakotas and a weak low
pressure system tracking eastward past southern Illinois will
work together to drive north winds around 20-25 kt on Sunday.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868...9 PM Thursday to 9 AM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 PM
     Thursday to midnight Saturday.

&&

$$

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