979
FXUS62 KMLB 182001
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
401 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Tonight...Breezy to gusty conditions are present across much of
the area this afternoon, especially around the Orlando metro and
along the immediate coast. RAP analysis shows a tightening
pressure gradient over the FL Peninsula, reflected in some of the
higher wind gusts in the last couple of hours. Observing sites around
Cape Canaveral to Cocoa Beach are reaching gusts of 35 mph and
briefly higher at times. A weak disturbance is moving onshore just
south of Melbourne and providing the focus for some heavier
shower activity. So far, no lightning has been detected in or
around these showers, but it cannot be entirely ruled out along
the coast or just offshore through the evening. Locally higher
gusts to 40 mph at the coast may also accompany this feature as it
moves ashore.

Wind gusts will persist tonight along the coast, reaching 25 to
30 mph at times, but decreasing to 15-20 mph inland. Isolated to
scattered showers are expected to continue with a very low chance
for lightning at the coast and over the Atlantic waters.
Temperatures will gradually fall into the 70s, staying slightly
warmer east of I-95.

Wednesday-Thursday...Mid level ridging remains in place through
tomorrow but begins to flatten as a weak trough of low pressure
approaches the southeast U.S. This is the same feature highlighted
by NHC for a low chance of developing tropical characteristics in
the next few days. At this point, model guidance does very little
with it, other than to provide another wave of moisture and
associated shower activity somewhere along the FL/GA or Carolina
coastline Thursday afternoon into early Friday. Models remain in
some disagreement with regard to the placement and timing of this
feature, but an increasing trend to high chance/likely PoPs is
forecast Wednesday into Thursday. Brief, localized heavy rainfall
is possible as a result, though the QPF remains near 1.20" or less
for most locations through Friday morning. Temperatures each day
will remain near to slightly below normal with overnight lows
ranging through the 70s. A couple of warm low records may occur at
coastal sites due to the persistent onshore flow. Gusty winds are
forecast to continue, reaching 25-30+ mph at times, especially
along the immediate coast.

Saturday-Monday (modified previous)...Upper level high pressure
centered across the Deep South on Saturday will slowly shift
westward through the time, with the axis remaining over the
Florida peninsula. Surface high pressure in the western Atlantic
will build southwestward over the Florida peninsula through the
period. Locally, winds will generally be around 10 mph, with E/SE
winds forecast on Saturday before becoming S/SE on Sunday and
Monday. The east coast sea breeze is expected to form each
afternoon and push inland. Rain chances will remain elevated
through early week, with rain chances persisting into early next
week. For now, kept likely PoPs out of the forecast due to
variability in model solutions. Afternoon highs will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s across the immediate coast, and low to mid
90s across the interior each day. Overnight lows will generally be
in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Tonight...Hazardous boating conditions will continue as easterly
winds 20-25 kt and occasional gusts of 30-35 kt. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for all of the adjacent waters through
at least Thursday evening. Seas will continue to build, reaching
7-8 ft offshore north of Sebastian Inlet tonight and 6-7 ft
nearshore. A stream of isolated to scattered showers is also
forecast, with a very low probability of lightning strikes. Some
of these showers could mix down locally higher wind gusts at
times.

Wednesday-Saturday (modified previous)...Poor to hazardous
boating conditions will continue through late week as a weak
trough approaches the Florida peninsula and southeast U.S. coast.
Onshore flow will persist with winds generally 15-20 KT in the
nearshore waters and 20-25 KT in the offshore waters through
Thursday. Winds will decrease to around 10-15 KT by late week and
into the weekend. Seas 6-8ft on Wednesday will increase to 7-9 ft
on Thursday, before beginning to subside on Friday with seas
decreasing to 4-6ft. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for
all the Atlantic waters on Wednesday, and has been extended in
time through at least Thursday evening. Scattered to numerous
showers and isolated lightning storms will be possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Not the best day for flying. Easterly winds increasing to around
20 kts with gusts to 30 kts, remaining 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30
kts at the coastal terminals while inland terminals settle to
10-15 kts overnight, then picking back again in the morning and
afternoon. Increasing moisture will support mainly VFR -SHRA at
all terminals through the TAF period, but occasional MVFR impacts
will be possible. Best chances for these reductions in the near
term from KMLB-KVRB and maybe KFPR where relatively deeper bands
of convection are moving onshore, but beyond that very low
confidence in location.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  87  76  87 /  30  60  50  60
MCO  76  88  76  88 /  30  50  30  50
MLB  77  87  77  87 /  50  50  50  60
VRB  76  88  76  87 /  50  50  50  60
LEE  77  90  76  91 /  30  40  20  40
SFB  75  89  75  89 /  30  50  40  50
ORL  76  89  76  89 /  30  50  30  50
FPR  76  87  76  87 /  40  50  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley