632
FXUS62 KMLB 291713
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1213 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 931 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

- Poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions persist today. A
  high risk of rip currents is forecast at all local beaches.

- Mostly dry conditions are forecast through today, though some
  isolated sprinkles and showers due to persistent onshore flow
  cannot be ruled out.

- Low to medium rain chances anticipated early next week as
  moisture increases and a front approaches the area. Dry
  conditions forecast mid to late week behind the front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Made some small changes to the forecast based on latest trends,
increasing sky cover and also rain chances (up to 30-40%) along
the Treasure Coast where ongoing light showers continue. Guidance
still favors this activity decreasing some into the afternoon.
However, with a breezy low level onshore flow and sufficient low
level moisture still can`t rule out additional isolated showers
pushing onshore along the coast through the remainder of today,
mainly near to south of Melbourne. Otherwise, forecast largely
remains on track with mostly dry conditions forecast elsewhere
across east central Florida and skies partly to mostly cloudy.
Highs will be slightly below normal in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Today-Tonight...An area of high pressure situated across the
southeastern US will gradually lift northeastward today towards
the Mid-Atlantic. Locally, mostly dry conditions are anticipated
to persist thanks to PWATs of less than an inch. However, winds
veer easterly across the area today, and some low-topped, isolated
shower activity cannot be ruled out across the local Atlantic
waters. There is a low chance for some of these showers to move
onshore due to the easterly flow, so have a 15% chance for rain
primarily from the Cape southward through the morning hours. CAM
guidance then indicates activity waning into the afternoon hours,
with mostly dry conditions prevailing. Temperatures are forecast
to remain near to slightly below normal, with highs in the low to
mid 70s. By tonight, the surface high is forecast to weaken and
push offshore as an area of low pressure and its attendant cold
front move eastward across the central US. Moisture continues to
increase locally thanks to the persistent easterly flow, with a
return of rain chances across the local Atlantic waters overnight.
Warmer tonight with temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s
areawide.

At the local beaches, rough surf and a high risk of rip currents
are forecast today due to higher seas and persistent, strong
onshore flow. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged.

Sunday-Tuesday...The aforementioned cold front moving across the
central US is anticipated to stall out across the southeastern US
late this weekend into early next week, just north of the Florida
peninsula. This will result in persistent onshore flow and
increasing moisture across east central Florida through Monday,
which will support isolated showers across portions of east
central Florida and isolated to scattered showers across the local
Atlantic waters. Monday into Tuesday, and area of low pressure is
forecast to develop along the boundary across the Gulf. This low
will lift northeastward into Tuesday, moving from the Gulf towards
the Mid- Atlantic. This will finally drag a cold front across the
Florida peninsula on Tuesday. Rain chances are forecast to
increase out ahead of the front, with PoPs currently reaching
20-50% areawide, with the greatest rain chances focused near and
north of the I-4 corridor. The environment looks unfavorable for
storm development, so continued to leave out mention of any
thunder for the time being. The front will move southward across
the peninsula into the overnight hours, with activity gradually
diminishing as drier air moves in behind the front.

Temperatures across east central Florida are forecast to remain
in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday through Monday, increasing into
the low to mid 80s on Tuesday. Lows generally remain in the 60s,
with some upper 50s possible across the north on Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Friday...The front sags south of the area early on
Wednesday, with an area of surface high pressure forecast to build
across the southeastern US. Dry air settles across the Florida
peninsula, which will keep conditions mostly dry locally mid to
late week. Northerly winds Wednesday and Thursday eventually veer
to out of the east to south-southeast on Friday, which will help
advect moisture northward towards east central Florida late this
week into the weekend. A return of low rain chances will be
possible late Friday with the next possible frontal passage
occurring over the weekend. Through Friday, afternoon highs are
forecast to be in the low 70s to low 80s, with the temperature
gradient going from north to south, respectively. Lows generally
in the 50s to low 60s areawide.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 931 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Morning Update...Winds coming in a little stronger and seas a
little higher across the Treasure Coast waters, with easterly
winds around to just above 20 knots and seas 5-7 feet. Have
therefore issued a Small Craft Advisory for Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet out to 60 nautical miles that will continue through
this evening. Farther north, small craft should continue to
exercise caution for easterly winds around 15-20 knots and seas
4-6 feet.

Previous Discussion...

Poor boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local
Atlantic waters through at least today and into tonight. Winds
veer onshore as the surface high to the north moves northeastward
towards the Mid-Atlantic, with wind speeds of 15 to 20 knots. Seas
maintain between 4 to 6 feet through Sunday. Small craft should
exercise caution across all local Atlantic waters due to these
poor boating conditions. Late Sunday and into early next week,
onshore winds subside to 10 to 15 knots, with seas generally
between 2 to 5 feet. A cold front is forecast to move southward
across the local Atlantic waters on Tuesday, with winds veering to
out of the south-southwest ahead of it at 15 to 20 knots and then
veering to out of the north on Wednesday behind the front at 10
to 15 knots. Portions of the offshore waters may build back to 6
feet very briefly Tuesday into Wednesday, but the vast majority of
the waters are anticipated to remain between 2 to 5 feet.
Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the local
Atlantic waters each day, with the greatest rain chances forecast
on Tuesday out ahead of the front. High pressure builds in behind
the front on Wednesday, with dry conditions anticipated once
again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1209 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025
Increasing low-level moisture is leading to a broken deck of
VFR stratus confined mainly to FL035-FL050 that will persist
through much of the day into tonight (especially closer to the
coast). Otherwise, breezy east winds with peak gusts of 22-25
knots along the coast will subside after sunset, especially over
interior terminals where they are also expected to back to the
northeast overnight. There is little to no signal for fog
overnight at this time, with meager chances confined to terminals
north and west of our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  77  62  76 /  10  10  10  20
MCO  61  80  63  79 /  10  10  10  20
MLB  64  79  65  79 /  20  20  10  30
VRB  64  79  65  80 /  20  20  20  30
LEE  57  79  60  79 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  59  79  62  79 /  10  10  10  20
ORL  60  79  63  79 /  10  10  10  20
FPR  64  79  65  80 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ555-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Ulrich