953
FXUS62 KMLB 041835
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
135 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 134 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Gradual warming into this weekend before becoming more
  seasonable/cooler early to mid next week.

- Next cold front will move through the area late Sunday into
  Monday.

- Dry conditions through late week, with increasing shower chances
  and isolated lightning storms returning this weekend along and
  ahead of that next cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Rest of today-Friday... Upper high pressure across the Caribbean
will continue to expand across central Florida through Friday. An
upper level low across the Quebec region today will shift eastward
into the New Brunswick area by Friday and out into the Atlantic. At
the surface, high pressure will remain over Florida while it slowly
shifts eastward. A low pressure system will develop across the
western Gulf today before shifting eastward across the northern Gulf
late today into Friday. This will drag a cold front into north
Florida on Friday. Locally, NE to ENE winds at 5-10 mph today will
become light and variable over night before becoming S-SW at 5-10
mph on Friday. Despite increasing moisture along and ahead of the
approaching front, no mentionable rain chances across east central
Florida through Friday.

Temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend, with seasonable to
slightly above normal temperatures today becoming above normal by
Friday. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 70s along and
north of the I-4 corridor, and upper 70s to low 80s everywhere else
today, with low to mid 80s on Friday. Overnight lows will also
gradually warm, with lows ranging from low to mid 50s to low 60s
across the interior, and low to mid 60s across the coast tonight,
and low to mid 60s on Friday. Much like this morning, patchy fog
will be possible late tonight into early Friday morning across east
central Florida. Remember, if you encounter fog while driving, slow
down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

Saturday-Monday... Upper high pressure centered over the Caribbean
on Saturday will slide southward into early next week as an upper
level trough begins to dig across the Midwest and Deep South. A
surface cold front across North Florida on Saturday will finally get
pushed across east central Florida and into South Florida Sunday
into Monday as that trough pushes eastwards towards the eastern US
coastline.  Surface high pressure will then build down across the
Florida peninsula from the Deep South behind the front on Monday,
with flow aloft becoming more zonal. Locally, southwest winds around
10 mph or less on Saturday will veer west to northwest Sunday
evening ahead of the cold front before shifting north to northeast
Monday afternoon behind the front. The pressure gradient will
tighten slightly, especially over the Atlantic waters, on Monday,
with winds becoming breezy at times with speeds at 10-15 mph with
gusts up to 20-25 mph possible. Moisture will increase through the
weekend ahead of the front (forecast PW values around 1.75-2.1")
before drier air moves in behind the front on Monday with PW values
forecast to drop to 0.7-1.0" in the afternoon.

Rain chances return to the forecast on Saturday as moisture is
increasing over the area, with a low to medium (20-40 percent)
chance of rain Saturday afternoon, with the highest chances
occurring along and north of the I-4 corridor. Rain chances continue
Sunday, with a medium to high (30-70 percent) chance of rain through
the day as the cold front approaches the local area. The highest
potential for rain will be from Brevard to Osceola counties
northward. The threat for lightning storms will return on Sunday,
with a low threat (20 percent) for lightning storms across all of
east central Florida in the afternoon through early evening.
Lingering isolated to scattered showers area wide on Monday, with
the highest potential (30-40 percent) occurring from southern
Brevard to southern Osceola counties southward. Drier air will begin
filter down across the area behind the front Monday afternoon, with
mostly dry conditions forecast from Cape Canaveral to Kissimmee
northward, expanding to all land areas in the evening and overnight
hours.

Temperatures will remain above normal on Saturday and Sunday with
highs generally ranging from upper 70s to low 80s across the north,
and low to mid 80s across the south. Seasonable to slightly below
normal temperatures will spread across the local area on Monday
behind the front. Afternoon highs will range from upper 60s to low
70s across the north, and low to mid 70s across the south. Overnight
lows will generally be in the 60s Saturday night before dropping to
upper 50s to near 60 degrees along and north of the I-4 corridor and
low to mid 60s everywhere else on Sunday night as the front is
pushing through. Overnight temperatures continue to drop Monday
night with temperatures ranging from upper 40s to low 50s across the
interior, and low to mid 50s along the coast, except for low 60s
along the immediate Martin county coast.

Tuesday-Thursday... High pressure will continue to build over the
Florida peninsula from the eastern US through the period. Locally,
drier air (forecast PW values around 0.8-1.2") will settle over the
area, resulting in mostly dry conditions (rain chances less than 10
percent each day) over land areas through mid-week. However,
isolated showers will continue to be possible over the Atlantic
waters each day. North to northeast winds at 5-10 mph on Tuesday
will veer north to northwest on Wednesday, and west to northwest on
Thursday. Cooler conditions into mid-week with seasonable to
slightly below normal temperatures are forecast. Afternoon highs
will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the north, and low to mid
70s across the south Tuesday and Wednesday, before warming slightly
on Thursday to low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will be range from mid
to upper 40s to low 50s across the interior, and low to upper 50s
along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 134 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Today-Monday... Generally favorable boating conditions through the
weekend, with conditions deteriorating Monday due to a cold front
pushing through the local waters Sunday night into Monday. High
pressure will continue to build across the local waters through late
week before shifting southward during the weekend. N/NE winds at
around 10 KT today will begin to increase on Friday as the pressure
gradient tightens. Winds will veer S/SW and increase to 10-15 KT on
Friday through Sunday before becoming W/NW on Monday and increasing
to 10-15 KT nearshore and 15-20 KT offshore. Seas 2-4 ft today,
increasing to 5ft in the offshore waters on Friday before decreasing
back to 2-4 ft on Saturday. Seas build on Sunday to 5ft in the
offshore waters, and 4-5ft in the nearshore and up to 8ft in the
offshore waters on Monday. Small Craft Advisories and cautionary
headlines will likely be needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1235 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR to continue thru the TAF period. ENE winds 5-10 kt today
begin to veer S overnight, then become SSW during the day on Fri.
Speeds increase to 8-12 kt after 14z-15z Fri. with upper level
cirrus and FEW030 anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  81  63  77 /   0   0  10  30
MCO  62  83  65  82 /   0   0   0  20
MLB  63  83  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  61  83  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  59  82  65  79 /   0   0  20  40
SFB  61  83  65  80 /   0   0  10  30
ORL  62  83  65  80 /   0   0  10  30
FPR  61  83  63  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Schaper