332
FXUS62 KMLB 071811
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
211 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue, including
  minor coastal flooding, life-threatening rip currents, and rough
  surf with minor to moderate beach erosion especially near times
  of high tide.

- Breezy and gusty onshore winds will continue through much of
  this week.

- A cold front passes central Florida late week bringing a more
  fall-like airmass this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Today... A moisture gradient sets in place across east central
Florida today with modeled PWATs around 1.6" near I-4 and 2.0"
closer to Lake Okeechobee. Model soundings indicate the decreasing
PWATs are mostly reflective of building dry air aloft, and a
moist profile is still observed below 700 mb. This should maintain
rounds of isolated to scattered onshore-moving showers with the
best coverage across the south. Quick moving showers are forecast
to remain shallow with a limited threat for lightning across
southern counties. Even outside of showers, expect breezy and
gusty winds to continue out of the east. High temperatures mostly
reach the mid 80s with upper 80s forecast northwest of the
interior I-4 corridor.

Multiple coastal hazards persist at area beaches today. Rough surf
will allow for minor to moderate beach erosion during the high
tide cycle. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at
all local beaches, and entering the water is not advised. Breezy
onshore flow and high astronomical tides continue to promote
periods of minor coastal flooding at times of high tide.

Wednesday-Friday... A surface trough is pushed toward the eastern
U.S. coast into mid week as high pressure moves across the upper
midwest. A local pressure gradient slightly loosens, as a second
area of high pressure retreats eastward over the Atlantic. Expect
only a minimal reduction in wind speeds, and gusty onshore flow is
forecast to persist each day. Drier air is maintained aloft on
Wednesday with the best chances for rain again across the southern
counties (40-50%). Deeper moisture spreads across central Florida
Thursday and into Friday as a broad area of surface low pressure
attempts to organize near the Straits of Florida and the Bahamas.
Higher rain chances build from south (60%) to north (40-50%) on
Thursday. Coastal convergence looks to increase on Friday, building
PoPs to (60-70%) along the coast with more scattered coverage across
the far interior (~50%). Heavy rainfall looks to return to the coast
late Thursday and into Friday, although discrepancies are noted in
modeled QPF output between global models. High temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s on Wednesday trend downward into late week, widely
spreading the low 80s by Friday. Low temperatures in the low to mid
70s also look to decline late week, mostly in the low 70s Friday
morning except for areas along the immediate coast.

Seas show a diminishing trend through the period alleviating a few
coastal hazards. However, high astronomical tides and onshore flow
will maintain the coastal flood threat. In fact, P-ETTS guidance
suggests tidal levels increasing near Moderate Flood for at least
portions of the local coastline during the Thursday and Friday
morning high tide cycles. Will need to monitor for a potential
Coastal Flood Watch or Coastal Flood Warning as confidence increases
in time. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents will persist
at area beaches, and entering the water is not advised.

Saturday-Monday... Weak low pressure near the Bahamas is forecast to
further organize as it lifts north and eastward across the Atlantic
waters. This feature will pull a cold front across central Florida
into Saturday, bring a taste of fall for the weekend. Scattered
showers linger on Saturday depending on the time of the frontal
passage. Otherwise, a drier post-frontal airmass will keep rain
chances low into early next week. High temperatures hold below
normal each day, mostly in the low 80s. Morning temperatures in the
upper 60s to low 70s on Saturday are forecast to widely spread the
60s Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through early Wednesday
morning as seas of 8-9 ft offshore and 6-8 ft nearshore subside to 5-
6 ft. Onshore winds of 20-25 kts today slacken to 15-20 kts
Wednesday and Thursday. Conditions deteriorate again Friday and into
the weekend as a weak area of low pressure organizes in the
southwest Atlantic and a cold front passes the local waters.
Northerly winds spread across the waters on Saturday, increasing to
20-25 kts across the Volusia waters. In response, seas build to 6-9
ft nearshore and 8-11 ft offshore early this weekend, locally
highest in the Volusia waters. Isolated to scattered onshore-moving
showers continue through Wednesday with the pattern becoming
unsettled into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Scattered showers and isolated storms are ongoing this afternoon,
mainly from VRB southward along the coast, and west of SFB across
the interior. Have maintained VCSH for all interior sites and
from MLB northward, and VCTS from VRB southward at the start of
the TAF. This main line across the Treasure Coast will continue to
shift southward over the next hour or two. Have added a TEMPO for
FPR (18/19Z) for MVFR conditions in the SHRA/TSRA. Latest CAMs
shows convection ending across ECFL around 20Z. So have taken all
mention of rain out of TAFs starting around 20Z. E/SE winds
10-15KT gusts 20-25KT this afternoon will decrease to 5-10KT
overnight, with coastal sites 8-12KT with gusts to 20KT
remaining, especially from VRB southward. Winds become E/NE
Wednesday morning, increasing to 5-10KT by mid-morning across the
interior, and 10-15KT with gusts 20-25KT along the coast.
While most locations will remain mostly dry Wednesday, the latest
CAMS continue to show scattered showers and isolated lightning
storms being possible, especially across the south, starting in
the morning. So have added VCSH starting at 15Z for VRB
southward. VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  85  74  83 /   0  10  20  50
MCO  72  88  74  86 /   0  20  20  50
MLB  76  86  75  84 /  10  20  30  60
VRB  76  86  75  85 /  20  30  40  70
LEE  71  89  72  86 /   0  10  10  30
SFB  72  88  73  85 /   0  20  20  50
ORL  72  88  74  85 /   0  20  20  40
FPR  76  86  74  85 /  20  30  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Watson