699
FXUS62 KMLB 261752
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1252 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

- A very warm afternoon for late November ahead of an approaching
  cold front.

- A few showers and maybe a lightning storm are possible today
  and tonight ahead of the front, then a pleasantly cool and quiet
  Thanksgiving Day is expected.

- Very chilly Thursday night into Friday morning as temperatures
  dropping into the 40s and 50s combined with breezy overnight
  winds produce wind chills in 30s and 40s across parts of East
  Central Florida.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Today-Tonight...Very warm for late November. The ridge axis from
surface high pressure over the western Atlantic reaching tenuously
to Florida ahead of an approaching cold front will produce light
southwesterly to westerly winds, while ridging aloft over the
Caribbean extending over Florida shifts east. Conditions remain
somewhat favorable for patchy fog that could become locally dense
and reduce visibility to less than a mile early this morning,
though most will just see ground fog. Any fog that develops will
clear within an hour or two of sunrise. The offshore winds and
ridge aloft will bring us a very warm afternoon, as high
temperatures increase to the M80s for pretty much all but the
barrier islands (L80s), 5-8 degrees above normal and within 2-3
degrees of today`s high temperature records in a few spot. A
modest moisture surge through the day and night ahead of the front
will be counteracted by very dry air above 800mb, keeping rain
and thunderstorm chances limited to a low (20-30%) chance across
the southern counties most of the day, and a very low (10% or
less) chance across the rest the area this afternoon. Overnight
rain chances as the front arrives are tricky, but despite the
increased moisture (PWATs picking up to 1.3-1.7"), instability is
lacking with MUCAPE less than 500 J/kg everywhere but the southern
coastal counties, and even there generally less than 1,000 J/kg
with MLCAPE 500 J/kg or less. Overall the environment only looks
to support a very low to low (10-20%) chance of showers overnight,
highest across the southern coastal counties.

Thanksgiving Day...Other than some low clouds, which could
produce reduced visibility in the morning if they lower enough, a
pleasant if maybe slightly cool holiday is expected. The front is
forecast to have pushed through most of Central Florida by
sunrise and departed to the south by the late morning, ushering
any early morning showers and storms south or offshore. Starting
the early morning with temperatures ranging from the U50s well
north of I-4 to the M-U60s down south, only increasing to the
U60-L70s along and north of I-4, but still making it to the
U70s-L80s down south (at least cooler than Wednesday). Northerly
winds behind the front will become gusty to breezy, increasing to
around 10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the coast, with gusts up
to 20 mph. Very dry air beginning to filter in from the north and
the gusty/breezy winds will lead to sensitive fire weather
conditions across parts of the northern counties.

Thursday Night-Friday...Very chilly. Northerly winds will
gradually increase through the night to 10-15 mph inland and
around 15 mph along the coast with gusts to 25 mph as high
pressure builds into the Deep South, providing effective cold air
convection (though mixing will offset radiative cooling).
Temperatures will crash after peak daytime heating Thursday,
reaching the L50s across most of the area by midnight, and
bottoming out in the L-M40s north of I-4, the M-U40s across much
of the rest of the interior, and somewhere in U40s-50s across the
southern coastal counties. Winds will push apparent temperatures
down into the M-U30s north of I-4, U30s-L40s across much of the
rest of the interior, and somewhere in the L40-U50s across the
southern coastal counties. Conditions will not be favorable for
frost due to the overnight winds.

Afternoon highs Friday only increase into the 60s, maybe low 70s
for the Treasure Coast, as the pressure gradient remains tight
between high pressure settling over the Southeast and the front
stalling near to north of the Caribbean, continuing breezy/gusty
conditions. Very dry, enough to finally confidently say zero rain
chances again, though the low humidity and winds will lead to
sensitive fire weather conditions expanding to most of the
interior. Still chilly Friday night into Saturday morning, but a
couple degrees "warmer" than the previous night, with lows ranging
from the M40-L60s and min apparent temperatures the L40s-L60s.

Saturday-Tuesday...Model agreement through the extended has
improved with the 00Z guidance. A modest trough swinging through
the northern CONUS will support a developing surface low as it
tracks east-northeast from the Central Plains near to south of the
Great Lakes, and across the southeast Canadian provinces, ushering
high pressure over the eastern seaboard offshore. At this juncture
the trough is not strong enough to push the cold front associated
with the departing low pressure system into Florida, causing it to
stall north of the area. A second, deeper trough swinging all the
way down to the southern US early next week could develop another
low pressure system over the southeast along the stalled frontal
boundary, bringing us another cold front mid next week. Still some
uncertainty in the details, but generally speaking easterly to
southeasterly winds through much if not all the period will
support gradual warming through the weekend and early next week,
and some low to moderate rain chances the first half of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions. The ridge
from surface high pressure over the western Atlantic tenuously
extends to Florida ahead of an approaching cold front, producing
SW-S winds 5-10 kts, backing to the SSW-SE across most of the
waters and the southern coast in the evening with a weak sea
breeze. Seas 2-3 ft. There is a low (20-30%) chance for showers
and a lightning storm across the southern coast and Atlantic
waters, and a very low (10% or less) chance across the rest the
area this afternoon.

Thursday-Friday...Boating conditions deteriorate Thursday as a
strong but mostly dry cold front pushing through Florida and the
local Atlantic waters, becoming poor in the afternoon as northerly
winds behind the front increase to 15-20 kts and seas build to
4-6 ft (highest in the Gulf Stream), then worsening overnight as
winds further increase to 20-25 kts and seas build to 5-7 ft early
Friday morning. Later in the day Friday winds settle to 15-20 kts
as they begin to veer easterly and seas begin to subside, down to
4-6 ft nearshore, but seas up to 8 ft at times will linger in the
Gulf Stream through Friday night. There are low to moderate
(20-40%) chances for showers and low (around 20%) chances for
lighting storms across most of the Atlantic waters and the
southern coast Thursday prior to and with the frontal passage,
then dry conditions as high pressure builds into the Southeast
behind the front.

Saturday-Sunday...Boating conditions remain poor Saturday as a
tight pressure gradient across Central Florida and the local
Atlantic waters between high pressure over the Southeast and the
front to the south produces easterly winds 15-20 kts and seas 4-6
ft. The pressure gradient loosens Sunday as the high slides
offshore, easing E-SE winds to 10-15 kts. Seas settle to generally
3-5 ft, but up to 6ft could continue in the Gulf Stream. Dry
conditions continue Saturday, then rain chances return Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1252 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Mainly VFR ahead of the front this afternoon, with ISOLD SHRA
moving NE twd the KSUA-KFPR corridor thru 00z. Have continued
VCSH for KSUA and added for KFPR aft 21z. A stray lightning storm
cannot be ruled out late this aftn in the KSUA-KFPR corridor but
probs look very low. For tonight, the front will move toward nrn
terminals after midnight with short range guidance pointing to post
frontal stratus and some low cloud development along and behind the
boundary. Have added prevailing IFR conds at KLEE aft 09z and TEMPO
MVFR CIGs for now at KSFB/KISM/KMCO late tonight. Some MVFR CIGs
may linger north of a KISM-KTIX line into Thu morning (13z-15z).
There will be some low shower chcs ahead of the front Thu morning,
but probs look too low to mention with this package.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

A strong but mostly dry cold front will push through Central
Florida Thursday, followed high pressure and very dry air Friday,
bringing sensitive fire weather conditions. Northerly winds behind
the front Thursday increase to around 10 mph inland and 10-15 mph
along the coast with gusts to 20 mph, then further increase
overnight reaching 10-15 mph inland and around 15 mph along the
coast with gusts to 25 mph by Friday morning. Min RHs Thursday
forecast to drop below 40% along and north of I-4, and possibly
below 30% well north, further decreasing Friday to less than 40%
across much of the interior, and less than 30% in Lake and
portions of adjacent counties. Winds currently forecast to remain
below 15 mph where RHs are lowest. Afternoon smoke dispersion
Thursday is forecast to be mostly Poor to Fair due to generally
low mixing heights and weak transport winds, becoming Generally
Good Friday. There are low to moderate (20-40%) chances for
showers and low (around 20%) chances for lighting storms across
the southern counties Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds shift
onshore by the weekend, increasing moisture and improving fire
weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  70  44  61 /  20  20   0   0
MCO  65  73  47  63 /  10  20   0   0
MLB  65  76  49  66 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  65  78  51  68 /  20  20   0   0
LEE  60  70  42  61 /  20  10   0   0
SFB  63  71  44  62 /  10  20   0   0
ORL  64  72  45  62 /  10  20   0   0
FPR  65  79  51  69 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Volkmer